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mircea_popescu: (which again is proven by the diff curve, with its attendant problems, and by the fiat/btc prices, and by a thousand other glimmers)
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids i r sorry but it is. pretty much any assumption of market efficiency in any bitcoin market is touched in the head.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids stop being so fragile. he just said you're presuming the market is efficient and therefore oyu're stupid
mircea_popescu: currently bitcoin is woefully inefficient : people get beaten into shit, they turn around and reimplement the same thing.
mircea_popescu: see ? that's what mike_c was basically saying originally.
mircea_popescu: obviously the seats in the one restaurant which serves food go by "how much people hungry can afford to pay"
mircea_popescu: the value of the only asset which yields a + is pretty muchj... infinite
mircea_popescu: can't fucking apply numeric methods on something this conceptually fragmented.
mircea_popescu: and obviously, "dude it's a scam through and through" is a third.
mircea_popescu: for that matter, the other angle i can't reduce or disprove is "very small certain income > any other alternative, seeing how all other assets are -EV so far"
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids you seem strangely immune to the currency notion.
mircea_popescu: but yes, to complete the story : for all you know s.mpoe is the fractionary reserve of the btc superrich. for all you know s.mpoe is the doge of assets. for all you know s.mpoe is the golden ticket people dream with.
mircea_popescu: twtr value is defo not derived from any economic activity
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids there's no compelling reason to believe the price of mpoe isn't derived from its value as a currency.
mircea_popescu: o btw... the bitcoin guild in rift ? biggest thing on server.
mircea_popescu: and in general, the safe assumptions in fiat are at the very least suspect in btc.
mircea_popescu: wherein a number of large players keep pushing back and forth holdings of s.mpoe as tokens of credit
mircea_popescu: such as for instance as roughly the equivalent of a discounted us fed
mircea_popescu: another : maybe s.mpoe is becoming monetized in a particular manner,
mircea_popescu: (don't get me wrong, i get the ample wtftude involved here. i humbly submit it's not because of me but because of fundamental issues stemming from the nature of btc)
mircea_popescu: what makes you think you can calculate the eps growth rate implied by the market ?
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids perhaps not the best expression of the concept, but anyway.
mircea_popescu: o wait. we are arguing because you're claiming you can calculate the eps growth.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves it's an indetermination (inf/inf) it'll have to be somehow resolved
mircea_popescu: this will need more research rather than simple c/p stuff that really doesn't work in fiat anyway
mircea_popescu: basically the lot of what i'm saying is that there are no acceptable models to valuate here.
mircea_popescu: this makes the substitute p/b for any other way to get btc in the indefinite future also properly infinite.
mircea_popescu: if one continues to interpolate the current difficulty of mining curve,
mircea_popescu: whenever you seem just about to get it you retreat to declaring you ain't getting it
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids only if mpoe is to close shop in 10 years.
mircea_popescu: normally executions are distributed to actual held options randomly, but atm im holding the pre 14th set apart.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowdurr how would they force someone's short position anyway ?
mircea_popescu: atm the entire option thing is quarantined because of the price signal bs
mircea_popescu: in short... this is a complete nonsensical mess of wires sticking out.
mircea_popescu: you'd have to compare s.mpoe mkt cap with an actual corp's mktcap - book value
mircea_popescu: for that matter, even the s.mpoe mkt cap comparison to an actual comp is broken.
mircea_popescu: consequently models developed for evaluating what are fundamentally pmbs can not usefully be applied.
mircea_popescu: no other business in the history of business sits in this position of "can only turn a profit"
mircea_popescu: trying to compare those Ys with these Ys misses both points.
mircea_popescu: mpoe is so structured shareholders can only make a gain. thus Y > 0, X =0.
mircea_popescu: a pmb will reward X% per interval, and decay Y% per interval, with Y > X for all cases.
mircea_popescu: which is pretty much what everything else is, with sparse exception.
mircea_popescu: anyway, let's consider the historical case as it played out. s.mpoe vs pmbs
mircea_popescu: you could invest in good wallet practices just as well
mircea_popescu: but i suspect this is the overarching point here : 1% gains over a century are immense,
mircea_popescu: mike_c this is actually true, tho at the rate we're going by the time btc moneyness reaches balance the remaining inflation will indeed be very low
mircea_popescu: why do people bet on bitbet ? "so they can't spend the btc", sez someone yest.
mircea_popescu: it's 9x% depending how competent you are with wallets and whatnot.
mircea_popescu: but im attacking herbi because he's much too immersed into fiat nonsense.