373100+ entries in 0.109s
mircea_popescu: aite. so dems side is now 3 (opresumably) + 3.5 + .95 shares
mircea_popescu: aite, so let's try it. since you're somehow decided it must be 0.1s for some reason, i put 0.5 on dems. what's that do ?
mircea_popescu: bbv1 is neutral on thsi score. if someone buys the other side later it lifts you up
mircea_popescu: just guess the value of the integral, it won't kill you .not like it's a binding contract or anything
mircea_popescu: so if i spend 10 btc i get a number of shares you can't specify. wjhat happens next ?
mircea_popescu: i got 10 btc on the dems right here. i send it to your site. what happens ?
mircea_popescu: so let's run through this. bet is gribble's coin toss comes out heads.
mircea_popescu: mike_c did the academia folks invent something again ?
mircea_popescu: this was "news" in 200 bc too. i dunno why it's so counterintuitive
mircea_popescu: i don't think there's possible substitution for reputation generally.
mircea_popescu: im kinda looking forward to the day when the old world starts actually paying lawyers to troll irc.
mircea_popescu: besides, btc makes us about 5000x as powerful as fiat ever was
mircea_popescu: not like i won't let you make a bet that expires early or that ends with w/e weight etc
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves this discussion mostly started because users can't be arsed to use the fine tuning implem,ents already available
mircea_popescu: you basically now live in a cloudy soup of "i can't fucking know wjhat i'm betting on"
mircea_popescu: mike_c one major problem of the not-time approach is, what if right before your 10btc bet makes it, someone puts in a 1k btc bet.
mircea_popescu: "any woman would be better than the girl next door. except, you know, a really annoying pornstar. or a quadriplegic. or a butch lesbian."
mircea_popescu: however, it may be the best approximation, depending how the problem is actually defined
mircea_popescu: i mean to be clear, im not proposing linear timeweight is the absolutely correct solution. it's obviously wrong, life isn't linear.
mircea_popescu: Vexual it's where people seem to think they do a lot better at predicting outcomes as time goes by
mircea_popescu: mike_c how is your idea different from just splitting the pool according to a polynomial (bet sum) ?
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves basically he proposes to not use a time function, but a bet function
mircea_popescu: i can follow mike_c proposal but not yours, and moreover they seem quite distinct
mircea_popescu: jurov a nonlinear curve would, of course, have to somehow be communicated to the bettors, which may take 16 months of scam accusations in the btctalk.
mircea_popescu: what has materially changed in that bet since a month ago ?
mircea_popescu: not only what mike_c said, but also... then how do you specify the curve.