409600+ entries in 0.185s
mircea_popescu: there's currently absolutely nothing jared kenna can do to become a bitcoin business person again.
mircea_popescu: there must be standards, and if those standards are breached the person must be dead.
mircea_popescu: this will ensure bitcoin's failure on the long term if allowed to continue.
mircea_popescu: if you go by them there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING one can do to fuck up.
mircea_popescu: currently bitcoin contains this throng of idiots who literally have no standard.
mircea_popescu: what more ? what more could one do to be untrustworthy ?
mircea_popescu: they are using the bitcoinica codebase they've stolen ffs.
mircea_popescu: i guess another religion confronts its intellectual bankruptcy.
mircea_popescu: @DalaiLama It’s unrealistic to think that the future of humanity can be achieved only on the basis of prayer, what we need is to take action.
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller i thought he was getting out of brokering ?
mircea_popescu: because more girls need a good whipping than need money at all.
mircea_popescu: heh. i guess the rebellious youth of these days no longer reads sartre & co huh.
mircea_popescu: girls don't mind eating a girl out once they figure out it's safe.
mircea_popescu: they're the only ones that can go yes or no on the first presentation and stick to it.
mircea_popescu: works with women, too. ask her out. she fails to accept... well... he'll have to work at it next time.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder this is incidentally why i never raise offers. i make an offer. any further discussion is met with a deduction from the offer.
mircea_popescu: well... the old black swan. 'it never happened therefore it's impossible" fallacy.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder also someone will tend to represent a 49/51 chance as a 33/66 chance and a 1/99 chance as a 0/100 chance.
mircea_popescu: we just don't have that many different things available.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves i'm always wary when someone proposes something is different from something else.
mircea_popescu: actually the proof of this would be a huge step forward in economic theory.
mircea_popescu: is the same as the difference between the strategy of martingale and the strategy of playing s.dice
mircea_popescu: i think statistically the difference between the strategy of averaging in and the strategy of timing the top
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves to put it simply : the more close to common thought you are, the less likely it is to be correct. the further out you are the higher chances for you to be wrong. this is how thinking about bubbles works.
mircea_popescu: such as, airplanes were made in the 1900s. ants are still not made.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder "I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
mircea_popescu: 1. we don't really know what it looks like ; 2 we've never constructed it.
mircea_popescu: this is like saying knowing what democracy looks like we can now construct it.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder i always suspected the "fight" or "Game" representation of markets is an artefact of the american mind and has nothing to do with market reality.
mircea_popescu: leaving aside the quite typical cypriot failure mode of capital controls (ie, corruption), it still doesn't work.
mircea_popescu: well... mtgox is the most extreme case of capital controls i've ever seen implemented.
mircea_popescu: for instance : the common wisdom is that capital controls help volatile macrofinancial situations.
mircea_popescu: it is a bounty of information and case study for actual economical discussion however.
mircea_popescu: i wonder if their concrete prefab building can take it.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder in the end it all boils down to "it's an -ev game" and "everybody thinks they're special".
mircea_popescu: we're talking net inflows, the fact someone makes bets worth 10 btc on s.dice doesn't mean he has bet a total over 1 btc
mircea_popescu: dub most of the trades count as wash trades in this perspective.
mircea_popescu: probably. if by long term one means more than a year or a few.
mircea_popescu: let's look at this past week (dear lord, it is ONE WEEK) from a macro perspective. buncha noobs poured 20-25 mn into the fiat/btc exchanges. miners took out a few mn of that, exchanges took out a few mn out of that too as fees.
mircea_popescu: conversely, the nature of people is to infer patterns in chance.
mircea_popescu: well, that's the nature of chance. sometimes it works.
mircea_popescu: the only problem is that it doesn't work longterm. might as well play s.dice.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder meaningful, as in having a price signal. you're currently unable to make any sort of judgement as to what bitcoin price should be other than "what are others thinking"
mircea_popescu: i know your goal is to try and speculate, but this makes you not part of bitcoin in any meaningful sense.
mircea_popescu: i don't imagine a recoupling is ever likely at any rate.
mircea_popescu: the mtgox "market" is very decoupled from economic reality, as it happens.
mircea_popescu: buncha noobs got tjhemselves into a tizzy. nobody really caresd.