log☇︎
626800+ entries in 0.412s
wyrdmantis: next target $350 ?
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 395.88, Best ask: 396.7, Bid-ask spread: 0.82000, Last trade: 398.3, 24 hour volume: 26795.95626919, 24 hour low: 392.0, 24 hour high: 450.73, 24 hour vwap: 423.482238781
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 400.0, Best ask: 400.99, Bid-ask spread: 0.99000, Last trade: 400.0, 24 hour volume: 25747.56203446, 24 hour low: 400.0, 24 hour high: 450.73, 24 hour vwap: 424.167684521
Duffer1: almost there
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 405.99, Best ask: 406.0, Bid-ask spread: 0.01000, Last trade: 406.0, 24 hour volume: 24319.45764654, 24 hour low: 406.0, 24 hour high: 450.73, 24 hour vwap: 425.943838324
BingoBoingo: Oh the Darien!
mircea_popescu: just curios, anyone remember the scottish attempt to colonise the new world ?
asciilifeform: anyone who is bedevilled by the question of where amerikanische dept of vaterlandische seekoority is gonna get ten thousand 'terroristes' to hang - that's where.
asciilifeform: a 'gulch' or 'compound' or whateverthefuck the turdmeister of the day calls it - doubly so if pitched with fanfare to the drooling hordes - is an elementary honeypot, whether deliberately built as such or not.
mircea_popescu: it's incredible just how homologously stupid these derps are.
mircea_popescu: by the book bitcoin "unintentional" scam this thing.
mircea_popescu: And so I decided that since I was already roped into this by association I had two choices. To stop promoting GGC and go public with the reasons why I was uncomfortable or to continue to promote it and hope it works. I chose the latter and very quickly money began flooding into the project and I began to think that maybe this would all work out and maybe Ken really knew what he was doing."
mircea_popescu: done and that GGC would have no problem pre-selling the lots to pay for the land. He also told me that he had negotiated a deal in such a way that even if the full payment can't be made in time that we could extend it.
mircea_popescu: "Since I had already brought in thousands of leads to GGC throughout 2012 and the start of 2013 and Ken had begun to market this new property that GGC didn't even own I was very distressed. However, at the same time, the amount of interest was staggering. I knew there would be demand for a project like this but I was amazed how much interest there was. Ken again told me that this is just how these type of deals are
dub: hey, smaller target to nuke
Duffer1: sure to follow
assbot: Glenn Beck is Planning a $2 Billion Libertarian Commune in Texas | Dallas Observer
mircea_popescu: basically the dollar vigilante thing is going to be prosecuted for fraud next year.
mircea_popescu: Also, he had hired some sales staff (all TDV readers) and all of them were emailing me telling me that what Ken had just done was crazy and he was trying to get them to sell a property that wasn't owned by GGC without any real details even about the property, how much water or water rights it had and whether it could be rezoned! They all said they were going to quit but Ken had begun to move forward and market it."
mircea_popescu: "A few months passed and there wasn't too much developing when I got an email from someone (not even Ken) in June of 2013 that he had just committed to purchase a property with secure water rights near the initial property for over $6 million... and it had to be paid in full within three months!
mircea_popescu: ingenuity, yes. they're about as ingenue as a 9 year old girl.
mircea_popescu: fucking children. where are ye buffett with your "the incredible productive assets and unlimited human ingenuity existing in America". show them to me baby. what productive ?
Duffer1: ha so it was scam from start to finish, but now this dingleberry is blaming "ken"
mircea_popescu: it'd have been "unbusinesslike", because that's "totally normal" in "business".
mircea_popescu: now he's spilling the beans. he couldn't do this post that same day.
mircea_popescu: and the bonus being that for all this time HE LIED ABOUT IT
mircea_popescu: Duffer1 ^ like that.
mircea_popescu: Ken told me it wouldn't be a problem and he'd get it fixed. And, while I had already begun to market the property I was generally okay in knowing that the four founders had bought a large piece of property that, at worst, they could live on and/or resell and no one would get very hurt from this mistake.
mircea_popescu: Very quickly after the purchase of the property I received an email from Ken that there was a lot of errors and the property not only can't be rezoned for 3,000 lots but only for 12! And, it had no water rights for much more than 12 livable units!
Duffer1: i'm sure this all ended well
Duffer1: 50/50 partners on the deal (with a certain percentage for.. the investors..
mircea_popescu: 50-50s ar for the qualified people in question. there is NOTHING, nothing at all, no benefit, zero, zilch, gulch for the guys with the "idea" or the "vision". fuck your vision and get lost, it's not worth a cupful of piss.
mircea_popescu: e plan was for us to bring in qualified people to help us develop the property as I brought in the marketing interest for lot purchasers. "
mircea_popescu: "I was assured that the property could be rezoned (at least somewhat) and that it had water rights and I returned to North America and Ken and I agreed we would be 50/50 partners on the deal (with a certain percentage for Cobin and his partner and for the founding investors) and I told Ken that I had no time nor qualification to operate or manage a real estate development so he would be the Managing Partner and that th
mircea_popescu: listen kids. a) this isn't how any business works ; b) "totally normal" is no argument ; c) don't be this loser. don't be the 9 yo kid telling the tall tale about how you "nearly" got into a fist fight with the bad boys that ruined your sunday clothes.
mircea_popescu: Excited by the property and the potential I decided to trust Ken on his knowledge of how to do real estate deals and we then raised the money with four key investors who we still to this day call "the founders". All were TDV readers and they were excited about the potential.
mircea_popescu: By that point I had had enough. "I don't do business that way," I said, and nearly got into a fist fight with Ken Johnson over it. However he and the others all assured me that this was "totally normal" in the real estate business to do... and over time they, and especially Ken, talked me into doing it. Ken told me, "this is how the real estate business works."
mircea_popescu: Everyone at the table told me that it was a "sure thing" which I found preposterous. But then, Cobin, his partner and Ken started talking about putting a down payment on the property with a "rubber cheque". They were essentially saying that we would give the owner a cheque that had no real money backing it and then raise the funds to buy the property.
mircea_popescu: My first thought was that it would be terrible to turn this serene, perfect mountain valley into a complete suburban-like area. And my second thought was, "3,000 lots? Doug Casey has been operating La Estancia de Cafayate for more than five years and hasn't even sold 200 lots!"
mircea_popescu: We sat down for dinner in Santiago with John Cobin and his partner who had brought us the property and that's when things started to get strange. Cobin and his partner had some bizarre plan to zone a few thousand acres with 3,000 lots including golf courses, hotels and all manner of grandiose things. They actually had a business plan that went into the billions of dollars in revenue.
mircea_popescu: except instead of addressing the lordship, they swindle innocent old people, the traditional victims of psychopathic piano salesmen.
mircea_popescu: "I first wrote about La Estancia as being "Galt's Gulch" in 2011. I went on to talk throughout much of early 2012 about how exciting I found the concept and how I would like to do one myself." fucking preachers without a church, teenaged boys trapped in sagging old bodies trying to get patrons to carve them a parish.
mircea_popescu: sort of thing.
The20YearIRCloud: Yeah, not on the rez
mircea_popescu: "Dear Hearts and Gentle People" is a thing for a fucking reason.
The20YearIRCloud: There are still quite a few hippie communes in the US
mircea_popescu: the more annoying you are to larger groups of people, the less advisable it is to go into a fucking ravine. stick to the town, everyone's annoying there.
mircea_popescu: why do they hide in well populated urban areas ?
mircea_popescu: why the fuck do you think feminists don't go to hide in utah on a farm ? perhaps because they don't want to end up on the receiving end of the stick, like the mormons ?
mircea_popescu: but for people to try and create a "bitcoin" or "ayn rnd" or w/e community.... this is so idiotic it defies description.
mircea_popescu: but these are all practical considerations. i wouldn't do this even as a banal every day person.
The20YearIRCloud: it'd be like me throwing a dart at a map of Ohio and saying "I'm gonna build an acid plant here, it's sure to make money!"
mircea_popescu: im not paying someone to move ~there~
The20YearIRCloud: in the sticks in a somewhat economically hostile country without quality advisers/professionals to help guide decisions
mircea_popescu: decimation i was just wtf'ing now, looking at it. really, pictures of one jar of honey, a bunch of SIGNS and a bunch of mountain range ? THAT ?
mircea_popescu: hardy pioneers mosty died there.
decimation: my spindy-sense was tingling when I went to their website a few months ago and they had no details whatever
mircea_popescu: for the record, i agree with both negative estimates. it is incredibly stupid to go out in the fucking sticks, if you're on a budget.
mircea_popescu: goes with the argentina bashing some other guy was doing linked earlier.
The20YearIRCloud: recently they have
mircea_popescu: i had no idea they had good drama.
The20YearIRCloud: 1st rat to jump ship
assbot: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly on Galt's Gulch Chile
mircea_popescu: maybe that's th estory here : bets more than 6 mo out are too far out.
mircea_popescu: it just occured to me : the berkshire bets happen just as it crossed the 6 months threshold.
The20YearIRCloud: but it isn't in the cards for 5 years ors o
The20YearIRCloud: i've got many that want to do it
decimation: yeah the one that was a total scam
mircea_popescu: or w/e that was
decimation: ownership would assist in the embellishment
The20YearIRCloud: Some do that
The20YearIRCloud: Which specific thing decimation ?
The20YearIRCloud: depends on the value of the resources I have ,defendability, ect
decimation: The20YearIRCloud: it seems that this could be a 'marketing opportunity' for a real estate baron
mircea_popescu: would you use it to defend your house or get a different guard for it ?
mircea_popescu: so suppose you had that army from ten lines back.
The20YearIRCloud: The guys i know who are in similar positions have done the same
mircea_popescu: well that's that, you've got an aesthetic preference :)
mircea_popescu: suppose you were a billionaire, and owned a real estate company that owned about ten thousand units on average in each state.
mircea_popescu: let's work this another angle.
mircea_popescu: well, maybe. i dun see it, but then again, each his own castl.e
The20YearIRCloud: And from what i've personally seen, working with people who buy, own ,maintain , manage, get divorced, declare bankrupcy, have their house burnt down, find radon/asbestos/lead paint, that overall real estate isn't a bad investment for your common guy
mircea_popescu: if you can't be bothered to own multiple, rent.
mircea_popescu: if you're going to be into real estate, own multiple.
mircea_popescu: The20YearIRCloud that's not the mindset. merely that owning one house is more hassle than its worth
decimation: The20YearIRCloud: how would you plan to keep the 'raw land' if you don't have an army to help you?
The20YearIRCloud: But , if you're in the mindset that everything is going to collapse imminently, then there's few good investments outside of raw land, weapons and food
The20YearIRCloud: Well, since data was collected, it shows itself to be a relatively good investment (not the best mind you) but one that's pretty decenty
mircea_popescu: not sure how far i'd trust that trend, but anyway.
decimation: that might be true, but it ain't 1900 anymore
The20YearIRCloud: and back then the USG had very, very little involvement in the market
The20YearIRCloud: And, when you look back on real estate prices in the US from 1880-1920, it still was a pretty stable pricing trend
The20YearIRCloud: and even then, real estate is local based on state law/local laws, the laws I encounter here in ohio are completely different than CA or NY
mircea_popescu: or at least made, da fuck knows what's it like there anymore.
The20YearIRCloud: The total spending of the us realestate sector for lobbyists vs the others is pretty slim
mircea_popescu: strippers make $$$ kinda ll the way to the middle.
decimation: also the market is extremely distorted by USG, which is run by real estate agents and lawyers, who all want to get their piece of the pie
The20YearIRCloud: That's the case with virtually any industry that's on comission
decimation: The20YearIRCloud: many real estate agents don't make jack shit, only the good ones make $$$
mircea_popescu: the wisdom of the crowd doesn't go too far.