341700+ entries in 0.091s
mircea_popescu: people keep changing things randomly because of this unwarranted and unwelcome expectation that "new and therefore better"
mircea_popescu: basically the business of the bookie equals the actual bookie.
mircea_popescu: the correct way for this to work would be for someone (respected and competent as a bookie) to start a fund
mircea_popescu: or couldn't trust mp or couldn't lock his btc up for months ?
mircea_popescu: so then... what, the guy with 200 didn't know about berkshire ?
mircea_popescu: if anything, the fascinating thing with that 200 is that it didn't land on the no side of berkshire
mircea_popescu: so were the implied odds wrong before or are the implied odds wrong now ?
mircea_popescu: but i can't dispute the facts on the basis of my own opinion either.
mircea_popescu: this is like telling me friction prevents wallstreet from pricing gold, because fucktards in namibia have no ws access
mircea_popescu: all the other smarter-than-life players ended up in the same bin.
mircea_popescu: i suppose in a way it was a gamble, guy risked 2 btc on the theory "bitbet bettors are idiots"
mircea_popescu: that we readily agree. coin toss and weight doesn't mix
mircea_popescu: but your claim mostly consists of a large "bitcoin wont be over 10k" leg with a tiny "this other thing" leg
mircea_popescu: so just because he went on long odds you're telling me bitbet is broken ? dude wanted the long odds, what can i say
mircea_popescu: i'll take even odds on the proposition that 1k4fs makes money *irrespective* of result
mircea_popescu: but then i'd have to hedge it somehow because clearly it's contingent on how the bet plays out.
mircea_popescu: i dun see the problem with it, seems a legitimate controversy.
mircea_popescu: i suggest you make a bitbet, as you describe it, and ima bet a little myself.
mircea_popescu: and an example which people still have difficulty following
mircea_popescu: an example which is put there deliberately, by design, by me,
mircea_popescu: obviously if bitbet house simply kept both addreses it'd actually be ahead by now. which makes it a fine example of how you can make money betting both sides early.
mircea_popescu: a) bitbet house bets both sides on all bets, always ; b) in spite of giving away one of the addresses, bitbet house still actually makes bank some months, and overall is just about even ; c) ergo, double betting can be productive.
mircea_popescu: and what's good for people who really believe "make mone yat home by cashing these checks" and "inhearitence!!!" is also good for... "investors"
mircea_popescu: Mats_cd03 Neil not that there's anything wrong with intuition, it's how great things start. it still has to be actually checked with data.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform that hypothesis was only seriously considered by the baesian cultists.
mircea_popescu: VanCleef you know we lolled at that shit like five times already, getting stale.
mircea_popescu: well no problem, but what you're saying doesn't actually make sense.
mircea_popescu: i think you'll have to re-read this later because i can't produce examples if you randomly reject examples.
mircea_popescu: Mats_cd03 spam is not misspelled because the spammers can't hire editors. spam is misspelled because that selects for idiots, and they are looking for idiots (false positives are very expensive for them)
mircea_popescu: during some months it comes AHEAD, which means the dual-betting system actually works.
mircea_popescu: but this aside : why would you figure my stake would *prevent* me from agreeing with the facts ?
mircea_popescu: the trouble is that i'm not disagreeing with you, i'm discussing those facts.
mircea_popescu: you can select any arbitrary pair of yes/no bets and pretend they're made by the same person
mircea_popescu: but this is neither here nor there, much like the green shirt in bank thing
mircea_popescu: this seems reasonably ok. and if more people gang on yes, his 291 diminishes but his insurance increases
mircea_popescu: so he's bet 99 btc, is insured for 11 btc (currently) and stands to gain 291 currently.
mircea_popescu: which... i have no idea what that's supposed to prove ?
mircea_popescu: but it reduces to his either winning or losing the bet
mircea_popescu: unless i'm doing this badly, should the bet come out as yes he's making ~300 btc