667800+ entries in 0.395s
bitcoinpete: mircea_popescu: so what do some of
the scenarios of pirate shenanigans look like?
mircea_popescu: if
there ever was a good signal
to gtfo out of us stocks... i dunno what else it could be,.
mircea_popescu: "So here is
the objective of
this post. It is not my aim
to specifically convince anyone
that Uber is worth any specific valuation. What Professor Damodaran
thinks, or what anyone who is not a buyer or seller of stocks
thinks, is fairly immaterial."
mircea_popescu: most "vc"s are exposed
to less btc
than usagi was
three years ago, for crying out loud.
mircea_popescu: nobody getting in
today gets even 100k
together, let alone 3mn,
to keep proportions.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform
the problem was 1mn btc sloshing
together at a
time
the
total circulating btc was like 5mn
mircea_popescu: why put a pike on display just
to stab yourself on
the eye with ? just don't mention statistics at all, and merely go on derping nudely, "i want uber
to be worth moar"
mircea_popescu: "Young math students are warned about
the critical difference between precision and accuracy. Financial models, especially valuation models, are interesting in
that
they can be particularly precise. A discounted cash flow model can lead
to a result with
two numbers right of
the decimal for price-per-share. But what is
the
true accuracy of most of
these financial models?"
assbot: SoylentNews | Police Request Permission
to
take Nude Photo of Minor Sexting Suspect
mircea_popescu: so a lot of
the heartache of discovering one is poor because one is stupid, not because one never "had a chance" is spared
them.
mircea_popescu: "people", ie, nobodies who got in in 2013 got in at a
time
their meagre disposable income already made it impossible for
them
to matter.
bitcoinpete: so
they suck versus more humble, even later, entrants
mircea_popescu: by
the
time you're
that defeated you really have no incentive left
to admit you're stupid.
mircea_popescu: well no. most of
them went on
to "invest" in glbse, be "offended" by mpoe-pr,
then "invest" in whatever,
bitcoinpete: and probably worse off
than people who got in in 2013
bitcoinpete: so another 5 years pass and she humbly comes
to her senses, following
the girls who make
the right decision 7 years priot
mircea_popescu: two years later, she's working
that mfc and wondering "why it all went wrong"
mircea_popescu: but
this idiot with a flashy car
tells her how he's gonna make her a singer-actresss
mircea_popescu: no, more like we
tell
that Columbia girl
that
the best future for her is on her
two knees and with a welted butt in our household
bitcoinpete: in
that we can
try
to make something and he could arbitrarily crush it
mircea_popescu: eminently uninsurable, and
the confusion between
the
two
things pretty much
the #1 killed of insurance businesses.
mircea_popescu: the risk
that your boss may not let you make
the prototype however, for whatever ideological reason, is
the other
type.
mircea_popescu: the risk
that your prototype may not work, for whatever real reason, is one
type, and eminently insurable.
bitcoinpete: or
the opposite of most of
the de-riskified markets (and playgrounds)
mircea_popescu: and an appalling fraction of
the over 30 crowd
to boot
bitcoinpete: this appears
to be one of
those cases where
the cost of uncertainty greatly exceeds
the potential benefits of
the construction
mircea_popescu: and now y'all are better qualified risk managers and generally speaking financiers
than pretty much everyone under 30 on ws.
mircea_popescu: that's why you don't let derps build unstable skyscrapers. not because
the
thing WILL fall, but because
the
thing MIGHT fall
bitcoinpete: right. so
the energy expending in making
the infrastructure robust enough
to deal with pirate's hits are severely costly
mircea_popescu: but
the cost of everyone on
the street insuring against being fallen on ? 1mn over 10 years.
benkay: Mats_cd03: how much
time would making rest-y interface
to bitc
take?
mircea_popescu: bitcoinpete consider
the case of a street where some idiot builds an unstable skyscraper.
bitcoinpete: mircea_popescu: other
than just having a mountain of coins and
the ability
to dispense of
them erratically, how does pirate impact you?
mircea_popescu: <asciilifeform> from a different angle: why no cheap factorygurlz in usa? because
the 'candidates' are instead paid
to sit and wank << false.
the cheap factorygirlz in china come from families which have cared enough about
them
to invested beatings and other very valuable
time.
mircea_popescu: generally,
the sooner agents are brought
to
their knees
the less blood gets spilled.
mircea_popescu: if
there were no pirate and no silkroad whatshisname,
the usg wouldn't be
tempted
today by
the very dangerous heresy
that "maybe it can make it on its own"
mircea_popescu: vs
the 50 idiots who bought pizzas and lost wallets and whatnot.
mircea_popescu: consider group 1 of 50 idiots who "invested" with pirate,
thus creating for me
the problem of
there existing a pirate, something im still dealing with.
mircea_popescu: whereas group 2 just spends it,
therefore merely wasting resources.
benkay: i'm living
through a fog of back pain
today so forgive
the retardation
mircea_popescu: benkay because group 1 was "investing it"
therefore wrecking capital allocation
benkay: <asciilifeform> it isn't wasted 'correctly'
though. it ends up feeding folks who ought
to have gone hungry // <mircea_popescu> asciilifeform
that's
the minor part of
the binomial.
the major part is
that it is removed from folks who shouldn't have had it. // wait how is
taking
the money from people who shouldn't have it and giving it
to others who shouldn't have had it either not subtracting a from x and
then adding a back
to x?
mircea_popescu: but
the reason
these derps are on kickstarter and bitcointalk instead of whatever mine isn't
that
they had enough money and bought
their way out.
mircea_popescu: as long as
the scammers actualy waste it, rather
than keep it,
this is financial sterilisation.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform
that's
the minor part of
the binomial.
the major part is
that it is removed from folks who shouldn't have had it.
mircea_popescu: which is kinda why
the headlines read like
they did, a few years ago. "x bank writes off y bilions"
mircea_popescu: the most important economic activity in a runaway inflation macroeconomy is
the writing off of bad debts.
mircea_popescu: of course, actually wasting money is a net positive for
the us system.
mircea_popescu: we're in postmodernism here, and so
therefore postsanity.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform sane people also aren't on kickstarter, nor do
they
think everyone's
their peer, nor do
they
think
they have something
to "contribute" in random fields
that never heard of
them.
mircea_popescu: the problem with kickstarter and
the shit
trying
to copy it isn't
that it wastes a lot of money, but
that it wastes it pointlessly.
mircea_popescu: assbot: Kickstarter project spent $3.5M
to finish a working prototypeand ended in disaster | Ars
Technica << punkman
to be fair,
that's not really either important or making a lot of sense. sometimes prototypes fail, which is why
they're called prototypes. i don't
think you can find any item which didn't have millions "wasted" in prototyping
fluffypony: "Shut up
there or i will fuck you in hole between buttocks."
mircea_popescu: "I will rape you fucking partridge. I am more legit
then you. I am sure
that your account is hacked and you are not
the one you are
trying
to show. Shut up
there or i will fuck you in hole"
gribble: Error: For identification purposes, you must be authenticated
to use
the rating system.
mircea_popescu: "Huge investors are consolidating here,
that's good sign. You found
this
topic very fast. Excellent. Big
things in work."
mircea_popescu: "My contribution in
the innovative structures last years filled out 88% of my
time."
mircea_popescu: the consumer end is cursed
to be forever consumer facing.
fluffypony: "broadcasting
transfers rebuilding musing searching resources spreading means handling experience"
mircea_popescu: it won't soon end. next move is rap derps going on about
their bitcoin creed
fluffypony: I'm Riccardo with
two c's (Italian) - Ricardo with one c is Spanish / Portuguese
mircea_popescu: "I am Mr Ricardo, one of
the first bitcoin miners early in 2009, prosperous engineer, social policymaker and developer of different marketplaces everywhere in
the network."
benkay: our fictions are less
than yours
assbot: BitBet - Brock Pierce
to resign at BTC Foundation :: 0.3 B (3%) on Yes, 10.08 B (97%) on No | closing in 1 month 2 weeks | weight: 45`677 (100`000
to 1)
BingoBoingo: bitcoinpete: If you
thing bitcoind
takes up a lot of hard drive space
though...
bitcoinpete: well
there ya go, i should know better
than
to chime in on armoury's guiness
bitcoinpete: fluffypony: "1. passes kept in a plaintext file" <<
those kids