384800+ entries in 0.145s
mircea_popescu: well for instance that one looked like it'll go the other way at outset.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 mike_c was discussing a 50+ btc bet earlier. what's your definition of reasonable ?
mircea_popescu: b0n1 twas jborkl, and he said that's what they said not what they'll do necessarily.
mircea_popescu: it's a great thing all these "companies" don't actually have professional cfos involved so nobody realises just how much damage a faux pas of the sort does to their prospects
mircea_popescu: or who knows, maybe there's no confidence in delivery.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 well it's new, prolly nobody with a balance saw it yet.
mircea_popescu: until they put the afternoon required into figuring it out and move on to mutual.
mircea_popescu: while this may be true, either in your own case or even generally, it still has northing to do with the car.
mircea_popescu: i don't think a discussion of the cluelessness of the population can in principle be made into a comparison of betting systems.
mircea_popescu: so you can lay two unrelated bets. if they're unrelated that;'s not arbitrage.
mircea_popescu: so then if the events are unrelated then this is simply atiomic betting. you can bet no on all the various miner deliveries on bitbet and win with all
mircea_popescu: the only problem is, traditional betting venues work much like the casino, to skim as much as possible.
mircea_popescu: people are used to the very cloistered situation traditional betting venues offer.
mircea_popescu: in general it's a daunting proposition, because it's so unstructured.
mircea_popescu: i dunno that you can derive 10% gains over ghold staying under 2k an ounce for the rest of the year
mircea_popescu: seems to me it's actually pricing the thing pretty darned accurately. if you look at options they're a worse deal.
mircea_popescu: seeing how it's 1.3k atm... seems about right to me. you get better odds on that somewhere ?
mircea_popescu: mike_c well, it's an 8 month old bet. it's almost dead. you still get 1.1 / 1.7 for 2 months out.
mircea_popescu: unless you think it's 64.5 to 1 they actually deliver, there's some arbitrage there.
mircea_popescu: you can do the same exact thing on mutual betting, except paying less vig.
mircea_popescu: i don't see we have such a shortage of events that we need to make them last by creating dozens of bets out of the same one thing
mircea_popescu: sure, the event can be repackaged every which way, but fundamentally it's either a or b.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 so basically, mutual betting is better for the bettor. line betting is great for the bookie. lay/back is great for the site/liquidity provider
mircea_popescu: a back/lay bet you can only cancel if someone is willing to unwind you.
mircea_popescu: a mutual bet you can always cancel by making an appropiate bet on the other side.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 ok, simpler case of that : mutual betting is lay/back with no spread. if you can lay for 45 cents then you can back for 55, precisely.
mircea_popescu: okay. do you see how that can be used to shave a significant edge off the naive players ?
mircea_popescu: do you see how the back/lay system distributes liquidity arbitrarily ?
mircea_popescu: mkay. this is a problem of maffs. let's try something else :
mircea_popescu: do you grok the part of how back/lay is a subset of mutual betting ?
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves strangely enough for a "dutch central bank" rep, nobody heard of this ebe fellow.
mircea_popescu: you pay X to join, you get a percentage of all subsequent joins equal to your "trust rating"
mircea_popescu: nubbins` something like that might actually work. a ponzi forum
mircea_popescu: well sure. ask him if he thinks it's ok to submit revisions to code he's never read.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves im curious what happens if hearn ever gets his shit together and shows up at some event of mine
mircea_popescu: nubbins` get pankkake to tell you what the mystery drug is called
mircea_popescu: A: No, the moderators only check accuracy. They are neither qualified nor authorized to make press relations decisions
mircea_popescu: "bitch, i'm not saying you're a whore, i'm saying you look worse than plenty of whores and this is all your doing."
mircea_popescu: "If you are a representative of Solar Wind Mining reading this, be aware that I’m not calling you a scam. I’m saying that you potentially legitimate venture doesn’t even look as good as some scams, and this situation was entirely preventable."
mircea_popescu: i liked him after he went nuts past the point of common nuttery into pure trollage.
mircea_popescu: jborkl i agree. imo the insult ladder goes like taaki > usagi > pietilla > wagner
mircea_popescu: i don't think he's usagi because he made german-type slight style errors
mircea_popescu: i suppose he's taken -pr ish advice and is nao lurking
mircea_popescu: and been trying to do things of import on the forum with moderate success.
mircea_popescu: ok ok. smidge is this dangerously close to smickles named guy, who;'s kinda young, unwed,
mircea_popescu: smidge is this irl accountant guy with a jet fighter pilot wife and two kids, who used to broker for mpex and do a bunch of other venture stuff
mircea_popescu: "I largely address the issue of who the fuck has the never for this "