log☇︎
745500+ entries in 0.494s
mircea_popescu: wao-ender this is going to take a year rather than a weekend.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform could even have tournaments. who makes the most out of 100 btc or w/e
wao-ender: we are having this weekend bithack at our hackerspace, wondering if people would like make some betbot
mircea_popescu: write a google search application that finds answers to bets based on queries derived from bet text,
mircea_popescu: ie, here's a very simple way to have fun as a bright young programmer :
mircea_popescu: people could actually write bots for this.
mircea_popescu: generally speaking mechanical, constraint betting results in better ev than "feelers".
mike_c: yeah, right after i said that i second thought it. lot of the big profits comes from unexpected results.
mircea_popescu: perhaps in the sense of varying it 0 - x, binary like
mike_c: not bad at all. plus you could surely do better by varying your budget on the bets.
mircea_popescu: anyway, 5.x btc profit on a 70ish btc budget as a handicapper is really not that bad.
mircea_popescu: so 66.2 theoretical, 66.16 practical.
mircea_popescu: spikes on the graph
mike_c: thx. it is cool to look at some of the big winners for the house. the mtgox closure caused a huge one. 0.07 btc -> 1.36 btc
mircea_popescu: blame the blockchainz.
mircea_popescu: a well, i tried.
mike_c: not one of the first 3
mircea_popescu: mike_c the point about "it dun really matter so much to correctly identify the house" stands too, for the angle discussed in chat.
mircea_popescu: ha! the house clears 10% ? i had it pegged at about 8%
mircea_popescu: 99`9xx weight = same weight in this sense anyway.
mircea_popescu: 1. take first 3 bets. 2. exclude one. 2.1 either the 1st, if it has the same exit addy as one of the other 2, and the two have same weight, or else the 3rd.
mike_c: not the same weight
mircea_popescu: mike_c take first 3, exclude 3rd. whay problem ?
ozbot: Local artist using Ellen DeGeneres portrait as a face for pro seal hunt - Entertainment - The Telegr
mircea_popescu: now give me a counterexample to that.
mircea_popescu: usually in the 99,995+-2 range
mircea_popescu: but the two you keep always have the exact same weight
mircea_popescu: or else at lower weight than the other two
mike_c: lots of counter-examples to that
mircea_popescu: mike_c the one you exclude a) always has the same output as one of the remainder two and is either made at weight 100k
ozbot: Man who tried to choke daughter gets one year probation - Local - The Telegram
mircea_popescu: mike_c the correct selection for house bets is to take the first three bets of any wager, and exclude one of them
mircea_popescu: i guess im one of the major market foreces there
mircea_popescu: now i look at the market, prices fell an average of 40% across all product classes.
mircea_popescu: also in the news, i took about a week off because of all the press nuttery, during which i stopped buying raw materials
mircea_popescu: you give me the btc
nubbins`: simiar to eve/1btc
nubbins`: mircea_popescu is there a way to exchange btc for whatever the fuck rift uses for currency?
jurov: in transaction detail
ThickAsThieves: something to see how addresses/txs are connected
mircea_popescu: what's that ?
ThickAsThieves: is there a block visualizer website?
pankkake: many atms or other kiosk stuff stuck on the "daylight savings" message
asciilifeform: protocol is promise. helps to sometimes ensure promise is being kept.
pankkake: no, it's the same machine, with 12 drives wired. the setup is clearly ghetto (especially the pci-e extenders to reach the drives outside…)
asciilifeform: analogue 'expellas furca, tamen usque revenit' !
asciilifeform: pankkake: helps to remember that there is really no such thing as a digital circuit
pankkake: I suppose I should blame the hardware… though both are raid6
mircea_popescu: aaand trilema, teh rift guild just went over 1k members
pankkake: I am transferring my data from old to new drives, and I started a checksum verification of the tranferred files, for fun. turns out, a lot weren't transferred correctly
benkay: now that's usin the noggin
kakobrekla: the status of the bet is in json
kakobrekla: and you will get them all
kakobrekla: perhaps the easiest way is to just loop through the ids going from 1 to whatever
ozbot: Postal workers intercept drugs mailed to metro-east | Top Stories | News Democrat
benkay: and i'm not seeing any pagination handles in the 'resolved' rss
kakobrekla: sorry, the resolved rss feed
benkay: kakobrekla: is there a convenient way to get a list of all resolved bets besides scrolling down the search page?
mike_c: hah. nothing wrong with that either :) unless vince mcmahon has some bitcoin
BingoBoingo: I'm still iffy on the whole NBA thing. Might as well open a bet on who wins the whole Wrestlemania thing.
BingoBoingo: mike_c: I Mr. Stern still the commissioner?
the20year3: Got a email back the 13th from the bank saying "We are ready to close" , the contract's closing date was the 24th as requested by the bank. 24th has come and gone and still no closing
mike_c: BingoBoingo: but no point shaving possible here, just 5:1 odds on the eastern conference. that's a good bet.
the20year3: Put an offer on a house about 3-4 weeks ago, telling them we could close in a week
the20year3: man these banks are idiots
mircea_popescu: better w/o the xyz
mike_c: benkay: there's a json feed by tacking ?json on the end of the bet url
BingoBoingo: mike_c: You know I dun really do the basketball thing http://www.thedrinkingrecord.com/2014/03/13/an-overview-of-betable-sports-part-2-basketball/
benkay: kakobrekla, mircea_popescu: where's the bitbet api again?
mircea_popescu: perhaps the least understood topic under the sun
thestringpuller: what has the government done with our money
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [B.SELL] [PAID] 50.50848075 BTC to 4`379 shares, 1153425 satoshi per share
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [B.MINE] [PAID] 2.19917759 BTC to 4`379 shares, 50221 satoshi per share
ozbot: Chemtrail conspiracy theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
benkay: also relevant to Bitcoin: http://amultiverse.com/comic/2010/08/24/welcome-to-the-deathzones/
ozbot: Scenes From A Multiverse » The Crystalline Entity
ozbot: What A Bank Run In China Looks Like: Hundreds Rush To Banks Following Solvency Rumors | Zero Hedge
mircea_popescu: yahoo's pretty good for trollage apparently
ozbot: My wife was raped my four men. I can't live or be with her with that on my mind. I have to leave her
thestringpuller: adjust exposure before time-weight effects...
thestringpuller: Betting boths sides is a way to adjust exposure? How is that controversial?
MisterE: wow that sparked quite the debate about bitbet
novusordo: not sure, haven't gotten mine to play with yet
asciilifeform: novusordo: what does trezor look like to host machine? tty ?
novusordo: on the host computer
novusordo: and also prompts to enter random words between the actual ones
novusordo: it prompts you to enter the words from the bip32 phrase out of order
novusordo: if you take a factory-fresh trezor and you have a bip32 wallet you'd like to put on it
novusordo: so apparently the trezor has a better recovery system than I thought
rithm: bitcoin be killin those encrypted ~ partitions
rithm: 3rd one this year
rithm: i'm just glad my computer works today
asciilifeform: 'don't run from sniper, you'll only die tired' (american folk saying)
nubbins`: o, to die beneath her fists!
nubbins`: gazing upward with hope and joy in their eyes
mircea_popescu: all these folks looking for a mom.
mircea_popescu: nubbins` gotta have that narrow waist etc.
mircea_popescu: i like big women too, but these seem big in all the wrong ways in all the wrong places.
mircea_popescu: aren't they a little... porky ?
nubbins`: crumb took a lotta flak over the years