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mircea_popescu: this switch would by far dominate any functioning market.
mircea_popescu: pgp mining at the very least has the impact that when btc goes under mining cost miners move from selling to buying.
mircea_popescu: savetheinternet mpex does about 80% of bitcoin denominated financials trade.
mircea_popescu: logically the only reason they'd say anything about it is if they bought high and it counts as a capital loss.
mircea_popescu: what's to trade ? they who wanted btc have them, they who wanted dollars have them.
mircea_popescu: so it's insolvent. what problem of yours is that ? you bring fiat in.
mircea_popescu: the question is more if the govt is capable of defending new business.
mircea_popescu: isn't panama one of the select few countries of which the us kidnapped the head of state ?
mircea_popescu: you tell me out of 10k banks there's not a single one you can partner with ? that seems improbable.
mircea_popescu: there's what, 150 countries in this world. each has at least five banks.
mircea_popescu: i really think the best way to go is partner with licensed institutions rather than try and do bermudadollars or w/e
mircea_popescu: if you are already running an exchange you'd better have the paperwork in order already, in which case...
mircea_popescu: but then again, i participate in 20+ discussions a day, all end with "yes, this is yet another niche, just need the people with a clue to do it"
mircea_popescu: it really is a perfectly valid and probably profityable niche.
mircea_popescu: pgp the idea is for someone who has the ability to make fiat settlements to run the future.
mircea_popescu: so it's pretty much limited to the exchanges. few actuallty have the sense to know wtf this all is so...
mircea_popescu: cash settled is meaningless bullshit practically indistinguishable from a scam.
mircea_popescu: so there must be someone with the ability to make deliveries.
mircea_popescu: ah. yeah, i've been talking to people. i will list futures, but i will only list physically settled.
mircea_popescu: it's a fiction, and financial fiction never happy ends
mircea_popescu: currently everyone is play-pretending this "unlimited theoretical liability" angle. it's just not workable in any practical way.
mircea_popescu: there's a reason llc companies irl list their capital.
mircea_popescu: more generally the limited capital and orderly folding is a very important concept that i've been discussing with other people looking to make financial instruments in thsi chan
mircea_popescu: fold orderly, you've contributed no market instability and in fact an orderly folding is better for one's reputation than continued success.
mircea_popescu: this is much better than exchange-level implementation because it's so much easier to limit things. throw 1k btc at this project see how long it takes you to lose it all.
mircea_popescu: yes, i was about to say : a simple way to test rbh specifically is to just open a brokerage offering rbh-based leverage to customers.
mircea_popescu: (and the people who really need the instrument, ie miners, are much too financially clueless)
mircea_popescu: the thing is, most of this is yet immature. take the idiff futures as a great example. it will be a great instrument down the road buyt for now the underlying is just too nonsensical.
mircea_popescu: this could be done via hedge funds or via other vehicles, but yeah
mircea_popescu: truth of the matter is there;'s plenty of room to get mpex stuff packaged as a sellable vehicvle. both equities and derivatives (diff, fiat, etc)
mircea_popescu: certainly the idea is to keep financial instruments as sophisticated as can be borne.
mircea_popescu: however, we don't have the market to support it yet is my estimation.
mircea_popescu: an upgrade to a more ellaborate model (such as but not necessarily limited to or equal with rbh) has been in the plan since 2011.
mircea_popescu: they just have the advantage of not printing this as mpoe bot does.
mircea_popescu: but there's tons of other issues. so i think pretty m,uch everyotne's models are off the charts,
mircea_popescu: just all the wash trading going on strictly for mtgox's desire to keep on lieing about its market share should be enough of a problem
mircea_popescu: anyway, i think the financial tier is well spooked by all the insanity propagated at the exchange tier.
mircea_popescu: notably pretty much noboduy is goiong in the midmarket either,
mircea_popescu: this on top of the usual consideration of just letting things be.
mircea_popescu: as it'd be unfair to bondholders (whether any harm comes to them from it or not)
mircea_popescu: can't make changes midmonth, especially as they'd be towards a reduction of premiums
mircea_popescu: in no case will this be before the end of the month however.
mircea_popescu: i am considering an algo adjustement. we're doing a bunch of modelling and measuring.
mircea_popescu: The French government announced that starting this week, ketchup will no longer be allowed in any school or university cafeteria
mircea_popescu: but to my eye the rise and the fall are pretty distinct
mircea_popescu: well in as much as there's rebound oscialltions after yeah
mircea_popescu: on the other hand people like bitfloor indeed don't opr at least didn't protect the walletr worth a shiot.
mircea_popescu: they've done about the same thing, been in business for about the same interval etc.
mircea_popescu: but then again i guess people have this too big to fail mentality going.