626600+ entries in 0.355s
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin
to surpass Berkshire as an investment :: 1121.08 B (40%) on Yes, 1695.6 B (60%) on No | closing in 4 months 4 weeks | weight: 44`196 (100`000
to 1)
jurov: that's cuz i made a
testing
tx
Duffer1: has anyone stepped up
to claim
the massive no bets?
mircea_popescu: see kakobrekla,
this is how cumstomer support is done, not
the stuff you do!
Nick___: all
the same, my compliments
mircea_popescu: Nick___ seems a
tx failed
to propagate properly. sorry for
the inconvenience. will be rebroadcast presently.
thanks for reporting.
assbot: BitBet - Russia or Ukraine formally declares war on
the other before September :: 0.03 B (12%) on Yes, 0.22 B (88%) on No | closed 6 days 17 hours ago
assbot: BitBet - Russia or Ukraine formally declares war on
the other before September :: 0.03 B (12%) on Yes, 0.22 B (88%) on No | closed 6 days 17 hours ago
mike_c: Nick___: which bet was yours? hover over
the 'time' column
to get a link
to
the bet.
Nick___: do you want
the addresses i paid into or
the ones i'm supposed
to be paid out of?
assbot: BitBet - Russia or Ukraine formally declares war on
the other before September :: 0.03 B (12%) on Yes, 0.22 B (88%) on No | closed 6 days 17 hours ago
Nick___: I am looking for some help. One of
the winning bets
that closed on bitbet did not pay out
to my addresses, looking for someone
to look into it. Can anyone help?
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 401.77, Best ask: 402.0, Bid-ask spread: 0.23000, Last
trade: 402.92, 24 hour volume: 34354.57634559, 24 hour low: 378.78, 24 hour high: 436.85, 24 hour vwap: 408.704816241
mircea_popescu: that 50 btc diff bet ended up 800 btc on
the winning side
two weeks out.
mircea_popescu: mike_c
that's not even half of it. even 1k on either side wil probably draw reaction. i'd guess if you drop 5k on a side you'll get more volume on
the other just on general principle.
mircea_popescu: except
the problem is i don't see any large march brk puts hgaving happened
this week
assbot: Bet 786 Analysis - Bitcoin
to surpass Berkshire as an investment - Btc Alpha
mircea_popescu: if he wrote brk-a puts and he somehoiw has a default bitcoin put by some reason (say,
the reason being large holdings)
then
this is a +ev move
mircea_popescu: i suppose
the statement would be "someone who's short
the "up up up!" "
mircea_popescu: yeah he can be somewhat short bitcoin but not
THAT short
mircea_popescu: (also anyone who reads
the logs, which by now is
tens of
thousands of people)
mircea_popescu: in finance
there's no constants. just vairables with
the appearance of constance in context.
mircea_popescu: mike_c im not even sure what it's short on. but prolly bitcoin more
than berkshire atm.
mike_c: jborkl:
totally unsolicited advice: interview format might be good for
this one.
jborkl: yes it is ,
the amount has become very large. Let me get
the basis of
the article
together and I will come back for more details and opinions
mike_c: but
the story is hot now. 1500 BTC bet short on bitcoin sounds like a juicy headline.
jborkl: point
taken mike_c,
the bet resolves so far out I have just been waiting
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform it does, but im not giving it. let
the wise have an easter egg.
mircea_popescu: this is well revolutionary, im noteven sure
the chinese have access
to such performance.
los_pantalones: larger bets in vegas
they make you walk up
to
the window
to get a special quote
mircea_popescu: where else can you drop 50k on a side and not appreciably swing
the odds.
mircea_popescu: the beauty of liquidity : bitbet can actually cover any bet at
the stated odds well up
to 100 BTC.
mircea_popescu: mats_cd03 she's reasonably hot
twist, for as long as
that lasts.
mike_c: if i ran
the chamber of commerce i likely have already written a dozen articles about bitbet :)
mats_cd03: that sounds like an interesting enterprise i'd like
to be a part of.
mircea_popescu: mike_c what if you ran
the bitcoin chamber of commerce ?
mike_c: man, if i ran a site called bitcoin news i would be knocking down bitbet's door
to get an interview about
this huge bet going on.
jborkl: oh, I
thought we were
talking about something else
mats_cd03: i
think he made it pretty clear he wasnt going
to hedge
jborkl: los_pantalones> MP goin
the other way ? <-- I
think he goes both ways actually
punkman: 150% profit on
the original 1000,
that's gonna be nice
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin
to surpass Berkshire as an investment :: 1121.08 B (40%) on Yes, 1695.6 B (60%) on No | closing in 4 months 4 weeks | weight: 44`211 (100`000
to 1)
kakobrekla: it will
tell us about 4 btc but not 250 ?
[]bot: Bet placed: 4 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin
to drop under $350 before November"
http://bitbet.us/bet/1034/ Odds: 59(Y):41(N) by coin, 49(Y):51(N) by weight.
Total bet: 20.70228689 BTC. Current weight: 52,003.
rithm: aww even if i died my bouncer is paid up for some
time
rithm: i had brain surgery
this week
thestringpuller: interesting note. recently i realized brk-a has less market cap
than AAPL
thestringpuller: los_pantalones: i was just doing some basic arithemetic against
the BRK-A bet
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 401.08, Best ask: 404.64, Bid-ask spread: 3.56000, Last
trade: 401.08, 24 hour volume: 36354.50292038, 24 hour low: 378.78, 24 hour high: 436.85, 24 hour vwap: 408.94504521
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 402.99, Best ask: 403.5, Bid-ask spread: 0.51000, Last
trade: 402.99, 24 hour volume: 36387.30268549, 24 hour low: 378.78, 24 hour high: 436.85, 24 hour vwap: 408.974711561
xmj: ThickAsThieves:
think some more
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin
to surpass Berkshire as an investment :: 1121.08 B (44%) on Yes, 1445.6 B (56%) on No | closing in 4 months 4 weeks | weight: 44`218 (100`000
to 1)
kakobrekla: []bot> Bet placed: 250 BTC for No on "Bitcoin
to surpass Berkshire as an investment"
http://bitbet.us/bet/786/ Odds: 44(Y):56(N) by coin, 60(Y):40(N) by weight.
Total bet: 2566.68146022 BTC. Current weight: 44,220. < usg found more coin in
the couch?
xmj: that'd make him
the Good person.
xmj: and i just might, what with my exposure
to neoreactionary
thoughts...
xmj: chetty: read
the blog, it doesn't matter who is evil
chetty: <xmj> and i
think mp is my hidden evil
twin
that's why we hate each other so //how do you know you are not
the evil one?
xmj: ThickAsThieves: what made you
think about Sigmas?
assbot: Your Evil
Twins and How
to Find
Them
pete_dushenski: mircea_popescu:
the more annoying you are
to larger groups of people,
the less advisable it is
to go into a fucking ravine. stick
to
the
town, everyone's annoying
there. << or why jooz are avowed urbanites.
ThickAsThieves: i do believe
there is a certain phenomenon about hating your own
traits in other people
xmj: and i
think mp is my hidden evil
twin
that's why we hate each other so much.
[]bot: Bet placed: 250 BTC for No on "Bitcoin
to surpass Berkshire as an investment"
http://bitbet.us/bet/786/ Odds: 44(Y):56(N) by coin, 60(Y):40(N) by weight.
Total bet: 2566.68146022 BTC. Current weight: 44,220.
xmj: ThickAsThieves: Moving from Sigma
to Alpha is realizing
that
the current social systems suck,
that you can do better, and
that you will do so by disruption.
pete_dushenski: mircea_popescu: so you make a commitment
to a house
that exceeds
the commitment you make
to
the woman in question. seems a bad equity play. << it's a
terrible equity play. but plebs don't
think in
terms of +ev, only in
the emotional "nao"
xmj: ThickAsThieves: basically an alpha without a drive
to LEAD people and with a drive
to be left alone.
ThickAsThieves: it's funny i was literally
trying
to
thnk of a name for
this 20 min ago
atcbot: >> No data returned from CoinMiner.net << [PityThePool Hashrate]: 117.28 GH/s [iSpace Pool Hashrate]: 1.24
TH/s