572900+ entries in 0.349s
mircea_popescu: there;s going
to be a flood of
these.
the marginal cost
to make small metal discs is about zero
nubbins`: ben_vulpes yes, newspapers
too 8)
mircea_popescu: something
tells me
this is going
to be
the biggest problem of bitcoin finance.
to earn a living as a rentier you'll have
to own a shitton of 'em.
mircea_popescu: anyway, i suppose in all fairness
the byzantino-rabinical approach
to
the written
text as deployed for
the needs of bitbet is a special kind of hell for all esl speakers.
mircea_popescu: yeah,
turns out running a safe investment fund in btc is harder
than in usd. who'd have
thunk it!
[]bot: Bet placed: 4.99979999 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall before Mar 2015"
http://bitbet.us/bet/1058/ Odds: 90(Y):10(N) by coin, 85(Y):15(N) by weight.
Total bet: 21.46220824 BTC. Current weight: 60,523.
mircea_popescu: and if it does, no lost anyway, it's just a matter of how
the yes pot is split up.
mircea_popescu: kinda impossible for
that clause
to affect you at all if price doesn't go under 250.
leen_: if i place a bet on no now and pric doesnt go under 250 i win
the amount stated at
th calculator if noobne else bets?
mircea_popescu: but what
the bet says is
that if bitcoin goes under 250
tomorrow, all yes bets but
the first
two wil be refunded.
leen_: and if i win
the bet
mircea_popescu: well i don't know
the future for sure, as it happens. just kinda close.
leen_: i know
that will not happen but just as an example
leen_: and if nobody else bets i get
the money stated in
the calculator?
leen_: so
they dont get refunded?
mircea_popescu: and it's a moot point in any case,
the 30th was 4 days ago.
BingoBoingo: The odds move anyway,
the calculator is just
to be used as a rough guideline.
mike_c: the point leen_, is
to avoid late bettors who
try
to bet when
the outcome is nearly certain
leen_: but
the calculator uses
them
to calculate
the profit of
the no bet
mircea_popescu: you're misreading it'd seem. what
the bet says is
that
the first
two yes bets never get refunded
leen_: then on a no bet i dont get
their earnings
leen_: if
the first 2 bets get efunded
leen_: which is not
true in
this case
leen_: Bitcoin
to drop under $250 before 2015
The price of one Bitcoin in USD will drop below $250 before January 2015 as per Bitstamp . If
the difference between a given "Yes" bet
time and
the bet's closing
time is less
than one week, such bets will be refunded minus fee. First
two "Yes" bets are excluded from
this rule.
leen_: ITS WRITTEN IN
THE STATEMENT
leen_: i needed
to contact you here someone said
to me in mail
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin
to drop under $250 before 2015 :: 1.73 B (15%) on Yes, 9.79 B (85%) on No | closing in 3 weeks 2 hours | weight: 92`554 (100`000
to 10`000) ... (
http://bit.ly/1wm4weF )
mike_c: only a few blocks left
til it resolves
leen_: need
to speak
to mircea_popescu
[]bot: Bet placed: 10.0008 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall in 2014"
http://bitbet.us/bet/871/ Odds: 91(Y):9(N) by coin, 59(Y):41(N) by weight.
Total bet: 59.42962981 BTC. Current weight: 7,083.
[]bot: Bet placed: 20 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall in 2014"
http://bitbet.us/bet/871/ Odds: 91(Y):9(N) by coin, 59(Y):41(N) by weight.
Total bet: 59.42962981 BTC. Current weight: 7,083.
[]bot: Bet placed: 4.4999 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall in 2014"
http://bitbet.us/bet/871/ Odds: 91(Y):9(N) by coin, 59(Y):41(N) by weight.
Total bet: 59.42962981 BTC. Current weight: 7,083.
[]bot: Bet placed: 2.49 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall in 2014"
http://bitbet.us/bet/871/ Odds: 91(Y):9(N) by coin, 59(Y):41(N) by weight.
Total bet: 59.42962981 BTC. Current weight: 7,083.
mike_c: don't
tap on
the fish
tank.
mircea_popescu: What kind of retard created
this bet? Closing in 5 months?? why??? a bunch of people are just going
to bet on Yes whenever
they see difficulty is going
to be down during
the year, what's
the point of
this bet??
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin difficulty
to fall in 2014 :: 16.87 B (75%) on Yes, 5.56 B (25%) on No | closing in 2 weeks 3 hours | weight: 7`086 (100`000
to 1) ... (
http://bit.ly/1wm0LWu )
mircea_popescu: it's funny how
the free market naturally evolves
towards a corner
to wedge itself in.
ben_vulpes: why would
the general public buy asics?
mircea_popescu: the results of
that market becoming "usgized", which is
to say,
they stopped selling
to
the general public.
ben_vulpes: which would be first
time in
the asic history?
gribble: Bitstamp BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 380.57, Best ask: 380.7, Bid-ask spread: 0.13000, Last
trade: 380.68, 24 hour volume: 6448.20538594, 24 hour low: 375.23, 24 hour high: 382.86, 24 hour vwap: 379.491514355
gribble: Next difficulty estimate | 40070721940.0 based on data since last change | 40835307545.6 based on data for last
three days
mircea_popescu: <mike_c> oh, nevermind.
those are minimums. you can't be closer
than
that, but have no responsibility
to be particularly close? << well not stated as obligations, but generally it's his job
to get close.
[]bot: Bet placed: 11 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall in 2014"
http://bitbet.us/bet/871/ Odds: 75(Y):25(N) by coin, 42(Y):58(N) by weight.
Total bet: 22.43892981 BTC. Current weight: 7,089.
mircea_popescu: <ben_vulpes> dang did you guys really crap out over 1000 lines while i was sleeping? << we didn't crap
them bish. now eat up!
mircea_popescu: <jurov> looks like it can be opened from news.ycombinator.com without
the paywall << see ? CLEARLY propaganda piece.
mircea_popescu: <kakobrekla> dear ddoser, please add more bots as it is not clear if you are still ddosing or not <<< yeah
this srsly. i was half considering replacing
the voice model with a ddos model, but srsly, you gotta provide better servcice for free if you wanna be part of infrastructure here!
mircea_popescu: generally, idiots revel in offering an idiotarian version of mainstream concepts. like,
the usg right ? ALSO OFFERS INSURANCE.
mircea_popescu: mike_c>
this is
too funny. scamfunding sites now offer insurance! << so did usagi.
jurov waits
till mircea arrives at
the wankfest
mircea_popescu: <davout> yes, continuous
trading seems so much simpler, not sure if
there's a blocker i'm missing
tho << it's nonsense, what exactly is a future
that has no future date ?
mircea_popescu: <jurov> you don't like
the 15th 12:00 GMT, you want
to change it, no? << nah he just wants a shorter break.
than ONE WEEK. which he gets.
mircea_popescu: adlai> nubbins`: yes, but it could ignore
text within blockquote
tags << it does actually.
mircea_popescu: <artifexd> Are
there any plans for new profit centers in MPIF? << yes. got an idea ?
BingoBoingo: Well,
they aren't getting "theirs" anyway so might as well for
the charity of it.
[]bot: Bet placed: 3.37 BTC for Yes on "Bitcoin difficulty
to fall before Mar 2015"
http://bitbet.us/bet/1058/ Odds: 87(Y):13(N) by coin, 81(Y):19(N) by weight.
Total bet: 16.46240824 BTC. Current weight: 60,552.
mike_c: my estimate seems a bit high at
the moment. i gotta do some digging into why. I would use
the october statement as a closer NAV right now.
jurov: mike_c: no responsibility.. but looking on it, i prolly should actually buy some
to prop it up
mike_c: oh, nevermind.
those are minimums. you can't be closer
than
that, but have no responsibility
to be particularly close?
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: i'd pay fiddy bucks for one, and
that's generous. << Nobel prize is gold so you can sell it at one of
those cash for gold store fronts in
the ghetto
mike_c: but what about
the low side?
jurov: mike_c it's actually 1% and i'm outside
that
assbot: BtcAlpha.com F.MPIF
Tracker estimated NAV per share: 0.00021745 B (Total: 475.53 B). Delta: 0.52 B. Last
trade for F.MPIF on MPEX was at 0.000195 BTC [-]
jurov: looks like it can be opened from news.ycombinator.com without
the paywall
jurov: us state dept aparently pays handsomely for such
tweets
jurov: he dared
to
tweet “67 years ago Stalin defended from Hitler his right
to suppress Soviet people.”
xanthyos: cloaked or not, silenceisdefeat.com probably gets hit all
the
time, but it's free and reliable enough
xanthyos: but maybe
that was a different network
xanthyos: at a
time i
thought all nickserv-idented nicks were cloaked
xanthyos: better
to know it's a ddos
to get angry about
than
to have uncertainty and be unable
to diagnose
the problem
xanthyos: but
the pm with gribble
took a while
to come back
xanthyos: if i connected from my home ip i'd cloak. i don't notice a lag at all from
the ssh session
xanthyos: is
that why my pms sometimes look invisible or delayed