306300+ entries in 2.35s
furuknap: I see. I'm fine with using provocative wording to cause
a reaction. People tend to remember (if not agree) with statements that strongly contradict their perception of reality.
mircea_popescu: it's the wording. any one miner knows he's not betting on THAT. so you'll get
a lot of misdirected protestation
mircea_popescu: well, you seemed to interested to know why people are throwing
a fit avbout it.
furuknap: Ah, you're arguing about the wording. That's fine. The article is trying to show that in the case of
a price drop,
a miner gains more coins by holding gear. Difficulty isn't relevant here because mining isn't part of the equation.
mircea_popescu: you could as well say that buying mining gear is
a bet on the aliens showing up and wanting to buy it for infinite money.
mircea_popescu: presenting any definite activity in terms of it being "
A bet on X arbitrary contingency" is
a peculiar and not particularly useful manner of speech.
furuknap: Mining equipment is such
a commodity. In fact, that's why I used the currency trick in the first section.
mircea_popescu: buying mining gear isn't
a bet on some contingent future event.
mircea_popescu: ok. inasmuch as getting married isn;t
a bet on some contingent future event
furuknap: No? Definitely not sure I'm following you, unless you're talking about
a wife being
a commodity that can be resold at
a lower price point and you have to pay to get her.
mircea_popescu: is getting married
a bet that your wife-to-be has an unknown uncle in argentina who will leave her
a billion dollar inheritance ?
mircea_popescu: is buying
a cup of coffee in the morning
a bet that fiat will collapse by noon ?
mircea_popescu: let's put it this way : it's true that
a slut is
a much better catch than
a priss on any blind dating sit down
furuknap: The article shows that
a dropping price always yields
a much higher profit than mining.
mircea_popescu: it's nevertheless not exactly true that buying gear is
a bet on price dropping.
mircea_popescu: while its true that for any purchase of mining hardware there's
a price point where it becomes unprofitable,
inhies: then just swap out the series on the chart when
a link is clicked or something
inhies: and then make
a new series
parseval: It would need
a page reload, or possibly some ajax pulling of
a new piece of series data, because it'd essentially be
a different series on the chart
inhies: like
a daily candlestick
inhies: without adjustable periouds you just end up with
a candlestick chart like havelock has
inhies: any plans on offering
a candlestick chart?
inhies: im working on
a web interface for my bot using highstock
furuknap: He posted that in the AM-thread
a bit back.
parseval: Yeah, that's just
a dev server, nothing too fancy yet
furuknap: Ah... Sierracharts has some nice analysis features. If you do C++, it shouldn't be too hard to map that there. I've been pondering writing
a BTCT trade engine module, but I realized it's 20 years since I wrote C++, so I skipped it :-)
parseval: Nice.. this is about 448mb in
a postgres database, with ORM wrappings
inhies: and resulted in
a 150mb sqlite3 db
Chaaang-Noi: nothing wrong with
a bit of drunk trolling here and there :)
Chaaang-Noi: silver took
a more than 5% hit out the gate this morning, crazy
inhies: new favorite quote "nobody ever went broke taking
a profit"
KRS1: LOL just bought
a bunch on btc-e for $111.50
truffles: well at least we know kako isnt
a Thelemite...
fiat500: i am investing in
a virtual currency and that is
a risk in and of itself, i dont need
a babysitter :P
fiat500: they decided to deleverage usd on gox, so all of
a sudden gox bids disappeared, and we were left with shitty bstp bids at 115
Chaaang-Noi: <fiat500> you guys let emotion get i nthe way of money? at times yes, i use money as
a tool for power....
furuknap: <Chaaang-Noi> friedcat does, you bought
a pt, not real shares *in AM* (FTFY)
Chaaang-Noi: friedcat does, you bought
a pt, not real shares
furuknap: TAT, what do you mean, you don't ahve
a chatbot to represent yourself while you sleep?
Chaaang-Noi: i only hold AM and
a bit of cognitive, about 5% of cog
Chaaang-Noi: i have over
a million usd in btc securtities
kakobrekla: ok, so im thinking, to be in this room, one must have at least
a few btc
fiat500: given
a long enough time frame, btc is just as likely to be worth $1 as it is to be worth $1k
furuknap: It was just that I poked
a bit of fun at the sell-off that lead to drop from 122ish to 119ish.
fiat500: if that turns out to be
a scam i have no way to get any of my investment back
fiat500: furuknap: this is
a lot less risky than the ~$5k i sunk into single SCs
ThickAsThieves: so ive been waiting like 36 hours for
a withdrawal from BTCTC
Chaaang-Noi: cool, im not 100% it will work out, but its
a nice hedge for your AM
truffles: rly, its
a solo operation then geez
Chaaang-Noi: fiat500 if i were you i could buy cognitive as
a hedge on your AM
fiat500: i have about 2btc left over on btct after buying those AM shares, what would be
a good satoshi stock to buy?
fiat500: winklevii should have just spent the 1.5mil on
a market buy rather than invest in silly bitinstant
gribble: This order would exceed the size of the order book. You would buy 127623.47 bitcoins, for
a total of 27476910383494.7734 USD and take the price to 13370133701337.0000. | Data vintage: 59.0720 seconds
Chaaang-Noi: mp sold 30,000 shares or whatever at
a high price so fine, but the people who bought, lol retards
Chaaang-Noi: assbot> [MPEX] [S.DICE] 577 @ 0.00200002 = 1.154 BTC [-]
a lower low?
BitHub: that's why i want to buy
a batch of hardware wallets
fiat500: BitHub: i mean someone with
a bfl farm
BitHub: right, plus bfl and avalon aren't exactly building
a farm right?
furuknap: In scale, it seems that 100TH is the only thing currently lined up to match AM. I threw
a few coins there to see what stuck. Either it goes to zero or it works. As far as I know, neither Avalon, BFL, or the swedes have anything public.
fiat500: is there
a BFL-backed security anywhere?
furuknap: Investors who want to evaluate
a share's value do.
furuknap: That's why one of the things I asked friedcat to start publishing is financial reports. Once
a quarter is fine, more frequent isn't really necessary.
Chaaang-Noi: i asked him in
a board meeting, might not have been
a rule but he said tehy wont sell the 200k
furuknap: True, but they announced them two weeks ago. If they get the revenue paid out as dividends in two weeks, then it takes
a month to sell ฿20K, or ฿5K per week, which isn't enough to sustain 0.036 per week.
Chaaang-Noi: i have
a lot of stock and im slowly cashing out cuz i want hookers and coke money... but AM is pretty damn solid
Chaaang-Noi: well to be honest, im selling
a bit at 2 and 2.5, not buying, but i would hold at 1.5 to 2
furuknap: Bitfury may be
a very strong outsider. If they get their shit together for June, they're already one generation ahead of AM and can produce hashes much faster. Then, AM must catch up, and we don't know where in the process they are.
Chaaang-Noi: that was
a guess assumming BFL could ship, its clear now they cant
Chaaang-Noi: we are at 30% of the network and sell off hardware, while having THs 1000 THs in the pipeline... you are using some bull shit 10% number that was
a guess 9 months ago...
ThickAsThieves: why you would sell off after
a few months, yet use theories that span 5 years
furuknap: Chaang, it depends on how you evaluate risk. In my striclty personal opinion, I would evaluate
a price between 1.3 and 1.5 to support my risk profile with
a reasonable yield and expecting
a network hash rate between 10 and 15% on overage over five years.
KRS1: so its feasible to say AM could be
a victim of their own success?
Chaaang-Noi: yeah fried cat will odds are have gen 2 out before bfl can ship other than
a few prototypes
ThickAsThieves: also Friedcat has commited to
a 10% minimum, no average
ThickAsThieves: today we call an asset that pays 1% divs monthly
a dog
furuknap: Let's make
a simple example. You can give me 10 coins now in escrow, and every year I will give you 1 coin in interest, thus yielding 10% per year. However, after 4 years, your initial 10 coins will be reduced to 5 coins. Thus, the yield is not 10%, it is negative 2.5% because over four years, you're left with 9 coins.