298600+ entries in 0.077s
mircea_popescu: anything is promised when the matter at hand is extending the life of promise as a thing into the world.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform well, they aren't in fact, but surely, such is promised.
mircea_popescu: but then again they were specifically uninclusive, or should i say anti-inclusive.
mircea_popescu: notably the inventors of capitalism didn't either want or use such procedures.
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones yeah, no practical way for an unwotted system to work otherwise.
mircea_popescu: in bankruptcy proceedings with an aroma of fraud, criminal liability may flow through such trades
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform in bankruptcy proceedings, suspect trades of the management can be attached to the proceedings.
mircea_popescu: should be interesting, because no way that doesn't get attached.
mircea_popescu: fluffypony you know i can't look at spagni.net and not think spaghetti on the first pass.
mircea_popescu: kinda best argument against survival, that. "you'll end up weird."
mircea_popescu: it boggles the mind what ends up being sop in a system that survives long enough.
mircea_popescu: this isn't something other countries can do, nor do they need to. this is the one opportunity they get to stock up.
mircea_popescu: anyway, that's the major change here. after the missed boat of govt mining last year, this year the us fed has actually given its infinite fiat backing to any scheme that convincingly may help, and meanwhile to trying to depress price.
mircea_popescu: it's kinda funny how this works in qm terms. basically, an oracle of the wave function, but just on the real part. is this actually useful ?
mircea_popescu: but yes, for momentum shorts soft landing is the worst fucking news imaginable. so far, we're beating the shit out of a soft flubbery substance the size of a continent.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform what i think on that topic is perhaps apparent from what i do, namely, that i'm even talking about all this.
mircea_popescu: thankfully, uncommon sense prevailed. so far at least.
mircea_popescu: anyway, this whole charade'd have worked a damned sight better if the various y-combinator bezzlers, the foundation hearn, gmaxwell and co would have actually had what they thought they had and everyone thought they should have, ie, actual respectability and bitcoin cred.
mircea_popescu: if the volcano never erupts, the fertile land on its slopes is actually enough to make the village own the other villages and build an empire.
mircea_popescu: but suddenly, the large early holdings that all the shitheads-with-a-megaphone were decrying as dangerous to bitcoin
mircea_popescu: unremarkably, the worthless shitheads that joined late have nothing to contribute.
mircea_popescu: and so here we are. part ii of the game is, how much do you ~actually~ like this thing, once money actually is on the table.
mircea_popescu: they are no major concern for the usg in either case, because man who hangs for a goat might as well hang for a goat and a chick
mircea_popescu: all these loan contracts are promised to unwind in fiat eventually, and will be in fact profitable for all parties if and only if bitcoin actually fails.
mircea_popescu: any usg affiliate or more likely, herpy q derp that looks like he may acquire any btc sum through any means will receive all the soft backing possible, from business insder news articles to an invitation to the fucking white house. anything whatsoever as long as it loks natural rather than spammy
mircea_popescu: here's the scheme : whatever usg affiliate, be it goldman sachs or herpy q derp that holds any sum of btc will lend it to the usg btc policy bureau in exchange for fiat guarantees.
mircea_popescu: ben_vulpes pretty much every single major sucking of chumps change you will see from about q1 onwards will be and has been a psyops riding on top of a usg-backed institutional lending for shorts
mircea_popescu: as any successful fiction writer found out in short order.
mircea_popescu: ben_vulpes kinda what the usg needs, more loans of this type.
mircea_popescu: in things like permafrost you can at least put deep pillars in and pour on that
mircea_popescu: i'd prolly visit just for to shoot new trilema header.
mircea_popescu: i kinda am rooting for them to invade italy, force italians into sex slavery in morocco
mircea_popescu: allow me to rephrase : what if the state went the fuck away and stopped bothering people.
mircea_popescu: "Another is just a sorrowful question: What if these talented criminals had only used their talents for good?"
mircea_popescu: FabianB or anyone interested : .ws switch blew. the rest are fine. ws should be back within hours as replacement gets installed.
mircea_popescu: "the chinese triads" aren't a the in this context any more than "the chinese government" is a the. obviously there's going to be some sort of government, such as for instance the one in taiwan.
mircea_popescu: yeah well the problem with that is that it's more akin to saying that detroit or hollywood don't go away.
mircea_popescu: s well as the United States' $51 billion--annually--“War on Drugs.”
mircea_popescu: Blockbuster is gone. So are Lehman Brothers, Atari, Pan Am, Circuit City and countless others each year. Startups fail, too, with 80% going belly up within the first 18 months. But here’s something to consider in comparison: criminal syndicates don’t go out of business. The Chinese Triads have been around since the 17th century. For 25 years, Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel has outmaneuvered vicious competition at home a
mircea_popescu: that unless he's not running for his life from a coupla thugs owned by some bookie he owes to.
mircea_popescu: i'm sure the schmuck is sitting in a bar somewhere right now, all radiant of his greatness as he imagines it.
mircea_popescu: "his own data" being an arbitrary, uncontrolled and irreproducible cutout of the general flow.
mircea_popescu: (5% of your under bet, which we are assuming it is 100 EUR) unless it is HT where there is no danger. If you place bets for 2 EUR profit, you need now 50 arbs to recover the losses and i doubt that you will make any money.
mircea_popescu: me statistics of collected data from such bets could reveal more, but this 1/20 goal scoring assumption seems to be close to reality. Base on my own stats the probability of the goal is 1,8% , which means that 1,8 goals are scored in 100 bets. My net profit is smth like 65% of my total profit, the rest (35%) is the loss i have suffered from goals being scored in pending time. You must never place bets less than 5 EUR
mircea_popescu: Just don't place arbs which gives you less than 5% of your "under" stake. If you place 100 EUR on under at Europeans , it means that you must place only arbs which give you more than 5 EUR. This way, you need only 20 arbs to recover the losses from " 1 goal" for the 30 (might even less) sec you need after you first bet is accepted probably is less than 1/20. This rule of 5% profit from you under stake is reasonable. So
mircea_popescu: but you can't talk sense into these overgrown children with their delusions of independence.
mircea_popescu: if they just flipped burgers they'd make more per hour with less work,
mircea_popescu: why attract a horde of internet "entrepreneurs" trying to do a lot of high bandwidth nonsense in their retarded quest of getting five euros off you "risk free" ?
mircea_popescu: RagnarDanneskjol that's a fine example of why one doesn't really want to offr live betting.
mircea_popescu: trixisowned you mean Abū ʿAbd al-Lāh Muḥammad ibn ʿAbd al-Lāh l-Lawātī ṭ-Ṭanǧī ibn Baṭūṭah
mircea_popescu: FabianB maybe make it so if one fails it tries the next ?
mircea_popescu: um no, don't do that, because well... suppose these two crap out. what'll people do then without the other two listed ?
mircea_popescu: The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.