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mircea_popescu: thestringpuller (you don't get) (2 bn worth of ((in your face plebs) neener)) (without spending 2bn (to implement it)).
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller you don't get 2 bn worth of in your face plebs neener without spending 2bn to implement it.
mircea_popescu: you can also publish the result of the (281032790 +61731894) sum
mircea_popescu: which whiole not precise, will be a MUCH better guess than any other guess someone makes.
mircea_popescu: you just take the entire vwap list and calc the average for everything there.
mircea_popescu: Namworld a sort of "btc value implied by option contracts"
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller no, inasmuch as it's the statjson of that account.
mircea_popescu: final value = (x * 281032790 + y * 61731894) / (281032790 +61731894)
mircea_popescu: in the case of 310 breakeven is x, in the case of 220 breakeven is y
mircea_popescu: "O.BTCUSD.C220T": {"1d": {"avg": "","min": "","max": "","vsh": "","vsa": "","cnt": ""}, "7d": {"avg": "20577298","min": "20577298","max": "20577298","vsh": "3","vsa": "61731894","cnt": "1"}, "30d": {"avg": "19660880","min": "18744462","max": "20577298","vsh": "6","vsa": "117965280","cnt": "2"}}
mircea_popescu: "O.BTCUSD.C310T": {"1d": {"avg": "","min": "","max": "","vsh": "","vsa": "","cnt": ""}, "7d": {"avg": "28103279","min": "28103279","max": "28103279","vsh": "10","vsa": "281032790","cnt": "1"}, "30d": {"avg": "28103279","min": "28103279","max": "28103279","vsh": "10","vsa": "281032790","cnt": "1"}}
mircea_popescu: i imagine you would get a bunch of people going there daily just to check that
mircea_popescu: go into the vwap json, calculate the implicit breakeven of each option line
mircea_popescu: and absent actual experiments (which did NOT occur) the agreement is by definition agreement of idiots.
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller that's not how reality works i'm affraid.
mircea_popescu: consequently, the headcount of "known and respected" is dismal.
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller but you do bring an interesting point. in spite of 1mn words being written a week into this channel, there's an incredible dearth of people doing useful stuff, such as, keeping a blog with good quality research.
mircea_popescu: for that matter the owner himself can come out and make monthly statements like everyone else.
mircea_popescu: you wish to propose something exists, you'll have to do a lot better than that.
mircea_popescu: otherwise, we might as well steal the numbers off of RIAA/MPAA's piracy estimates
mircea_popescu: absent a statement from the owner itself, i want to see the estimate of someone i know and respect.
mircea_popescu: some clueless noob calling his farting "a study" is not going to wash in this conversation.
mircea_popescu: im too lazy to dig up the data, but most of 2012 they ran in the red.
mircea_popescu: they did monthly reporting too for a few months but then gave up
mircea_popescu: pizzaman1337 they'd be around there, possibly, but haven't had a report out in like 18 months i think
mircea_popescu: i don't think it would be too hard, just get the parser and run it
mircea_popescu: no, sdice made like 60-70k, mpoe made like 20k or so, there's a reason these are the top bitcoin corps.
mircea_popescu: i think bugpowder has a copy too, i don't recall where it is on github