384700+ entries in 0.101s
mircea_popescu: to quote some guy on some irc channel, "the island where i live had two moose couples introduced. now there's 150k of them"
mircea_popescu: nubbins` it's risky, but by no means not guaranteed failure.
mircea_popescu: it'd seem ThickAsThieves gets his first real taste of bitcoin business sudden rush of wtfomg these days.
mircea_popescu: so i use some random online service. it does w/e well. i shoot the guy an email asking for his bitcoin addy because i want to send him some cents as encouragement.
mircea_popescu: mod6 you know... peopel announcing other people teamed up with them is scarcely usavble to impugn those other people.
mircea_popescu: <Jere_Jones> I'm not sure I'd care to pay the 30BTC fee to have an account on MPEx. << yuou can just use a borker.
mircea_popescu: <ThickAsThieves> the irony here being that I planned to take mp aside to discuss the possibility of such things BEFORE they happened... << don't worry, it's how it works. I had made plans back in january and announced ppl about my conference last year, so as to make it BEFORE BTCprice went up. scheduled it for april, asshole btc went up in march.
mircea_popescu: fior that matter if you take 1 year it goes from 5 to 130, ie, 6000%
mircea_popescu: no, there's legends. btc supposedly made 800% while the rest of the stuff 30
mircea_popescu: "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies."
mircea_popescu: Vexual always a good idea to keep in mind that people talking binds nobody. including the people themselves most of the time.
mircea_popescu: well for instance that one looked like it'll go the other way at outset.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 mike_c was discussing a 50+ btc bet earlier. what's your definition of reasonable ?
mircea_popescu: b0n1 twas jborkl, and he said that's what they said not what they'll do necessarily.
mircea_popescu: it's a great thing all these "companies" don't actually have professional cfos involved so nobody realises just how much damage a faux pas of the sort does to their prospects
mircea_popescu: or who knows, maybe there's no confidence in delivery.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 well it's new, prolly nobody with a balance saw it yet.
mircea_popescu: until they put the afternoon required into figuring it out and move on to mutual.
mircea_popescu: while this may be true, either in your own case or even generally, it still has northing to do with the car.
mircea_popescu: i don't think a discussion of the cluelessness of the population can in principle be made into a comparison of betting systems.
mircea_popescu: so you can lay two unrelated bets. if they're unrelated that;'s not arbitrage.
mircea_popescu: so then if the events are unrelated then this is simply atiomic betting. you can bet no on all the various miner deliveries on bitbet and win with all
mircea_popescu: the only problem is, traditional betting venues work much like the casino, to skim as much as possible.
mircea_popescu: people are used to the very cloistered situation traditional betting venues offer.
mircea_popescu: in general it's a daunting proposition, because it's so unstructured.
mircea_popescu: i dunno that you can derive 10% gains over ghold staying under 2k an ounce for the rest of the year
mircea_popescu: seems to me it's actually pricing the thing pretty darned accurately. if you look at options they're a worse deal.
mircea_popescu: seeing how it's 1.3k atm... seems about right to me. you get better odds on that somewhere ?
mircea_popescu: mike_c well, it's an 8 month old bet. it's almost dead. you still get 1.1 / 1.7 for 2 months out.
mircea_popescu: unless you think it's 64.5 to 1 they actually deliver, there's some arbitrage there.
mircea_popescu: you can do the same exact thing on mutual betting, except paying less vig.
mircea_popescu: i don't see we have such a shortage of events that we need to make them last by creating dozens of bets out of the same one thing
mircea_popescu: sure, the event can be repackaged every which way, but fundamentally it's either a or b.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 so basically, mutual betting is better for the bettor. line betting is great for the bookie. lay/back is great for the site/liquidity provider
mircea_popescu: a back/lay bet you can only cancel if someone is willing to unwind you.
mircea_popescu: a mutual bet you can always cancel by making an appropiate bet on the other side.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 ok, simpler case of that : mutual betting is lay/back with no spread. if you can lay for 45 cents then you can back for 55, precisely.
mircea_popescu: okay. do you see how that can be used to shave a significant edge off the naive players ?