426200+ entries in 0.13s
mircea_popescu: but srsly, the funny life of this guy who lives with like, 5 chicks.
mircea_popescu: "This is awesome! I didn't even know such an exchange existed."
mircea_popescu: Reward = TOTAL * 0.99 * MY_BET * SQRT(LOG(WEIGHT))*WEIGHT^(1/6.0) / Sum_all(winning_bets * SQRT(LOG(WEIGHT))*WEIGHT^(1/6.0))
mircea_popescu: EDIT: I found a formula which is almost correct for WEIGHT > 3000, it is:
mircea_popescu: <TradeFortress> prehaps it's because S.DICE wants bigger dividends this month so they're delaying it until the 5th << that's not how it works, divs are for feb
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller : that's nice, my antigrav unit is humming quietly in the basement. now what ?
mircea_popescu: <jurov> if i do split and short sell, that sell is counted in, no? << no. bot's sales only.
mircea_popescu: anyway, off to play path of exile with my all-female clan. bbiab.
mircea_popescu: so in short i doubt the short term anything but weakly predicts the vwap
mircea_popescu: but sometimes you made and sometimes you lost on that strategy
mircea_popescu: well it was a good theory, but i don't think it meets the data so far
mircea_popescu: moreover, there was a huge differential for days till yest
mircea_popescu: many times it was the case that large buys didn't match the theory
mircea_popescu: the difference is small, yet i just sold 80% of the month's book
mircea_popescu: looking at it roughly : A totally took a bite of concrete, B sort of predicted something, but muchkly exaggerated.
mircea_popescu: there's a very speciffic=looking graph of the options breakeven points if you calc them all out
mircea_popescu: O.BTCUSD.C290T = 0.32626257 ; O.BTCUSD.C590T = 0.06210314
mircea_popescu: draw the graph if you will, it's a symetrical butterfly.
mircea_popescu: it'd only be fair in the fucked sense that term takes in any natural science/
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder the thing is, my bet is that there is predictive power of arbitrary precision for contiguous subsets
mircea_popescu: tell you what, if you promise to write a good statistical analysis and publish it i'll send you the ~300 datapoints on that graph
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder i think miodterm. i think it was on an otherwise empty book someone buying some weird far out call
mircea_popescu: actually, there was a point where the oix was pushed to like 90
mircea_popescu: with a little luck the comment'll get more upvotes than the article itself
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder you're up 12 votes now, and check ouit the comment
mircea_popescu: you're sure it must be in there somewhere, but you really don't want to dig it out
mircea_popescu: it's one of those cases where his point is like the puss in a zit
mircea_popescu: Bitcoins price sentiment at a bearish weekly high, still twice as many believe in higher prices within 6 months. You agree? (self.Bitcoin)