373200+ entries in 0.097s
mircea_popescu: im kinda looking forward to the day when the old world starts actually paying lawyers to troll irc.
mircea_popescu: besides, btc makes us about 5000x as powerful as fiat ever was
mircea_popescu: not like i won't let you make a bet that expires early or that ends with w/e weight etc
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves this discussion mostly started because users can't be arsed to use the fine tuning implem,ents already available
mircea_popescu: you basically now live in a cloudy soup of "i can't fucking know wjhat i'm betting on"
mircea_popescu: mike_c one major problem of the not-time approach is, what if right before your 10btc bet makes it, someone puts in a 1k btc bet.
mircea_popescu: "any woman would be better than the girl next door. except, you know, a really annoying pornstar. or a quadriplegic. or a butch lesbian."
mircea_popescu: however, it may be the best approximation, depending how the problem is actually defined
mircea_popescu: i mean to be clear, im not proposing linear timeweight is the absolutely correct solution. it's obviously wrong, life isn't linear.
mircea_popescu: Vexual it's where people seem to think they do a lot better at predicting outcomes as time goes by
mircea_popescu: mike_c how is your idea different from just splitting the pool according to a polynomial (bet sum) ?
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves basically he proposes to not use a time function, but a bet function
mircea_popescu: i can follow mike_c proposal but not yours, and moreover they seem quite distinct
mircea_popescu: jurov a nonlinear curve would, of course, have to somehow be communicated to the bettors, which may take 16 months of scam accusations in the btctalk.
mircea_popescu: what has materially changed in that bet since a month ago ?
mircea_popescu: not only what mike_c said, but also... then how do you specify the curve.
mircea_popescu: so then what dio you do, have all these bets you can't bet on ?
mircea_popescu: "Even with weights, allowing a diff bet to be open to bets till so close to the resolution date, enormously reduces the incentive to bet until it is an obvious call and thus limits the size of the bets to a few eager early beters plus roughly double the late skimmers. No money in between an thus smaller overall rollers."
mircea_popescu: ok so basically they mostly delivered an avalon clone on a 9 month schedule, and announced a 28nm process on a 3 month schedule late sept.
mircea_popescu: so basically this is a 25% actual rigs (from cointerra) and 75% vaporware.
mircea_popescu: will hit even in 300 days of constant difficulty. also known as never.
mircea_popescu: 240 th they say they're deploying, selling the lot for 50k btc.
mircea_popescu: stealing 2.8mn from idiots does not make the stolen funds investments.
mircea_popescu: the20year2 and then you list the crap and get called a scam and don't understand why.
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 0.01591501 / 0.02752279 - 0.0016129 / 0.00227272