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mircea_popescu: there's a graph in the article on trilema showing it against the actual price
mircea_popescu: it predicted some events in the past and failed to rpedict others
mircea_popescu: however, i wouldn't fall in love with it. we don't know yet if it makes any sense or just is a pretty number
mircea_popescu: it's a pretty sophisticated measure, if you think about it
mircea_popescu: so they aren;t really putting their btc where their mouth is very much
mircea_popescu: of the ~5k btc on the line, only 8.5% belongs to the people expecting 57.59
mircea_popescu: it allows for easy separation between bulls and bears by taking advantage of the the nature of options
mircea_popescu: on average, they expect 39.31 next week. the call side expects 57.59, the put side 37.32
mircea_popescu: it sums up what the option traders think the price will be next week
mircea_popescu: smickles, could $vwap be cleaned up a little so that the 1 more msg thing is not printed ? perhaps take out all the u too
mircea_popescu: way cleanner imo. mpexbot more adequate for programming i'd guess
mircea_popescu: you know in spite of the spikes avg volume is like 20-30k
mircea_popescu: tiberiusiv that's why i regularly use the 30day price figures for mkt cap, and the 24 hour averages for btc prices on option pricing and so forth.
mircea_popescu: the solution is quite simple : don't get politically involved. stick to writing code.
mircea_popescu: Bowjob nah it was sold. he had bought it earlier for w/e
mircea_popescu: heh calls are covering. either they're right and a top is in
mircea_popescu: im not saying it's impossible to move the actual implementation as it is into shape by incremental improvements ftr.
mircea_popescu: in terms of, fuck it, it's not supposed to work long term, it's stupposed to show how this could work
mircea_popescu: midnightmagic wwithout having talked to the man, it is my impression he basically wrote a spec and then hacked together a mcguyver implementation he didn't think much of
mircea_popescu: "Hello guys, I am a psychologist in training and I would like to offer my knowledge, insight and experience with understanding women."
mircea_popescu: the entire "merchants accept btc" stuff is nonsense, and in general retail is pretty much irrelevanty
mircea_popescu: it was a tough sell, the events of the 12th were the kiss of death.
mircea_popescu: the run-up was pretty much driven by everyone's wish on both sides of the divide to merge btc and some finance.
mircea_popescu: i was just about to say hm, the calls covering, are we in for a drop ?
mircea_popescu: seriously tho, who is handling gift certs these days ?
mircea_popescu: i'm not gonna weigh your bottom line down, i can get as many coins as i want for myself, but nice way to spread the love.
mircea_popescu: Namworld the problem here is that since we don't have multiple implementations, the behaviour of clients is centralised not by their will
mircea_popescu: i won't be speaking for some charity in tibet because i don't give a shit. if people actually do this sort of crap then btc will be fucked on the longer term
mircea_popescu: suppose china comes to avalon or asicminer and says you must not rely the tx of this charity
mircea_popescu: zerokwel moreover this is a serious problem for the future.
mircea_popescu: irc is not too good a medium for this discussion, it'll just get fragmented into nonsense.
mircea_popescu: midnightmagic listen, post an article on the topic somewhere. i'll read it
mircea_popescu: obviously the point was undestood even if they're too spineless to admit this, or else we wouldn't have seen the move to the rabble rousing populist forum bs.
mircea_popescu: but yah that's what i was explainingto luke and co back in feb : if they exclude sd txs that doesn't exclude sd from bitcoin, it excludes them from mining.
mircea_popescu: zerokwel in fact sd paid a little over 50% of all fees ever paid.
mircea_popescu: who ever heard of proponents of a system being upset cause it's actually useful for something.
mircea_popescu: and then tehy have the cheek to even talk to my girl in the forum,
mircea_popescu: is a story of people trying, failing and then going eh what the fuck, we can't admit we've been idiots.
mircea_popescu: tom's basic thing is exactly there. bitcoinica failed the exact same way. everything in the drama timeline
mircea_popescu: ya they should get it within the widest imaginable industrial standards.
mircea_popescu: Chaang-Noi that's what the bet volumes would seem to indicate.