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mircea_popescu: my curiosity was merely if this is the closest to a bond that we have.
mircea_popescu: EskimoBob that's for sure. in fact nothing in btc is "like we know".
mircea_popescu: smickles i could easily issue bonds at a fixed rate and just shrug. it would break the current price discovery mechanism in the mpoe-bond inverse licitations tho
mircea_popescu: but due to variance this could in any given interval be either -x% or +x%
mircea_popescu: the thing is tho, bear with me. you have a math model that generates say 1%.
mircea_popescu: smickles it wouldn't be either better or worsde for mpoe, the % would just be smaller.
mircea_popescu: so basically what btc finance needs most atm is an insurer.
mircea_popescu: or otherwise, the coupon from the profit participation of the bondholder.
mircea_popescu: im gathering that the main problem here is that i haven't carefully enough sepparated the two parts
mircea_popescu: you can't seriously tell me this is the risk-free rate.
mircea_popescu: except in the months where mpoe fails [to behave as expected]
mircea_popescu: that extra 4% is your share of mpoe gain each month, hands ddown
mircea_popescu: irrespective if variance makes the month's gain lower or smaller
mircea_popescu: the bondholder gets a share of theoretical gain EACH MONTH
mircea_popescu: you could easily put a bond into mpoe, and on it offer your own insured bond at a lower %
mircea_popescu: to be honest, i originally imaghiend there'd be bankers stepping in to offer insured versions
mircea_popescu: you don't know me too well i guess, but i am all about finding the best ways to do finance in btc.
mircea_popescu: smickles no, im trying to use mr bob's expertise to sound my own bonds on
mircea_popescu: plenty of pounds of flesh to be had. where's the flesh ?
mircea_popescu: greek bondholders took quite the hosing recently. why ? greece is still there
mircea_popescu: you're describing a very teoretical bond. this is how it works in a world with no default.
mircea_popescu: you don't know loss will occur on mpoe, actually historically hasn't really so far.
mircea_popescu: from what i can see with mining "bonds"/FCVWs w./e the problem is depreciation is a given
mircea_popescu: you make x% unless the country fucks up, in which case you make a loss.
mircea_popescu: but you're aware that what you describe is exactly what sovereign bonds are.
mircea_popescu: then that'd be a bond, but this bondholder-insured thing is not, for that reason ?
mircea_popescu: so basically your ideea is that if i bought insurance myself and offered an insured tier too
mircea_popescu: there's no "i frak up tho", it's a math model, it works the same
mircea_popescu: or, as it really is with bonds, "except in case of default"
mircea_popescu: "you have 1k usd principal and making this much per month, except in case of war"
mircea_popescu: EskimoBob well, yeah. it'd be a twin bond and insurance ?
mircea_popescu: for many reasons, including "cant sell your own child" and "can't establish the best price to sell art so can't sell"
mircea_popescu: but i dont imagien he mined very much, and i dont think he sold any of it
mircea_popescu: cause that's prolly an important value, seeing how its really 21 mn - that.
mircea_popescu: has anyone done a count of money that has not moved since the mtgox failure ?
mircea_popescu: my first day haha. after vragnaroda got me to sit still for long enough to comprehend why gpg wot is a good idea