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mircea_popescu: see kakobrekla, this is how cumstomer support is done, not the stuff you do!
mircea_popescu: Nick___ seems a tx failed to propagate properly. sorry for the inconvenience. will be rebroadcast presently. thanks for reporting.
mircea_popescu: that 50 btc diff bet ended up 800 btc on the winning side two weeks out.
mircea_popescu: mike_c that's not even half of it. even 1k on either side wil probably draw reaction. i'd guess if you drop 5k on a side you'll get more volume on the other just on general principle.
mircea_popescu: except the problem is i don't see any large march brk puts hgaving happened this week
mircea_popescu: if he wrote brk-a puts and he somehoiw has a default bitcoin put by some reason (say, the reason being large holdings) then this is a +ev move
mircea_popescu: actually, maybe he's shorting brk-a and looking for cheap insurance.
mircea_popescu: i suppose the statement would be "someone who's short the "up up up!" "
mircea_popescu: yeah he can be somewhat short bitcoin but not THAT short
mircea_popescu: (also anyone who reads the logs, which by now is tens of thousands of people)
mircea_popescu: in finance there's no constants. just vairables with the appearance of constance in context.
mircea_popescu: mike_c im not even sure what it's short on. but prolly bitcoin more than berkshire atm.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform it does, but im not giving it. let the wise have an easter egg.
mircea_popescu: this is well revolutionary, im noteven sure the chinese have access to such performance.
mircea_popescu: (i don't mean where else in bitcoin. i mean, where else in vegas)
mircea_popescu: where else can you drop 50k on a side and not appreciably swing the odds.
mircea_popescu: the beauty of liquidity : bitbet can actually cover any bet at the stated odds well up to 100 BTC.
mircea_popescu: mats_cd03 she's reasonably hot twist, for as long as that lasts.
mircea_popescu: mike_c what if you ran the bitcoin chamber of commerce ?
mircea_popescu: chetty moreover, old folks are in a better position to understand the futility of change anyway.
mircea_popescu: but is condemned to forever keep on seeing it all again
mircea_popescu: well that's the problem with the antichrist, not only has it seen it all
mircea_popescu: i fully expect to see old people hanged for the fault of being old in my lifetime.
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones normally society has these natural mechanisms to let pressure get out, all involving violence. the english speaking world has been uncannily successful at pluging all of them.
mircea_popescu: the advantage of multi layered security : you get to know what the would-be attacker knows and what he doesn't.
mircea_popescu: (no, i didn't change it. i don't change passwords when a third party says so. i change them when i change them.)
mircea_popescu: turns out this is what happens when someone tries to squat on your name just before you show up
mircea_popescu: that was fucking trippy. so i start irc client, it goes to login,
mircea_popescu: was a very similar affair, led by similarly inept cvasi-religious figures without an actual religion. ended up hanging an innocent young english sailor for no particular reason.
mircea_popescu: just curios, anyone remember the scottish attempt to colonise the new world ?
mircea_popescu: it's incredible just how homologously stupid these derps are.
mircea_popescu: And so I decided that since I was already roped into this by association I had two choices. To stop promoting GGC and go public with the reasons why I was uncomfortable or to continue to promote it and hope it works. I chose the latter and very quickly money began flooding into the project and I began to think that maybe this would all work out and maybe Ken really knew what he was doing."
mircea_popescu: done and that GGC would have no problem pre-selling the lots to pay for the land. He also told me that he had negotiated a deal in such a way that even if the full payment can't be made in time that we could extend it.
mircea_popescu: "Since I had already brought in thousands of leads to GGC throughout 2012 and the start of 2013 and Ken had begun to market this new property that GGC didn't even own I was very distressed. However, at the same time, the amount of interest was staggering. I knew there would be demand for a project like this but I was amazed how much interest there was. Ken again told me that this is just how these type of deals are
mircea_popescu: basically the dollar vigilante thing is going to be prosecuted for fraud next year.
mircea_popescu: Also, he had hired some sales staff (all TDV readers) and all of them were emailing me telling me that what Ken had just done was crazy and he was trying to get them to sell a property that wasn't owned by GGC without any real details even about the property, how much water or water rights it had and whether it could be rezoned! They all said they were going to quit but Ken had begun to move forward and market it."
mircea_popescu: "A few months passed and there wasn't too much developing when I got an email from someone (not even Ken) in June of 2013 that he had just committed to purchase a property with secure water rights near the initial property for over $6 million... and it had to be paid in full within three months!
mircea_popescu: ingenuity, yes. they're about as ingenue as a 9 year old girl.
mircea_popescu: fucking children. where are ye buffett with your "the incredible productive assets and unlimited human ingenuity existing in America". show them to me baby. what productive ?
mircea_popescu: it'd have been "unbusinesslike", because that's "totally normal" in "business".
mircea_popescu: now he's spilling the beans. he couldn't do this post that same day.
mircea_popescu: and the bonus being that for all this time HE LIED ABOUT IT
mircea_popescu: Ken told me it wouldn't be a problem and he'd get it fixed. And, while I had already begun to market the property I was generally okay in knowing that the four founders had bought a large piece of property that, at worst, they could live on and/or resell and no one would get very hurt from this mistake.
mircea_popescu: Very quickly after the purchase of the property I received an email from Ken that there was a lot of errors and the property not only can't be rezoned for 3,000 lots but only for 12! And, it had no water rights for much more than 12 livable units!
mircea_popescu: 50-50s ar for the qualified people in question. there is NOTHING, nothing at all, no benefit, zero, zilch, gulch for the guys with the "idea" or the "vision". fuck your vision and get lost, it's not worth a cupful of piss.
mircea_popescu: e plan was for us to bring in qualified people to help us develop the property as I brought in the marketing interest for lot purchasers. "
mircea_popescu: "I was assured that the property could be rezoned (at least somewhat) and that it had water rights and I returned to North America and Ken and I agreed we would be 50/50 partners on the deal (with a certain percentage for Cobin and his partner and for the founding investors) and I told Ken that I had no time nor qualification to operate or manage a real estate development so he would be the Managing Partner and that th
mircea_popescu: listen kids. a) this isn't how any business works ; b) "totally normal" is no argument ; c) don't be this loser. don't be the 9 yo kid telling the tall tale about how you "nearly" got into a fist fight with the bad boys that ruined your sunday clothes.
mircea_popescu: Excited by the property and the potential I decided to trust Ken on his knowledge of how to do real estate deals and we then raised the money with four key investors who we still to this day call "the founders". All were TDV readers and they were excited about the potential.
mircea_popescu: By that point I had had enough. "I don't do business that way," I said, and nearly got into a fist fight with Ken Johnson over it. However he and the others all assured me that this was "totally normal" in the real estate business to do... and over time they, and especially Ken, talked me into doing it. Ken told me, "this is how the real estate business works."
mircea_popescu: Everyone at the table told me that it was a "sure thing" which I found preposterous. But then, Cobin, his partner and Ken started talking about putting a down payment on the property with a "rubber cheque". They were essentially saying that we would give the owner a cheque that had no real money backing it and then raise the funds to buy the property.
mircea_popescu: My first thought was that it would be terrible to turn this serene, perfect mountain valley into a complete suburban-like area. And my second thought was, "3,000 lots? Doug Casey has been operating La Estancia de Cafayate for more than five years and hasn't even sold 200 lots!"
mircea_popescu: We sat down for dinner in Santiago with John Cobin and his partner who had brought us the property and that's when things started to get strange. Cobin and his partner had some bizarre plan to zone a few thousand acres with 3,000 lots including golf courses, hotels and all manner of grandiose things. They actually had a business plan that went into the billions of dollars in revenue.
mircea_popescu: except instead of addressing the lordship, they swindle innocent old people, the traditional victims of psychopathic piano salesmen.
mircea_popescu: "I first wrote about La Estancia as being "Galt's Gulch" in 2011. I went on to talk throughout much of early 2012 about how exciting I found the concept and how I would like to do one myself." fucking preachers without a church, teenaged boys trapped in sagging old bodies trying to get patrons to carve them a parish.