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414700+ entries in 0.126s
mircea_popescu: deposits flushed.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves that's how futurtes work. settlement to settlement.
mircea_popescu: yay
mircea_popescu: last settlement.
mircea_popescu: bam.
mircea_popescu: he has to deposit 290% of the PREVIOUS DIFF
mircea_popescu: well here's the beauty : this is already implemented.
mircea_popescu: o i see.
mircea_popescu: so what, if he cancels the bid the futures dissapear from his account ?
mircea_popescu: you've just made mpex bankrupt.
mircea_popescu: then sells them for .05 btc each and withdraws.
mircea_popescu: he makes the chosen price 1 satoshi, deposts 1.25 satoshi per
mircea_popescu: you're not thinking very well.
mircea_popescu: so if you choose 1 satoshi ?
mircea_popescu: ...
mircea_popescu: 125% OF WHAT.
mircea_popescu: this is perfectly fine, but they are different things.
mircea_popescu: no. i have a process, he is doing otc.
mircea_popescu: otherwise this is simply an otc trade.
mircea_popescu: through a process.
mircea_popescu: without asking him.
mircea_popescu: can you underwrite some with jurov and sell them to him ?
mircea_popescu: define "Work fine" in this context
mircea_popescu: well ?
mircea_popescu: sure, why not.
mircea_popescu: or you know, make pigs fly.
mircea_popescu: that's like saying grow tits.
mircea_popescu: ie, all the same.
mircea_popescu: this doesn't work, because market traded contracts have to be standardised.
mircea_popescu: ok, well... the other thing i got was "make each idifff a different, user specified contract"
mircea_popescu: do you follow that ?
mircea_popescu: if it were 3.1x, even less than nobody would be underwriting it.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves you are not reading it seems. CURRENTLY, at 2.9x, NOBODY is underwrtiting it.
mircea_popescu: jurov dividends are shown as the sum of div transactions in mpex.
mircea_popescu: so it'd be pointless pretty much.
mircea_popescu: i'm not increasing collateral maargin for the simple reason that even as it is underwriting is dismal.
mircea_popescu: ie, a case where diff increases > 3x during 3 months. this isn't normal.
mircea_popescu: of course i am. this is exactly what we have here, an extreme
mircea_popescu: so it wouldn't work at all.
mircea_popescu: then the system "would work" in all fringe cases, except nobody will depost 1k btc for a 1btc contract
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves listen : i could make minimum collateral 1000x.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves i have no idea. prolly, if any serious hash is delivered.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowdurr ahaha
mircea_popescu: just came up with some numbers.
mircea_popescu: i wasn't proposing it's actual case.
mircea_popescu: jurov i was giving a didactic example.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves hopefully the network stabilises and we'll be fine.
mircea_popescu: jurov how do you mean ?
mircea_popescu: but otherwise it imposes a capital burden on underwriters. so it is guesswork
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves obviously it's a trade-off. 2.9 might not be optimal in some fringe cases
mircea_popescu: etc.
mircea_popescu: if you don't know what diff was you can't trade futures
mircea_popescu: jurov like, if you don't know what btc/usd is you can't trade options
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves higher than ~12mn ?
mircea_popescu: jurov yeah but mpex is not a datasource.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves why not ?
mircea_popescu: that's exactly it : you know you won't get less than x.
mircea_popescu: i do like, and i do have limits.
mircea_popescu: that's not how standardized contracts work.
mircea_popescu: so each and every single contract has to be specified independently.
mircea_popescu: they obviously become unfungible now.
mircea_popescu: no example. if you make contracvts any way you want, what's the buyer supposed to buy ?
mircea_popescu: so what's the buyer buy ?
mircea_popescu: you will only get ~half of what you originally thought you will get.
mircea_popescu: and someone makes a contract now which is 0.46 covered
mircea_popescu: now if you had bought a contract back in july thinking it's 4.95 covered
mircea_popescu: okay.
mircea_popescu: how did you figure ?
mircea_popescu: as collateral, to create one i mean.
mircea_popescu: how much should someone have to pay per option at that date ?
mircea_popescu: at which point last settlement diff is 16mn.
mircea_popescu: now, nothing happens until February 2014.
mircea_popescu: so you deposit 4.95btc, get your X.IDIFF.MAR.
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 2.9**4*.07
mircea_popescu: if you create one X.IDIFF.MAR future, you will have to pay 2.9**4*.07 as collateral.
mircea_popescu: today is april 1st. the last settlement was 7mn.
mircea_popescu: let's go through a full example.
mircea_popescu: lol that's a new one
mircea_popescu: as long as someone accepts it
mircea_popescu: it's possible for you to sell at any price you wish,
mircea_popescu: sure.
mircea_popescu: he makes .139 if he exercises.
mircea_popescu: because executions must be allocated uniformly to old and new contracts.
mircea_popescu: no.
mircea_popescu: if he pays less it dillutes the original.
mircea_popescu: if he has to pay 70x this is absurd
mircea_popescu: now, somebody wants to make 1000 options.
mircea_popescu: two quarters pass. diff goes up only 100%
mircea_popescu: he has to pay 70x last settlement in collateral.
mircea_popescu: think about it : today someone makes a 4 quarters out option
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves it's not just a simple matter of a field.
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller perhaps.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves ya well, there's no practical way to disclose top exposure tho.
mircea_popescu: thanks to bug's support tesla is about to buy apple :D
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves minimal coverage is discolosed tho, that's what that contract is there for.
mircea_popescu: 25 days out is early ?!
mircea_popescu: much more concerning would be the possibility diff doesn't go over 13.75mn by july tho
mircea_popescu: a, possibly.
mircea_popescu: i don't follow.
mircea_popescu: why ?