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mircea_popescu: this is why price moves so much : fiat side can increase 1000% in two weeks on account of very small basis (in fiat terms)
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder there's not really that much btc on the market.
mircea_popescu: BTC prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the BTC market a good deal higher within a few months.
mircea_popescu: i think many people are psychologically invested in passing the bubble
mircea_popescu: if 100k is 5x your life savinfgs you obviously have no place dicking around b uying internet funny moneys for 100k
mircea_popescu: ya well JWU42 , some people have no business doing btc megaplays either.
mircea_popescu: all bitcoins in the world for 100k ? sure, i'll take em
mircea_popescu: knotwork i was trying to play teh daytrader what can i tel lyou.
mircea_popescu: jurov i sold 200 btc's worth specifically to rebuy once price tanks back to 20.
mircea_popescu: i think book is deceptive, as btc ppl are very impatient.
mircea_popescu: i doubt there's 100 bux to be made working campbx/stamp/mtgox/w/e
mircea_popescu: there's like, what, 3-4 btc worth to be made arbing that ?
mircea_popescu: i think arbing the fiat exchanges is more work than it's worth.
mircea_popescu: still some decoupling, but as btc mkt cap increases there will be less and less.
mircea_popescu: mjr_ selling calls on the usd or buying calls on the btc are very similar i think
mircea_popescu: unlike forexy things where you just mash the buy/sell buttons
mircea_popescu: say you bought calls and they are now up. you can buy puts and pretty much lock it.
mircea_popescu: however, this is the #1 risk i face. one day it will be the case, and ima try not to get fucked then.
mircea_popescu: that's not actually true. for instance all of asicminer is like 50-100k btc.
mircea_popescu: they can't go retroactively and say i buy here i sell there
mircea_popescu: and in any event it's better than bitcoinica-style forced liquidation event.
mircea_popescu: which is why people were lolling at people who lost their stuff in bitcoinica.
mircea_popescu: so in this sense it can work as leverage, even as high as 10`000%
mircea_popescu: if you buy 1 btc at 24, then you risk 24. if you buy 1 btc synthetically via an option at 8, you risk only the 8.
mircea_popescu: he paid the extra whatever , 50 cents, a dollar, to insure his 17 capital out of the 24 against the possibility of loss
mircea_popescu: back when btc was about 14/each an option struck at 15 would have cost about .15 btc say, roughly, so like 2 dollars.
mircea_popescu: you end up with an account plan doing a. btc buying slippage gain/loss ; b. overtime btc gain/loss ; c. option entry/exit gain/loss
mircea_popescu: then when you do options value btc in then-current vwap and add difference to acct
mircea_popescu: then do vwap price when you buy, actual price you bought at
mircea_popescu: mjr_ the excruciatingly precise way to do it would be to keep separate accounts.
mircea_popescu: (value of decision to buy btc + value of decision to buy option) together
mircea_popescu: mjr_ well you have to decide if you keep books in btc or not
mircea_popescu: take O.BTCUSD.P350T. you can sell it now for 0.43102778