log☇︎
316700+ entries in 0.061s
mircea_popescu: AND the beauty of parimutuel is that you can always adjust your exposure to a pot %
mircea_popescu: to explain this to people, who otherwise would be betting
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones which is why i need a bunch of fucking affiliates
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla that can't be past year. it must be all time
mircea_popescu: etc
mircea_popescu: then you want to push the other way ? bet a little more on mp. so its now 58k to 37k
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 57/37
mircea_popescu: to
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 57/33
mircea_popescu: so odds went from
mircea_popescu: pot moves 57k to 37k
mircea_popescu: one hour later, weight being 84,500 you decide to buy more LP
mircea_popescu: and weight is whatever, 85k
mircea_popescu: at game start on 5th, weighted pots are 57k MP 33k LP
mircea_popescu: so, on 1st of month bet MP vs LP is made. game is set for 5th. bet closes on 7th.
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones let me translate what you just described in bitbet terms.
mircea_popescu: at some point after the event/
mircea_popescu: im not sure why you think what you're describing isn't already present on bitbet.
mircea_popescu: line style ?
mircea_popescu: i don't actually bet
mircea_popescu: explain this trading vol thing
mircea_popescu: in exchange for which they don't mind -50% EV
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones drinks, tits, streaming game, betting tips, a whole atmosphere such as it is
mircea_popescu: for which bitbet is poorly fitted
mircea_popescu: mike_c the other way to formulate this is, sports bettors are not motivated by the money. they expect specific sorts of services provided
mircea_popescu: mike_c prolly a large factor also.
mircea_popescu: maybe
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform yes, but that's the same bitcents they do here
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla do me a favour, calculat ethe sum pool over the sports bets past 365 days
mircea_popescu: tlp actually has a good write-up for this
mircea_popescu: not through anythingelse.
mircea_popescu: unwashed masses wish to arise THOUGH WAITING
mircea_popescu: seems not.
mircea_popescu: just put em all in misc
mircea_popescu: the way I figure it, if the wc set fails to attract 500 btc total pool, we'll just ditch sports as a category and mostly reject all proposed sports bet without zeroconf
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla definitely sports don't merit their own category im thinking.
mircea_popescu: the halep french open one
mircea_popescu: well guess what! in the past year there's exactly one sports bet that went over 5. you know which ?
mircea_popescu: mike_c a that's true. so i guess 5.
mircea_popescu: mike_c you know break even is 10 btc pool right ?
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla right ? nerdiest thing ever.
mircea_popescu: mike_c you know nba isn't doing SO much better
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/879/joel-embiid-to-be-1-nba-draft-pick/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/765/okc-thunder-to-top-nba-regular-season-rankings/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/788/a-golfer-from-usa-will-win-the-2014/
mircea_popescu: 0 interest in sports.
mircea_popescu: basically this is the best proof bitcoin is populated by nerds
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/837/nadal-to-win-french-open/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/878/dee-gordon-most-stolen-bases-2014/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/887/billy-hamilton-rookie-of-the-year/
mircea_popescu: look at that junk
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/895/yankees-to-get-most-all-star-selections/
mircea_popescu: 295 results found
mircea_popescu: except back then it actually worked
mircea_popescu: im prettysure they were doing plenty of seo whatever back then
mircea_popescu: at an average sale of ~60, you do the math.
mircea_popescu: anyway, in 1994 a good affiliate could send you even 100k clicks which'd convert upwards of 10%
mircea_popescu: i guess so. sad.
mircea_popescu: maybe in the meanwhile it died, i dunno. probable, judging by the fact that everyone i used to know back then is off the grid.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i don't even know what the state of the industry is anymore. 20 years ago you had the legitimate folk and then the dumb noobs pretending, much like in bitcoin
mircea_popescu: lol
mircea_popescu: and an affiliate manager is a guy who knows a lot of affiliate marketeers who trust him.
mircea_popescu: nubbins` this is atlantic noob :D
mircea_popescu: aok
mircea_popescu: mike_c what's a manu ginobli
mircea_popescu: apparently everyone wants to sit on his ass and derp on reddit about things, nobody wants to work anymore
mircea_popescu: obviously also a great time to affliate bitbet, but then again, i couldn't even find an affiliate manager at all
mircea_popescu: so logically a) if you wonder later why your zeroconf sports bet got rejected by mods, the reason ios probably here and b) if you want to see sport bets on bitbet, this is a bad time to sit and watch and a great time to get involved.
mircea_popescu: but, let me point out, this is pretty horrible business for bitbet, per se. and obviously, i'll be using this data to inform further decisions on what to accept.
mircea_popescu: obviously mods wanted to consult. now, in the spirit of being in argentina and these people loving the wc, i ok'd the whole bulk
mircea_popescu: Ok so here's a story : BitBet curently has 19 World Cup bets open. The average bet on these is .175 (excluding house and mpif), like so .79, .44, 0, .21, .60, .10, .54, .03, 0, 0, .01, 0, .05, .28, .01, .04, 0, .11, .11. Now, on top of these, there's no less than 30 bets pending approval on WC, pretty much "X country will advance from groups".
mircea_popescu: maybe had lawyers
mircea_popescu: balsamic + wine ~= rice wine + vinegar
mircea_popescu: well ?
mircea_popescu: rice wine is, yes!
mircea_popescu: i wanna congratulat him on his atc purchase
mircea_popescu: mike_c ya tell him to come over
mircea_popescu: oft times ill just put it to fire for a few minutes and have it for breakfast
mircea_popescu: but anyway, salmon isvery tolerant. you can eat it raw, you can eat it cooked to any degree
mircea_popescu: why without the wine and spice ?
mircea_popescu: welcome
mircea_popescu: bigtip never seen you before :p
mircea_popescu: ;;gettrust assbot bigtip
mircea_popescu: did kako just ruin bitbet ?
mircea_popescu: o no!
mircea_popescu: benkay ya, wanna go whitewatering ? :D
mircea_popescu: and on and fucking on.
mircea_popescu: that is the fucking point of currency and more generally life on earth. so that lazier kids get left behind in footbal practice, and that dumber kids get left behind dating
mircea_popescu: of fucking course a global currency would cause poorer countriesd to be left behind
mircea_popescu: mike_c doesn't rss have field extensibility ? you gotta use cdata ?
mircea_popescu: IN rss :D
mircea_popescu: so do json
mircea_popescu: just dump them all in there with a flag
mircea_popescu: lol
mircea_popescu: moiety you still have a btc with me, got an address yet ?
mircea_popescu: !up surf
mircea_popescu: one glass of ice.
mircea_popescu: yes. one glass of scotch
mircea_popescu: http://browsershots.org/http://bitbet.us/propositions/ << clearly problem exists between mike_c monitor and mike_c's chair :D
mircea_popescu: actually someone should make a lolpost about "break the age glass ceiling! women should be killed off by the government so that on average they live as long as men!!11"