log☇︎
316600+ entries in 0.065s
mircea_popescu: heh.
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 623.452038028 * 1.482
mircea_popescu: ;;ticker
mircea_popescu: Confirmed total: 14820 BTC. so like 1.482 btc average pool
mircea_popescu: we crossed 10k
mircea_popescu: and with this little adventure, Confirmed bets: 10009
mircea_popescu: no idea what i'll do with this entertainment section tho, it's even more fucked up than sports currently.
mircea_popescu: -assets will become this place to watch sports!
mircea_popescu: this should also work nicely with []bot's live streaming of bets.
mircea_popescu: !up PoUpA
mircea_popescu: so from now on, sports bets will end at 10k, and close after the event.
mircea_popescu: but NOT if they're 1/100000
mircea_popescu: then a few bitcoin bets during the event make sense, even if they're 1/10 weight
mircea_popescu: but if the most it collects is the few bicents we mostly get currently,
mircea_popescu: consider our case. bet is made on 1st. weight is 100k. if someone puts 10 btc on it then, it's sealed.
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones yes but 100k to 1 is too much for sports.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform yeah i was thinking that
mircea_popescu: :(
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla ^
mircea_popescu: o and ALSO... make close weight 10k
mircea_popescu: i wonder if people's cvs will end up including links to ba logs where i go "my bad"
mircea_popescu: new resolution date becomes that +1 day
mircea_popescu: just do it like this : current resolutrion date becomes close date
mircea_popescu: hm lemme look at this again
mircea_popescu: give people a fucking chance with the bets clearing
mircea_popescu: 26 close 27 resolve
mircea_popescu: and add 1 to close too
mircea_popescu: 908 to 937
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones there.
mircea_popescu: i hate me too.
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla hey listen, we take the close date on the recent WC batch from 24th to 26th ?
mircea_popescu: o how have i sinned ;/
mircea_popescu: meh.
mircea_popescu: so 57 over 166.
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla of which 201 arefrom the cointoss
mircea_popescu: specifically, i'll make the mods put close dates for sports bets AFTER the event.
mircea_popescu: anyway, this bitchfest of mine has yielded quite actionable advice from the chan that's +IQ
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones my bad :D
mircea_popescu: jesus fuck.
mircea_popescu: i broke the model in the implementation ;/
mircea_popescu: you bring a motherfucking VERY GOOD POINT don't you,.
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones oh fuck.
mircea_popescu: if you own 1% of all bitcoin, you're guaranteed a 1% slice of any bet pool you ever wish to have.
mircea_popescu: mike_c provided you own the % of total world capital that you wish your % of the pool to be
mircea_popescu: you wish to have 1% of the pot, you can make sure you do no matter what happens
mircea_popescu: so you never motherfucking get taken out of the game
mircea_popescu: AND the beauty of parimutuel is that you can always adjust your exposure to a pot %
mircea_popescu: to explain this to people, who otherwise would be betting
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones which is why i need a bunch of fucking affiliates
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla that can't be past year. it must be all time
mircea_popescu: etc
mircea_popescu: then you want to push the other way ? bet a little more on mp. so its now 58k to 37k
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 57/37
mircea_popescu: to
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 57/33
mircea_popescu: so odds went from
mircea_popescu: pot moves 57k to 37k
mircea_popescu: one hour later, weight being 84,500 you decide to buy more LP
mircea_popescu: and weight is whatever, 85k
mircea_popescu: at game start on 5th, weighted pots are 57k MP 33k LP
mircea_popescu: so, on 1st of month bet MP vs LP is made. game is set for 5th. bet closes on 7th.
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones let me translate what you just described in bitbet terms.
mircea_popescu: at some point after the event/
mircea_popescu: im not sure why you think what you're describing isn't already present on bitbet.
mircea_popescu: line style ?
mircea_popescu: i don't actually bet
mircea_popescu: explain this trading vol thing
mircea_popescu: in exchange for which they don't mind -50% EV
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones drinks, tits, streaming game, betting tips, a whole atmosphere such as it is
mircea_popescu: for which bitbet is poorly fitted
mircea_popescu: mike_c the other way to formulate this is, sports bettors are not motivated by the money. they expect specific sorts of services provided
mircea_popescu: mike_c prolly a large factor also.
mircea_popescu: maybe
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform yes, but that's the same bitcents they do here
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla do me a favour, calculat ethe sum pool over the sports bets past 365 days
mircea_popescu: tlp actually has a good write-up for this
mircea_popescu: not through anythingelse.
mircea_popescu: unwashed masses wish to arise THOUGH WAITING
mircea_popescu: seems not.
mircea_popescu: just put em all in misc
mircea_popescu: the way I figure it, if the wc set fails to attract 500 btc total pool, we'll just ditch sports as a category and mostly reject all proposed sports bet without zeroconf
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla definitely sports don't merit their own category im thinking.
mircea_popescu: the halep french open one
mircea_popescu: well guess what! in the past year there's exactly one sports bet that went over 5. you know which ?
mircea_popescu: mike_c a that's true. so i guess 5.
mircea_popescu: mike_c you know break even is 10 btc pool right ?
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla right ? nerdiest thing ever.
mircea_popescu: mike_c you know nba isn't doing SO much better
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/879/joel-embiid-to-be-1-nba-draft-pick/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/765/okc-thunder-to-top-nba-regular-season-rankings/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/788/a-golfer-from-usa-will-win-the-2014/
mircea_popescu: 0 interest in sports.
mircea_popescu: basically this is the best proof bitcoin is populated by nerds
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/837/nadal-to-win-french-open/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/878/dee-gordon-most-stolen-bases-2014/
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/887/billy-hamilton-rookie-of-the-year/
mircea_popescu: look at that junk
mircea_popescu: http://bitbet.us/bet/895/yankees-to-get-most-all-star-selections/
mircea_popescu: 295 results found
mircea_popescu: except back then it actually worked