log☇︎
278700+ entries in 2.092s
mircea_popescu: we need a better format.
asciilifeform: doc in question is a scan
ll: open it in a vm
mike_c: how could i possibly open a pdf from someone i know could hack the shit out of me if he wanted to?
asciilifeform: (a bit of a hog, scanned it personally from the original print)
asciilifeform: how about something real for a twist.
mike_c: "A Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation"
asciilifeform: no one has yet invented a means whereby unknowns can sell secrets to unknowns.
asciilifeform: it's a standard 'trading in the desert' situation
asciilifeform: Vexual: the arena in question may not be a literal one; the original issue was how to prove that the target actually contains a prize.
asciilifeform: there's no possible substitute for arena reputation, though; with the possible exception of holding the contest inside a faraday cage, with the target machine signing messages with its addr key on demand.
mircea_popescu: i guess roua's accident recently left a hole.
mircea_popescu: this is a point
asciilifeform: otherwise nobody cares to part with an 0day for a prize that may or may not exist.
asciilifeform: he was offering 'get a root account, and see if you can get past my fancy memory partitioner plugin'
Vexual: you'll end up with a flat line
asciilifeform: next thing we know, bitbet gets a scripting language, and we're playing 'Core Wars.'
mircea_popescu: not like i won't let you make a bet that expires early or that ends with w/e weight etc
ThickAsThieves: what if you just offer 4 curve pictures when making bet, maybe in a Edit Curve button, one tapers early, one late, one linear, one like Franks Weather
mike_c: which is still only a piece of it. because if someone drops that 1k bet down on my side my odds still tank
mike_c: mircea_popescu: yeah, i was thinking about that. but its not like its not a cloudy soup right now.
mircea_popescu: jurov looks too un-sine to be a sine imo.
mircea_popescu: you basically now live in a cloudy soup of "i can't fucking know wjhat i'm betting on"
mircea_popescu: mike_c one major problem of the not-time approach is, what if right before your 10btc bet makes it, someone puts in a 1k btc bet.
mircea_popescu: "any woman would be better than the girl next door. except, you know, a really annoying pornstar. or a quadriplegic. or a butch lesbian."
Vexual: add some function to the diff estimate to make a sexy curve
Vexual: a curve from the difficulty estimate?
mircea_popescu: jurov what's that curve even, its not a sine section.
ThickAsThieves: what if it's a fixed amount of weight that can be given, then the 'price' of weight is determined by the amount of coins bet prior.
ThickAsThieves: if it's not on the agenda for the gov by a certain date
mircea_popescu: Vexual it's where people seem to think they do a lot better at predicting outcomes as time goes by
mircea_popescu: yes, but his more is a function of the total bet.
mircea_popescu: mike_c how is your idea different from just splitting the pool according to a polynomial (bet sum) ?
mike_c: only marginally. but if you auction off weight, it changes the dynamic a lot
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves basically he proposes to not use a time function, but a bet function
mircea_popescu: jurov a nonlinear curve would, of course, have to somehow be communicated to the bettors, which may take 16 months of scam accusations in the btctalk.
mike_c: it puts something of a cap on the bets, but whatever.
mircea_popescu: jurov just do a historical average of all science ?
mircea_popescu: what has materially changed in that bet since a month ago ?
mircea_popescu: cause they closed last week and resolve in a month ?
mircea_popescu: does this guy have a point ?
mircea_popescu: "Even with weights, allowing a diff bet to be open to bets till so close to the resolution date, enormously reduces the incentive to bet until it is an obvious call and thus limits the size of the bets to a few eager early beters plus roughly double the late skimmers. No money in between an thus smaller overall rollers."
mircea_popescu: xmas delivery is a thing.
mircea_popescu: ok so basically they mostly delivered an avalon clone on a 9 month schedule, and announced a 28nm process on a 3 month schedule late sept.
ThickAsThieves: sounds a lot like ActM
mircea_popescu: so basically this is a 25% actual rigs (from cointerra) and 75% vaporware.
Duffer1: a bunch of spam mail to my inbox but that's about it
the20year2: It's not like you can just find a datacenter and say "hey let me put my stuff in there"
ThickAsThieves: it's a tsunami of dumb tho
Duffer1: it's not intended to benefit the investor so i'd call that a scam, maybe not "theft"
mircea_popescu: it's not a business.
the20year2: Who cares if they get called a scam? They've already pocketed 2.8m in investments
mircea_popescu: the20year2 and then you list the crap and get called a scam and don't understand why.
Duffer1: worse than a pmb
the20year2: And it's a sweet deal for the mining company......the cost to provide those GH goes down every day
mircea_popescu: "CryptX has a contract with Cointerra"
davout: large amount of 'a'
sois: i sent him a proposal that would automate the process, i'm guessing he is just using excel and manually doing it which must be a hassle
pankkake: ozbot is being a smart ass
gribble: Error: I am not seeing this user on IRC. If you want information about a registered gpg user, try the 'gpg info' command instead.
gribble: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sharking | To pull a girl's panties down in public, usually when she's wearing a short skirt. Very popular in Japan.
mike_c: tell him your code is C++, and therefore can't be a scam.
kakobreklaa: fun fact, clark moody refused to advertise my service cause it was suspeicious of it being scammy. he does have a mcxnow banner on site, still.
benkay: i'm a near total neophyte to the execution of code and the things upon which they execute, so your grumpy old man attitude is fascinating to keep in mind while coming up to speed on the rest of the stack.
benkay: asciilifeform: i dreamt about a dataflow soup (using biocomputing elements) last night and then read your Alert Reader post this morning.
mircea_popescu: wow f-secure, what a blast from the past
mike_c: but now you get to enjoy the anticipation of being a billionaire again.
mircea_popescu: aw shucks, not a billionaire again ?
diametric: ahh also btc china has enacted a trading fee now
pankkake: is there a non-panic mode in bitcoin?
mike_c: buffet says this is a good time to be greedy
mircea_popescu: lol bitcoincharts is a little behind the blox
jurov: TAT you made out on idiffs like a pig, don't cry now :D
mircea_popescu: i'm not a fucking exchange. i gotta pick one.
mircea_popescu: i tell you euro will turn worthless in the next ten years a degree of magnitude more often than btc will
mircea_popescu: and moreover he has the means to go delta neutral as he has ready access to a spot market.
mircea_popescu: it's a possibility.
mircea_popescu: still, on one hand it's a much better liquidation event than either the best or the most recent non-mpex liquidation event, on one hand
lyspooner: you couldn't allow a second market-maker
mircea_popescu: admittedly there could still exist an edge case where the mm splits and the holders book a loss
lyspooner: imagine i buy 100 contracts while there is a single market-maker, davout, because i am comfortable with his terms of delivery
mircea_popescu: we do things right for a reason.
mircea_popescu: (a) The Market Maker will immediately notify the Exchange should observance of the terms of this contract become impossible for the future. Should such notification be received, the Exchange will distribute the Market Maker's deposit to contract holders, in proportion of the number of contracts they hold but not in excess of the implied spot value rounded to the lowest 10. This distribution will constitute the sole rem
mircea_popescu: (c) The Market Maker will make a deposit of BTC with the Exchange, on the basis of which the Exchange will create a number of X.EUR contracts in the Market Maker's account, by the criterion of the weighted spot price rounded to the lowest 10.
lyspooner: how will a buyer know whome he is facing ?
lyspooner: because delivery specifications are made by a single-market maker, this contract will always guaranteed to have a single seller?
mircea_popescu: which obviously is not a future.
mircea_popescu: anyway, the phys delivery is mostly there to keep things honest. unlike all the bucket shops running a soft-settled only "future"
mircea_popescu: lyspooner afaik there's a 5 eur charge per delivery.
mircea_popescu: this obviously being a mm feature, don't expect it to happen for 7.8 eur or some bs
mircea_popescu: Apocalyptic you getting a lot of that in -otc these days huh ? i see Azelphur negging people, that's a rarity.
gribble: Error: "other" is not a valid command.
Apocalyptic: twizt, just a random douche hating
nubbins`: ha ha, now it's a game
asciilifeform: re: urbit: anyone curious about my answer to the quandary 'so, how the hell /should/ we build a computer' is invited to read:
nubbins`: third time's a charm?
nubbins`: hm, that's a good point
BingoBoingo: I lose a bunch IRL though. And back when CoinChat was a thing I lost quite a few games there
BingoBoingo: For the night. Career I believe it is 4-0, someone else played a game at a point
nubbins`: they have this vodka that comes in a glass skull here