log☇︎
280500+ entries in 1.635s
Chaang-Noi: <mjrIII> but i honestly don't understand why it is valued so low this i 100% agree with, you really do not understand... :(
Chaang-Noi: i bet tiberslav does more in life to be honest.
mjrIII: but i honestly don't understand why it is valued so low
mjrIII: i'm not advising people to buy
Chaang-Noi: nothig you can do to trick me into thinking s,dice is a smart buy, but honestly i hope you invest all you have, and even borrow to invest in it
mjrIII: and yes, i know about luck
mjrIII: that is the most ridiculous number i've ever seen in my life for a profit margin
Chaang-Noi: mjrIII> Chaang-Noi: anyway, profit of 5k bitcoins last month pretty much says everything i need to say about s.dice as a company what the loss the month before? is that what it says, lulz do you know luck, you are just an ignorant troll. be my guest, sell your ouse and buy s.dice, its best evar
mjrIII: mpex i'm sure also has done that
mjrIII: and mt gox makes more than that i'd bet
mjrIII: i'm sure glbse must have to
mjrIII: probably count them on both hands i am guessing (ones that are still around at least)
mjrIII: jurov: he def does i think
jurov: as i said, erik is trustworthy but he seems to consider sdice a liability
mjrIII: and I think just-dice is great
mjrIII: Chaang-Noi: anyway, profit of 5k bitcoins last month pretty much says everything i need to say about s.dice as a company
mjrIII: lol that was a conversation i was having with him lol
mjrIII: i would say the relative "risk-free" people in btc are you, mp, erik, kako
mjrIII: jurov: and what did you mean about the people, i trust erik more than almost everyone in btc
mjrIII: that is a positive number i believe
Namworld: I hold equity in more than one dice websites.
mjrIII: and no, i hold no equities at the moment
mjrIII: i would argue that more people learn about s.dice because they use blockchain than because they stumbled upon the site
mjrIII: i disagree
mjrIII: i have
mjrIII: i can't look at the list of addresses on that website
Chaang-Noi: <mjrIII> and i think erik is pretty well trusted he was, but then he fucked over the people who gave him money and did not do what he said
mjrIII: pankkake: well, as an investory, whichever is more appealing to the consumer is the one i'd rather invest in
mjrIII: i do see the transactions for s.dice
pankkake: no, but I doubt you can see the in/outs, and it would not provide any useful info
mjrIII: and i think erik is pretty well trusted
mjrIII: i thought just-dice gave you both options
mjrIII: that remains to be seen, i am confident in mpex
mjrIII: Chaang-Noi: i think of it as a place for businesses to sell equity in exchange for capital
CheckDavid: good, I didn't =_=
Chaang-Noi: i did the same shit when i was 12, we made up companies and traded stock
CheckDavid: I see.
Chaang-Noi: its like that econ class i had in 6th grade
CheckDavid: OH I see now
mjrIII: so i could draw analogies for you
mjrIII: i was just curious
CheckDavid: Maybe I would
mjrIII: or should i say broadcast might be more accurate
mjrIII: if i told you it was a print from nasdaq
mjrIII: the terms of its creator i suppose
mjrIII: maybe i should reverse them so i can know with certainty the collateral on the mpex side
mjrIII: then i collect hopefully .15 bitcoins as premium...
mjrIII: but i basically have to put up .2 bitcoins as collateral to hedge one bitcoin
mjrIII: i am refactoring and debugging the old site and adding it into the new site slowly
mjrIII: that is what I eventually hope to have
jurov: well, if you can insure MPBPT with reasonable terms.. i'm all in
mjrIII: as i am pretty sure i can do futures with some businesses
mjrIII: though the actual place i get a futures contract from is not relevant
mjrIII: i'm looking at icbit.se
mjrIII: and as far as i can see, no interest calculated on the futures
Chaang-Noi: btw how do i get to that gold section again?
Chaang-Noi: cuz right after i signed up it was like this
Chaang-Noi: i paid for a eyars worth of gold in btc already
Chaang-Noi: one was in btc area, not i try ltc are and im doing too much
Chaang-Noi: i have like 2 posts
Chaang-Noi: so anyone use reddit? im new, but i cant post more than once in 10 mins, and im even gold level, wtf?
jurov: i did some rough estimates while trying to prop up MPBPT, and this haas been a problem, too
mjrIII: so if you wrote options while hedging you should be able to offer more efficient pricing i would imagine
mjrIII: again, these are just using standardized finance tools, which i am not sure how well they apply
mjrIII: jurov: i think that is your random walk
mjrIII: YTD i think daily historical vol is 120
mjrIII: see what i arrive at, brb
mjrIII: i'm gonna redo the numbers for every day in the last year
mjrIII: not sure if i wrote that correctly
mjrIII: and i arrive at vol by doing the following
mjrIII: i think
mjrIII: yes, and for the month where the price tripled, that is where i calculated volatility of 50
mjrIII: i am basically trying to show returns for any given price between 40 and 130
mjrIII: well, that is what i am trying to do, in a way
jurov: i'd rather try to consider btcusd as random walk and determine in which range it's going to stay with, 95% chance during the 1 or 2 months
mjrIII: there should be an arbitrage opportunity, i think that is self-evident, no?
mjrIII: but if i do this as a thought experiment
mjrIII: i haven't done the math perfectly
mjrIII: and to calculate that, i took the "returns" on btc on options expiration days for the last 12 months
mjrIII: if you look at daily volatility, its around 11 i think
mjrIII: meaning if i opened an options contract on the beginning of the month, the change would never have been sharper than volatility of 50 (that was the highest number i could make the spreadsheet give me)
mjrIII: by looking at historical data i can calculate the daily, monthly, yearly, etc volatilty
jurov: oh yes, i somehow thought vol=volume and went derp
mjrIII: so, i really don't know, all i know is that the implied vol of those prices is 6 times higher than the greatest vol i've observed in any given month
mjrIII: that is what i mean by arbitraging the difference between the future and the option
mjrIII: but the combined premium of that number of puts should more than offset any losses from the future contract if i can charge .15 btc per put
mjrIII: so i should be able to sell some number of puts (can't figure out how many without actually trying)
mjrIII: remember that i only put up one bitcoin for the future contract, though that allows me to hedge 10 bitcoins prices
mjrIII: if prices rise, i still collect premium, and futures gives me less btc, though same USD
mjrIII: so now, due to the put, i lose money when price falls
mjrIII: so i write a call
mjrIII: since with the future, i profit when price falls, i should be able to take risk in that direction
mjrIII: BUT if the price rises, i still have $680 dollars
mjrIII: which means that my profit occurs if the price falls, i can sell at the higher price of my contract
mjrIII: so, i am effectively guaranteed to receive $68 per bitcoin at months end, up to 10 bitcoins
mjrIII: anyway, if i can for example, sell 10 btc at $68 at months end, and only have to put up 1 btc as collateral
mjrIII: but let's say i am more comfortable with the cp risk than i am with the fx risk
mjrIII: i can find one person, and craft my own forward contract between me and him
mjrIII: so i can build in profits in either direction to offset losses by the options
jurov: well, i did not understand how... you want to hedge by selling futures?