745800+ entries in 0.511s
mircea_popescu: "on
this set of 100 consecutive bets,
the results for X behaviour are .1 and for Y behaviour are .04"
mircea_popescu: ok but it helps if you bolster
that authority claim with actual data
Neil: I'll just say
that, watching bitbet for a while, as I have, I feel waiting pays. It is my belief
that it would benefit from faster decay.
jurov: Neil
that exact case would require manual intervention "o difficulty prediction is > 16% ? drop
the weight sharply"
mircea_popescu: "footwear should be made
to support
taller women because you should see
this swede i'm dating"
mircea_popescu: no lol. i'm claiming
that on
the basis of picking some outliers you can't make general statements.
Neil: mircea_popescu: Are you claiming some fudge for
the first 4 days would fix it? You're smarter
than
that.
nubbins`: mircea_popescu:
that's
the gamble. someone with pocket change could swing it either way
Neil: Adn
the 8BTC bet at
the last minute of
the "16% bet" just in
the last 24 hrs supports my other claim of "betting at
the last minute, under linear decay, pays".
chetty: would you use
the same address
to bet both sides?
Mats_cd03: the burden of evidence lies on
the individual making
the claim
mircea_popescu: evidence
to
the contrary of an unsupported
thesis is not necessary.
Neil: OK, evidence
to
the contrary?
mircea_popescu: much akin
to saying "i've never seen anyone in a green
tshirt depositing more money in
the bank
than
they were
taking out"
Neil: Well
that's 1 out of 2. So 50% sofar
Neil: I haven't seen a single example of anyone (same output address) betting on bitbet making money.
There are numerous examples
to
the contrary.
mircea_popescu: poor advice/waiting pays/harsher
than linear. pick one.
mircea_popescu: inasmuch as we're asking
the same
thing lol, youcan do both at a
time
Neil: Which part? One at a
time.
Neil: mircea_popescu: MisterE no actually, betting both sides is
the way
to play. << I
think, judging from
the public histories on bitbet,
that
this is very poor advice. It seems
that waiting pays; I
think bitbet probably needs harsher
time decay
than linear.
jurov: and volume goes up
then
mircea_popescu: “Assuming
that insight will work with people who are unmotivated
to change is a colossal misunderstanding."
mircea_popescu: month's volume is 1.7btc
tho. someone could easily manipulate it
VanCleef: Is Russia ready
to cut up its plastic? After Visa and MasterCard stopped processing some Russian
transactions in response
to U.S. sanctions, Moscow says it could launch a homegrown payment system
that could be ready in as little as six months
B007: seems
that price follows interest
gribble: I have not seen
tiberiusv.
gribble: I have not seen
tiberiusxii.
jurov: ;;seen
tiberiusxii
gribble: I have not seen
tiberiusxi.
jurov: and
then he prolly gave up
jurov: cazalla he leveled
through
tiberiusv up
to
tiberiusxi
chetty: Inostdal: you should be able
to go right
to
the logs with
the
topic links
MisterE: Hmm wonder if Barbarians at
the gate is any good
ozbot: Obama ladies
touch down in China amid
taxpayer uproar - Washington
Times
chetty: well she is in china, also causing much
trouble
MisterE: no person is worth
that much
chetty: they should revoke
the guys passport
MisterE: it's great
to see for a change
VanCleef: so Putin opened a new account at Rossiya and his monthly salary
to be
transferred
there instead. lolz obama pwnd
ozbot: Dark Arts |
The Verge
nubbins`: k, gonna
try wall street. wish me wakefulness, it's late
ozbot: Urban Dictionary:
TANJ
nubbins`: "man
this sucks, all of our users are young wet hotties. we need some dick up in here"
nubbins`: ^ what a problem
to have, hey?
nubbins`: our site has
too many hot women, men join for free
nubbins`: i can only assume people click on
them, but i'm not sure why
nubbins`: our women are
tired of boys,
they want men
ThickAsThieves: i like when jiggly butt girl is
there
to greet me at kat.ph
ThickAsThieves: the only movies so far
that creep me out
to
turning
them off are japanese
though
nubbins`: they remade it (the original is austrian) but i've only seen
the original
nubbins`: buddy of mine is a big horror/creepshow buff,
threw it on for me once
nubbins`: ever see funny games?
the 1997 one?
MisterE: looks like
there could be suckage
nubbins`: so silvergoldbull (canadian bullion dealer) now accepts btc, but i can't figure out where
they're getting
their rates from
nubbins`: that was
the one
that was all white?
nubbins`: watching
the bletchley circle now
nubbins`: i
think
that last one is a 6, anyway
cazalla: i
thought it was going
to be shit but it was a pleasant surprise
cazalla: oh,
there is a 2012 movie with
the same name
cazalla: oh wait,
that is something else
cazalla: the scene in Frozen with
the wolves, zomg
MisterE: horror /
thriller is not usually a genre I consider
nubbins`: but without
the statutory rape
nubbins`: that's
the audio virus whatsit?
ThickAsThieves: it is what you
think it is, but somehow it doesnt suck
ThickAsThieves: i watched gravity last night,
that was actually pretty good
nubbins`: trying
to choose between wall street, glengarry glen ross, episode 1 of new cosmos, or bed