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mircea_popescu: so then what dio you do, have all these bets you can't bet on ?
mircea_popescu: "Even with weights, allowing a diff bet to be open to bets till so close to the resolution date, enormously reduces the incentive to bet until it is an obvious call and thus limits the size of the bets to a few eager early beters plus roughly double the late skimmers. No money in between an thus smaller overall rollers."
mircea_popescu: ok so basically they mostly delivered an avalon clone on a 9 month schedule, and announced a 28nm process on a 3 month schedule late sept.
mircea_popescu: so basically this is a 25% actual rigs (from cointerra) and 75% vaporware.
mircea_popescu: will hit even in 300 days of constant difficulty. also known as never.
mircea_popescu: 240 th they say they're deploying, selling the lot for 50k btc.
mircea_popescu: stealing 2.8mn from idiots does not make the stolen funds investments.
mircea_popescu: the20year2 and then you list the crap and get called a scam and don't understand why.
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 0.01591501 / 0.02752279 - 0.0016129 / 0.00227272
mircea_popescu: jurov well you don't HAVE to settle, you can just sell it back later
mircea_popescu: seems the usual overreaction. no such thing happened as far as anyone knows
mircea_popescu: was supposed to start today. i guess davout is having some tech trouble ?
mircea_popescu: now you're in... now you're out. back in... back out...
mircea_popescu: making it obvious when someone defaults and making responsibility stick for defaults is good enough.
mircea_popescu: looky, economy is built on trust and people doing their job. it's not really built on "making it impossible" for people to default.
mircea_popescu: i tell you euro will turn worthless in the next ten years a degree of magnitude more often than btc will
mircea_popescu: and moreover he has the means to go delta neutral as he has ready access to a spot market.
mircea_popescu: of course, what he says is that he's not going directional, and it makes sense for him not to, if he knows his business,
mircea_popescu: and it's practically better than the alternative (hold 1mn euros which also COULD be worthless)
mircea_popescu: still, on one hand it's a much better liquidation event than either the best or the most recent non-mpex liquidation event, on one hand
mircea_popescu: that COULD be worthless, obviously. and it'll have to be accounted for.
mircea_popescu: well suppose the mm gets 1mn contracts, by depositing 1560 btc.
mircea_popescu: lyspooner certainly all changes are announced before the contract trades. this is sacred.
mircea_popescu: admittedly there could still exist an edge case where the mm splits and the holders book a loss
mircea_popescu: anyway, the mm deposit could have been in either of the pair, but btc seems safer.
mircea_popescu: no there isn't. you've been looking at eurodollars too long.