289400+ entries in 1.889s
peterl: ThickAsThieves this video is really bad quality. Couldn't you at least get
a tripod?
BingoBoingo: b0n1: That 5 BTC no bet, probably wasn't
a hedge. Sometimes
a BitBet bet is just
a bet and not
a fancy hedge.
mircea_popescu: b0n1 mike_c was discussing
a 50+ btc bet earlier. what's your definition of reasonable ?
b0n1: the only reasonable amount in there so far is
a 5 btc on no and even the owner of this bet believes it is
a yes since it was
a hedge
mircea_popescu: it's
a great thing all these "companies" don't actually have professional cfos involved so nobody realises just how much damage
a faux pas of the sort does to their prospects
mircea_popescu: b0n1 well it's new, prolly nobody with
a balance saw it yet.
b0n1: i mean
a reasonable big amount on yes
mircea_popescu: i don't think
a discussion of the cluelessness of the population can in principle be made into
a comparison of betting systems.
b0n1: well mircea_popescu
a lot of money make
a living with that all day on betfair ...
b0n1: the quotes for bet/lay of an event
A are not "entangled" with bet/lay of an event B so to say
b0n1: mircea_popescu, what i mean with arbing is for example in
a binary bet where you can bet on event
A or B you could lay both and make profit ( arbitrage opportunity)
mircea_popescu: in general it's
a daunting proposition, because it's so unstructured.
mike_c: ok. i agree with you (and therefore will place
a bet). let me find
a better example or understand that I was wrong.
mircea_popescu: seems to me it's actually pricing the thing pretty darned accurately. if you look at options they're
a worse deal.
nubbins`: okay, i'm going to step outside for
a few moments
mircea_popescu: i don't see we have such
a shortage of events that we need to make them last by creating dozens of bets out of the same one thing
b0n1: yes, but you can for example lay b and bet
a and can do arbitrage with that
mircea_popescu: sure, the event can be repackaged every which way, but fundamentally it's either
a or b.
b0n1: for example in
a football game when you can bet on team
A or team B or draw and also lay every bet, too
mircea_popescu:
a back/lay bet you can only cancel if someone is willing to unwind you.
mircea_popescu:
a mutual bet you can always cancel by making an appropiate bet on the other side.
nubbins`: "The last time I had seen grown humans throw up like stressed out cats we were in
a ditch and being fired upon."
mircea_popescu: okay. do you see how that can be used to shave
a significant edge off the naive players ?
mircea_popescu: mkay. this is
a problem of maffs. let's try something else :
mircea_popescu: do you grok the part of how back/lay is
a subset of mutual betting ?
BingoBoingo: Thanks mircea_popescu they seem like they can't even throw
a proper labcoin style AMAZINGCOMPANY shitstorm. This might be more boring than I anticipated.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves strangely enough for
a "dutch central bank" rep, nobody heard of this ebe fellow.
blastbob: i think one of the other guys at coinbase said in
a video that they wasnt going to
nubbins`: mastercoin is
a pretty good chuckle
nubbins`: full of pictures of wizards, fantasy landscapes, and
a small section of women's faces on the very last page, with cut-out photos of himself glued on top
BingoBoingo: Oh, the Ryan Dickherber character got
a mention here. At some point he contacted me in response to some local meetup I half assedly tried to organize. He seemed rather boring so I didn't bother. Pretty sure it is actually his name though.
pankkake: I like those guys, they make me think I have
a normal sexuality
nubbins`: the guy who drew that has
a 9yo daughter
ThickAsThieves: what if Gavin is wrong one day? or makes
a big mistake?
mircea_popescu: you pay X to join, you get
a percentage of all subsequent joins equal to your "trust rating"
mircea_popescu: nubbins` something like that might actually work.
a ponzi forum
nubbins`: i'm going to start
a forum called bitcoinchat.org
ThickAsThieves: he was even reasonable when i asked him if he felt this whole decntralization of everything trend was
a worthy pursuit
pankkake: so bitcoin central sends me
a mail to say I'm refused again, does not tell me why, and the website says everything is still under review
ThickAsThieves:
a fun moment was when Mike Hearn told the Mastercoin guy his project was shit
ThickAsThieves: after seeing Roger Ver in person I no longer think someone had
a gun to his head in that Gox-is-fine video, he's just that uncomfortable acting all the time
pankkake: conslutant is
a pretty much what consultants should actually call themselves
ozbot: Bitcoin Press Center |
A global media center for bitcoin
nubbins`: so i received
a judgment in the mail today, regarding the claim we filed against our previous tenants
ozbot: Bitcoin Press Center |
A global media center for bitcoin
mircea_popescu:
A: No, the moderators only check accuracy. They are neither qualified nor authorized to make press relations decisions
mircea_popescu: "bitch, i'm not saying you're
a whore, i'm saying you look worse than plenty of whores and this is all your doing."
mircea_popescu: "If you are
a representative of Solar Wind Mining reading this, be aware that I’m not calling you
a scam. I’m saying that you potentially legitimate venture doesn’t even look as good as some scams, and this situation was entirely preventable."
ThickAsThieves: apparently being called usagi is
a pretty damning insult
dexX7: though smidge has
a few social profiles which look legit
nubbins`: does he at least have
a girlfriend who is
a boat captain or something?
mircea_popescu: smidge is this irl accountant guy with
a jet fighter pilot wife and two kids, who used to broker for mpex and do
a bunch of other venture stuff
nubbins`: wasn't smidge traded on havelock for like
a day and
a half or something?
nubbins`: i've got
a bunch that i won't be roasting any time soon
mircea_popescu: and they DO include the extra call to release which is basically all
a loc provides
mircea_popescu: anyway, here's
a funny thing re locs that'll probably make anyone jealous.
mircea_popescu: "NO, IT'S
A BAD GOD. THIS IS NOT GOOD... NO BITBOOK REPS, NO NOTHING RIGHT NOW. THE SITE JUST STRAIGHT UP DISAPPEARED. AND I WAS LITERALLY JUST WITHDRAWING THE BITCOINS INTO CASH. I HAVE LIKE $0 I NEEDED THAT MONEY SO BADLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND."
mircea_popescu: You are seeing this message because this HTTPS site requires
a 'Referer header' to be sent by your Web browser, but none was sent.
mircea_popescu: well yes.
a loc is basically
a large industrial check.
mircea_popescu: or i can just send them 50k btc within
a half hour and be done with it.
mircea_popescu: currently if i wish to pay
a supplier I must apply to
a bank, which may within
a month or so issue me
a loc, provided
mircea_popescu: i used sdrs as an example of
a currency item that can never be bought or held by joe scjhmoe.
mircea_popescu: if the yen is 11.6675% of
a sdr and 11.6672% of the world economy people will short one and long the other somehow. this slowly whittles your holdings towards them.
mircea_popescu: as
a result you'll constantly be arbitraged out of value.
mircea_popescu: moreover, as the proportion is fixed, they have all the disadvantages of
a bimetallic system, which are marked.
mircea_popescu: sdrs are backed by
a basket of other fiats. it's not that much backing in the first place.
ThickAsThieves: "China has also suggested the creation of
a substitution account to allow exchange of US dollars into SDRs.[Williamson 3] When substitution was proposed before, in 1978, the US appeared reluctant to allow such
a mechanism to become operational.[Williamson 4] It is likely just as reluctant today."
mircea_popescu: not really. afaik they were most proeminent due to
a sudden liquidity systemic shock caused by the arab hike
ThickAsThieves: "The SDR comes to prominence when the US dollar is weak or otherwise unsuitable to be
a foreign exchange reserve asset. This usually manifests itself as an allocation of SDRs to IMF member countries. Distrust of the US dollar is not the only stated reason allocations have been made, however." says wiki
mircea_popescu: now, sdrs are an attempt to implement
a similar mechanism in international trade,
ThickAsThieves: and i want more arguments as to why bitcoins ultimate use isnt necessarily as
a currency to buy coffee
mircea_popescu: special drawing rights are
a gold substitute, basically, since nixon.
pankkake: not even
a free anal cavity search?