341800+ entries in 0.11s
mircea_popescu: i dun see the problem with it, seems a legitimate controversy.
mircea_popescu: i suggest you make a bitbet, as you describe it, and ima bet a little myself.
mircea_popescu: and an example which people still have difficulty following
mircea_popescu: an example which is put there deliberately, by design, by me,
mircea_popescu: obviously if bitbet house simply kept both addreses it'd actually be ahead by now. which makes it a fine example of how you can make money betting both sides early.
mircea_popescu: a) bitbet house bets both sides on all bets, always ; b) in spite of giving away one of the addresses, bitbet house still actually makes bank some months, and overall is just about even ; c) ergo, double betting can be productive.
mircea_popescu: and what's good for people who really believe "make mone yat home by cashing these checks" and "inhearitence!!!" is also good for... "investors"
mircea_popescu: Mats_cd03 Neil not that there's anything wrong with intuition, it's how great things start. it still has to be actually checked with data.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform that hypothesis was only seriously considered by the baesian cultists.
mircea_popescu: VanCleef you know we lolled at that shit like five times already, getting stale.
mircea_popescu: well no problem, but what you're saying doesn't actually make sense.
mircea_popescu: i think you'll have to re-read this later because i can't produce examples if you randomly reject examples.
mircea_popescu: Mats_cd03 spam is not misspelled because the spammers can't hire editors. spam is misspelled because that selects for idiots, and they are looking for idiots (false positives are very expensive for them)
mircea_popescu: during some months it comes AHEAD, which means the dual-betting system actually works.
mircea_popescu: but this aside : why would you figure my stake would *prevent* me from agreeing with the facts ?
mircea_popescu: the trouble is that i'm not disagreeing with you, i'm discussing those facts.
mircea_popescu: you can select any arbitrary pair of yes/no bets and pretend they're made by the same person
mircea_popescu: but this is neither here nor there, much like the green shirt in bank thing
mircea_popescu: this seems reasonably ok. and if more people gang on yes, his 291 diminishes but his insurance increases
mircea_popescu: so he's bet 99 btc, is insured for 11 btc (currently) and stands to gain 291 currently.
mircea_popescu: which... i have no idea what that's supposed to prove ?
mircea_popescu: but it reduces to his either winning or losing the bet
mircea_popescu: unless i'm doing this badly, should the bet come out as yes he's making ~300 btc
mircea_popescu: it helps even more if you publish your method along the dataset, then op can apply it to other sets see if behaviour converges
mircea_popescu: "on this set of 100 consecutive bets, the results for X behaviour are .1 and for Y behaviour are .04"
mircea_popescu: ok but it helps if you bolster that authority claim with actual data
mircea_popescu: "footwear should be made to support taller women because you should see this swede i'm dating"
mircea_popescu: no lol. i'm claiming that on the basis of picking some outliers you can't make general statements.
mircea_popescu: obviously in a case where a 3 month bet was resolved in 4 days waiting pays o.O
mircea_popescu: but i'm just saying, "same address" is an irrelevant selection here.
mircea_popescu: evidence to the contrary of an unsupported thesis is not necessary.
mircea_popescu: much akin to saying "i've never seen anyone in a green tshirt depositing more money in the bank than they were taking out"
mircea_popescu: poor advice/waiting pays/harsher than linear. pick one.
mircea_popescu: inasmuch as we're asking the same thing lol, youcan do both at a time
mircea_popescu: “Assuming that insight will work with people who are unmotivated to change is a colossal misunderstanding."
mircea_popescu: month's volume is 1.7btc tho. someone could easily manipulate it
mircea_popescu: and i very much doubt romania cxan be bothered ot invade either moldova or cernauti
mircea_popescu: there's a us base in constanta, which i guess the us will have to defend
mircea_popescu: roughly the equivalent of mpoe-pr going tyre kicking around berkshire with stuff like "o this is a good investment you bigmouth ?!?! what sort of odds do you give bitcoi nbeats you ? 100:1 ? "