log☇︎
328400+ entries in 2.229s
mircea_popescu: still, 150k + the 4 rigs he has on order, i'd say it's pretty decent
mircea_popescu: SUMMARY 51,231.88 + 99 so i guess you're right, like 150k
dub: I think bob and others have had an extra hard week buying off SR
mircea_popescu: i thought he had about 40% in gpus and about 90% in fpga ?
OneEyed: mircea_popescu: I just realized that on your post, you don't answer the "how does one list on mpex". Shouldn't you at least give an email to use to propose you a new asset for MPEX?
mircea_popescu: no. i am working on a system where users can pay bitcoin and take WTI
dub: I lost $7
mircea_popescu: i never used it either.
OneEyed: But I have never even used bitcoinca, so it was more like yet another movie to me
OneEyed: mircea_popescu: I haven't read it before
OneEyed: Well, I guess phantomcircuit is quite a good source
OneEyed: New stuff about bitcoinica in #bitcoin-otc: phantomcircuit | as far as i can tell now bitcoinica has not ever been able to cover it's obligations
femtotube: huh... I almost thought that mods are gone mad too. Sorry
femtotube: hold on, my mistake I looked at the wrong url :)
OneEyed: femtotube: that's what I was asking earlier today, since it looked like some of the girl posts had been removed, I wondered if it was self-control or moderation
OneEyed: Fuck your link to David Thorne site, last time I landed there I spent two hours reading it
mircea_popescu: i'm that mean.
Ignatius-otc: so mircea_popescu I was reading your recent post ( http://trilema.com/2012/how-does-one-list-on-mpex/ ) and can't help but wonder about potential listing son mpex. per the guidelines listed virtually no businesses qualify
Diablo-D3: smickles: I think Im just going to continue buying back DMC until theres none left
Diablo-D3: smickles: sorry, I have to turn you down on your accounting offer
jurov: yes. and i'm too lazy to open it.. am not alone it sems
jurov: i'd like to know what would you say about GamblingMan, if you forgot that was you
rg: [14:06] <GamblingMan> So let me ask you this mircea_popescu: What is the worst investment I could make on the GLBSE?
OneEyed: I'll guess this transaction will take a long time to be included in the blockchain, 1 satoshi and no fee: http://blockchain.info/tx/7fd45788453c8da25498335623a52acc9215071543b2f1055773ac33321bbceb
GamblingMan: Now I can't even get a crap recommendation...
GamblingMan: I guess he doesn't like giving investment advice now?
GamblingMan: C'mon. I really would like to buy the worst asset in your opinion and track the results of it vs. SD
mircea_popescu: i have no ideea, i don't follow that much.
GamblingMan: So let me ask you this mircea_popescu: What is the worst investment I could make on the GLBSE?
OneEyed: Yeah, I ended up with 1 satoshi on this address
GamblingMan: I'm just a guy with a shit ton of BTC and was looking to put some of it to work.
GamblingMan: I'm not a finance expert if that is what you're asking.
GamblingMan: I expect the interest on borrowing would be higher than the dividends.
GamblingMan: Why would I want to pay interest to own shitty shares?
mircea_popescu: i remember even a decade ago, the shills were a lot better.
GamblingMan: I have a feeling that next month will be even shittier. ;)
gribble: usagi was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 2 hours, 40 minutes, and 29 seconds ago: <usagi> I can bounce back but it would really piss me off
OneEyed: So if the game is flawed, it's biased towards me right now, I guess that's why you get low dividends :)
OneEyed: GamblingMan: but I've no doubt I'll loose everything, but right now, my returns are more than 100% if you remove the fees (which were high because I chose to start with .001 + .0005 of fees)
GamblingMan: I agree. At least a higher fee would benefit mining pool owners.
mircea_popescu: really tho, if it were up to me i'd make the fee larger.
OneEyed: I have more than the original 0.15 amount minus the fees
OneEyed: I'm at 0.09154748 BTC now
OneEyed: I played 128 games so far, with 0.0005 in fees every time
OneEyed: GamblingMan: you're kidding? I started with 0.15, 0.05 being for the fees!
OneEyed: GamblingMan: I won't, you told me it was a bad deal :)
OneEyed: I'll try harder
OneEyed: Shit, I managed to increase the balance while trying to empty it :)
rdponticelli: Yeah, I intended asking, but hes away
mircea_popescu: rdponticelli i think you'll have to ask him that
rdponticelli: I meant MPOE.ETF... Anyway, do you know if smickles allow to redeem the shares for S.M?POE
OneEyed: I will not, in order to spend the last 0.05 I have there :)
OneEyed: No, I was already above the expectation. You can check itself, I've done no other transaction on this address
GamblingMan: You should have stuck with the original test, but I assume after losing a few dozen times in a row using the 98% address, you gave up. ;)
OneEyed: Yeah, I'm lucky :)
OneEyed: So I lost less than expected
GamblingMan: Anyone can IPO anything at whatever they want and then stop selling cheap shares. I know you're familiar with manipulation.
OneEyed: Ok, here is my result. I had .15 at this address, I now have .06685859. I placed 80 + 24 bets (104 total), paying .0005 fees every time I sent and every time I won. I expected: .15 - .0015*104 + 80*(.001*.97653*1.04 - .0005*.97653) + 24*(.001*.244141*4.003 - .0005*.244141)
mircea_popescu: and i hear it's getting closed out at about 1 or something like that.
mircea_popescu: course from what i hear mpoe.etf is closing down, so too late for that.
GamblingMan: I am better off now. :)
GamblingMan: now I know that mircea_popescu is 100% full of shit.
GamblingMan: I took a risk without doing DD.
mircea_popescu: about 66k at 0.32 i see.
GamblingMan: Hopefully they do, looks like I took out the decent bid walls.
GamblingMan: I doubt my asks will ever hit again...
GamblingMan: I guess I might as well cut my losses now and sell a few thousand more.
GamblingMan: I've sold off a few thousand shares already this morning.
GamblingMan: "i doubt i claimed that." - ridiculous
mircea_popescu: i doubt i claimed that.
mircea_popescu: OneEyed anyway, the system whereby you pay post to me, i pay post to you seems pretty fair.
GamblingMan: I'm all for that.
GamblingMan: No, I pasted your expected return listed above.
GamblingMan: 97.9% - I think not.
OneEyed: GamblingMan: I wanted you to send me money to do the test
GamblingMan: I wanted to see you post the number.
GamblingMan: I thought you'd post a nice %. I already know what your results will be...
OneEyed: GamblingMan: I gave you the address, you can follow it yourself
OneEyed: GamblingMan: none, I stopped in the middle and changed the 1dice address in order to diversify the bets, but that should still average the advertised returns
OneEyed: Yes, I was here, using the same IP as OgNasty before
mircea_popescu: well there was some guy bashing by that name, also off webchat, yest i think
mircea_popescu: lol i re-read the list, seems to me unlikely he had any shares.
OneEyed: And by doing so, I'm probably increasing his future dividends by 1 satoshi or so :)
mircea_popescu: those people are significantly more on the ball than i am
OneEyed: I'm just checking some claims by GamblingMan
OneEyed: No, I've read it
mircea_popescu: OneEyed im not an expert on the entire thing tbh, i just list em.
OneEyed: I thought *they* payed it :)
OneEyed: I should win almost every time (97.9% of the time)
OneEyed: to the 97.9% win address, with an expected gain of 1.004x when I win
OneEyed: I send bets of 0.001
OneEyed: Either I'm doing something wrong with SatoshiDice, or something is wrong on their side…
GamblingMan: Great. I'm expecting your test to return somewhere in the 45-55% range.
OneEyed: Shit, transactions not accepted to memory pool, sucker, after some of them. I'll have to wait a bit to get 100 of them
GamblingMan: I actually returned an average of 48% through all of my testing...
OneEyed: Ohhh, the min bet is 0.001, I thought it was 0.01, so the test could be done with 500 send for .75 BTC
GamblingMan: I was told that the stated odds "are just guidelines"
GamblingMan: OneEyed: I tried once. Everyone bashed me and reacted like people did in here when I mentioned it.
GamblingMan: That is why I figured I'd invest with them.... But then the claimed dividend payment was less than 1/3 of what I was expecting after talking to mircea.
OneEyed: Why would I play a game where the odds are against me,