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mircea_popescu: write a google search application that finds answers to bets based on queries derived from bet text,
mircea_popescu: ie, here's a very simple way to have fun as a bright young programmer :
mircea_popescu: something like "x on winner, half x on loser for all bets" or w/e other strategy
mircea_popescu: generally speaking mechanical, constraint betting results in better ev than "feelers".
mircea_popescu: anyway, 5.x btc profit on a 70ish btc budget as a handicapper is really not that bad.
mircea_popescu: mike_c the point about "it dun really matter so much to correctly identify the house" stands too, for the angle discussed in chat.
mircea_popescu: ha! the house clears 10% ? i had it pegged at about 8%
mircea_popescu: 1. take first 3 bets. 2. exclude one. 2.1 either the 1st, if it has the same exit addy as one of the other 2, and the two have same weight, or else the 3rd.
mircea_popescu: but the two you keep always have the exact same weight
mircea_popescu: mike_c the one you exclude a) always has the same output as one of the remainder two and is either made at weight 100k
mircea_popescu: mike_c the correct selection for house bets is to take the first three bets of any wager, and exclude one of them
mircea_popescu: now i look at the market, prices fell an average of 40% across all product classes.
mircea_popescu: also in the news, i took about a week off because of all the press nuttery, during which i stopped buying raw materials
mircea_popescu: aaand trilema, teh rift guild just went over 1k members
mircea_popescu: i like big women too, but these seem big in all the wrong ways in all the wrong places.
mircea_popescu: then you're regaled something from the roadside freakshwo cca 1905
mircea_popescu: lmao at all this "genetically superior both physically and mentally"
mircea_popescu: nubbins` isn't it traditionally reserved for the girlfriend of the chemist making the dope ?
mircea_popescu: davout well i can't find it now. some kid from the "community" of self-proclaimed experts wrote some sort of article/"white paper" on how bitcoin exchanges should do x y z to get their risk of blowing up in line with the risk of the average 20yo getting hit by a bus
mircea_popescu: because you know, little train engines that can, these people.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform yeah something based on how likely it is for the avg 20yo to bite it
mircea_popescu: supported by evidence this strange view oif his, seeing how bitcoin exchanges have the life expectancy of trisomic neonates
mircea_popescu: davout from what i recall, some random idiot opining was claiming that getting the average bitcoin exchange at the safety rate of the average human would be a great gain in security.
mircea_popescu: asset-based corps dampen management incompetence, allowing outright thieves to run for a longer time than the yshou;d
mircea_popescu: which part, the different risk class part or the sorting of the classes part ?
mircea_popescu: not saying asset-holding is bad for all time or anything, but it is riskier.
mircea_popescu: the argument boils down to "fully distributed, non-asset hodling btc corps are a better risk class"
mircea_popescu: so what's in scope is running the court system of bitcoin
mircea_popescu: to this position where he jsut lost a good 90% of his value
mircea_popescu: investor has gone from this position where he realises gains each month
mircea_popescu: then two years later wynn hotels hit a slow patch, get sold for scrap
mircea_popescu: and it finally means that about 70% of that value is actual assets.
mircea_popescu: this obviously will force a modification o the contract, making bitbet a nz0 now.
mircea_popescu: the forums will be extremely excited at this development.
mircea_popescu: but consider this : suppose tomorrow some great[ly idiotic] new manager takes over from me, and decides to expand bitbet by buying wynn hotels.
mircea_popescu: expansion in that sense is not useful for an investor.