397900+ entries in 0.251s
mircea_popescu: well, for starters,
they priced bitcoin in dollars not dollars in bitcoin.
psztorc: It is a question of definition...I chose
to define it
that way.
psztorc: But I
think
that all Bitcoin exchanges are Bitcoin businesses.
mircea_popescu: you don't
think walmart is a
tide business for instance, do you ?
psztorc: My understanding was
that MPEX's volume was much lower
than
that, let alone
total stored.
mircea_popescu: the proposition
that mtgox was a bitcoin business is
tenuous.
psztorc: I know
that you own and operate MPEX
mircea_popescu: (do you happen
to be familiar with
the exchange i'm referencing
there ?)
mircea_popescu: "Although businesses can prove
their solvency, proof of future-solvency is impossible, and even solvent Bitcoin PM-businesses would be able
to steal funds by
trading on and
then reporting incorrect prediction outcomes." <<
this is a feckless misstatement of
the situation. a centralized business is predicated on
the
trustworthyness of its living owner. whose word is,
to repurpose a JPM quote, "worth more
than all
the bo
mircea_popescu: now, feel free
to generalize on
the remainder 10%, but it is not unlike saying "men are evil and should be locked up".
mircea_popescu: together
these make up a good 90% of bitcoin busiensses.
mircea_popescu: "The Bitcoin businesses
that oppose
this intent by holding customer funds (for example
the currency exchanges) lose
those funds regularly." << except mpex never did. and bitbet never did. and so on.
psztorc: But I didn't write about it in
that paper.
mircea_popescu: as
the saying goes around here, you might not be interested in fungibility, but
that doesn't prevent it from being interested in you.
psztorc: What I wrote has nothing
to do with fungibility.
mircea_popescu: this is why money is important,
this annullment of a perceived difference.
mircea_popescu: whether each pays his own each
time in silence, or you buy one round and he buys another round is nil.
mircea_popescu: and
thje best example
to verify
this is, a situation where you and another guy sit in a bar for
the space it
takes
to drink
two drafts each.
mircea_popescu: im sorry.
the DIFFERENCE between
the
two situations is imaginary is what i mean.
mircea_popescu: there's nothing magical about money being "your own".
the situation where you own house A, and live in house B which is identical but you rent ; and
the situation where you own house A and live in house A is imaginary.
psztorc: You can't
tell
the difference between money you own and money
that other people own?
mircea_popescu: i disagree with
the notion
that whether bitcoin was designed for people
to hold own money or opm follows from bitcoin being p2p ;
that
there is a way
to differentiate between opm and yom. and other
things
mircea_popescu: or at least shore it up past
the nude declaratory
thing ?
mircea_popescu: "Bitcoin is P2P software. It was not ever designed for other people
to store your money; it was designed for you
to store your own money." << can you prove
this ?
psztorc: It is in
the pdf formatting
that I am continuing my explanation of prediction markets in a different way.
psztorc: That sentence is not a claim
that I make.
mircea_popescu: "i once got formed an idea while in front of
the
tv ergo
tv has a gift" ?
psztorc: What follows
that section are youtube videos
to
tv clips about prediction markets.
mircea_popescu: ok, indulge me. give me an example of an idea
that was so communicated by
television.
mircea_popescu: "
Television has a gift for simplifying and communicating ideas" << o lordy.
psztorc: What
type of
thing would change your mind?
mircea_popescu: but leaving aside
the entire "prediction market"
thing, lemme
try and find
the actual coin discussion.
mircea_popescu: none of
this stands
to actual scrutiny, but hey, peopel got enamoured with whatever
that irish
thing was called, and it got
to die a hero's death so we'll hear about it like we wouldn't have heard if it just died naturally.
mircea_popescu: info-sources in a way
that is consistently and unanimously acceptable." << like
that.
mircea_popescu: "When anyone can
trade, no source of information is overlooked, and market forces balance
mircea_popescu: you're perhaps unfamiliar with
the saying "traduttore,
traditore".
BingoBoingo: Just with BitBet it is hard
to lose
to butthurt retards
psztorc: Those statements are not original research...they're lifted from several mainstream scholars, econ
textbooks, wikipedia "prediction markets" article.
BingoBoingo: The paper honestly reads
to me as BitBet ad copy
mircea_popescu: "The current market price of
these
tradable predictions can
then be interpreted as
the likelihood of
the prediction coming
true." << because, why ?
psztorc: I'm specifically choosing not
to
target
the 3030 audience.
mircea_popescu: suppose i read
this in 3030, at which point no fucking body knows what $ is, and we decide it stands for "trustcoin"
mircea_popescu: why would it be a magic number and why would
the number reference an undefined concept.
psztorc: That was actually a footnote. It was $1 in
the pdf
mircea_popescu: ""Whereas a stock market is a place
to buy and sell shares of a corporation’s earnings, a Prediction Market (PM) is a place
to buy and sell predictions. Valid predictions entitle
their owner
to $11"" <<
this, foir
the record, is horrible writing. do not mix
things so far apart
the abstraction scale, it confuses idiots and it gives smart people
the impression your abstractor really has very little breadth.
gernika: The problem I see is
that
there's no profit motive for
the market owner, because
there's no owner, so no one will drive
the
thing
to work. Which I hope relates
to your last point.
mircea_popescu: the question is whether
the animal so obtained will quack.
mircea_popescu: in any case,
the question here isn't whether you could stuff
the heart of an ox,
the guts of a pig and
the lungs of a horse inside
the skin of a skinned goose.
mircea_popescu: but you will notice you downloading porn and
the functioning of a market are unrelated.
gernika: and it had all
the porn I needed.
gernika: mircea_popescu: I can see a bbs as a public forum, yes.
The decentralization is not as clear
to me, at least not in
the way I used
them. I only ever dialed into one.
mircea_popescu: "What if you had access
to
the combined intellectual powers of all mankind? It would be easier for you
to make decisions." << you know, not only
this does not follow, but
the contrary is actually recorded as anecdotal observation by pretty much all sources. like say russell.
BingoBoingo: psztorc: No one really misses anything about pdf when
they quit
mircea_popescu: gernika a) would you agree
that
the superset of
this inquiry is
the bbs and b) would you say it meets definitions of either "forum" or "decentralized" as you use
them ?
psztorc: Don't you ever miss all of
the lovely pdf formatting?
gernika: Is it impossible
to implement a public forum on a decentralized architecture, such as a dht?
mircea_popescu: (clearing, obviously, is a
term of art, in finance. it's
the process whereby definite items are recognized by others. very similar
to
the function of a
torens
title registrar, or
the births book, or
the military despatches.)
psztorc: What "is" is a different question
than what "is for".
mircea_popescu: but in
the original
terms. "in
Truthcoin
the operations performed are almost exactly
the same as existing Bitcoin
transactions".
psztorc: To enable people
to use Bitcoin in markets, and bet on real world
things.
psztorc: You may be right about whatever you are
talking about, but in
Truthcoin
the operations performed are almost exactly
the same as existing Bitcoin
transactions.
mircea_popescu: to
take a step out of
the purest
theory closer
t oactual practice.
BingoBoingo: How a
trusted
third party could possibly be agreed upon
though is among
the most centralizing mechanisms possibru
mircea_popescu: in
this sense, "the earth centralizes
the imago-es of all astral bodies, as
their light projection". nevertheless,
the earth is not a black hole.
mircea_popescu: but
the "meet" in "market" has a different intension from "meet" as in "sql join".
mircea_popescu: this, incidentally, is why it actually is
trustless. but also why it's irreversible.
psztorc: In
the project I designed.
psztorc: When I say "decentralized", I mean it
the same way Satoshi meant it: headless and immortal.
The individual
traders still all "meet" in one "place".
mircea_popescu: depends where you're
taking it.
this could perhaps be said.
psztorc: Would you say
that Bitcoin centralizes all
transactions in one blockchain database?
mircea_popescu: dja know of any example from nature where something like
that happens ?
mircea_popescu: this argument is not even apparent if people were spherical cows in a vacuum. but as people are, it's impossible
to obtain an outcome by opposite process.
psztorc: One is a process,
the other an outcome.
psztorc: Can't a decentralized market centralize
trade?
mircea_popescu: well no.
the fundamental problem is
that
the function of a market is
to centralize
trade. decentralized market is like cool boiler.
psztorc: The fundamental problem is
tying
the market
to reality, without invoking a
trusted 3rd party.
mircea_popescu: jesus reddit is retarded. omg not even wrong where
to even start /me abandons
the entire
thread.
mircea_popescu: you understand
the fundamental problem with
trying
to create a "decentralized market" do you ?
mircea_popescu: "Truthcoin is my ambitious project
to create a
trustless P2P prediction-marketplace.
This is possible because, unlike most marketplaces,
the end product of a prediction market (PM) is information. "
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: He's got some sidechain betting
thing, but more
than
that dun liek huffing ether
psztorc: The second one in
the Eth link you just posted
BingoBoingo: psztorc: Appologies for not replying
to your email with wisdom, but my momma
told me not
to
talk
to strangers
mircea_popescu: "certain elements" are "attacking"
the re-ripple
thing by pointing out
that it's stupid and pointless.
TO
THE BARRICADES!1
assbot: Prepare yourselves for
the assault on Ethereum by certain hostile elements within bitcoin community. : ethereum ... (
http://bit.ly/1YBdAZ1 )