265800+ entries in 1.803s
MisterE: I wish someone would do
a docu on reddit
MisterE: reddit was
a cliquey thing before it blew up and most were techies / libertarians
cads: just
a tiny parameter tweak in the voting mechanism
cads: "we have the power to determine when trolls swarm
a topic"
cads:
a reddit video news channel?
cads: jurov: yeah, they need
a business plan because right now they just give
a fun free news platform for all
cads: "we spent half
a mill on consultants alone so far and nothing. Time to bring in the leeches"
cads: jurov, mp? Duffer1, you're
a reddit fan?
cads: so they eat about
a million of each year and there's really no way I can see for them to make money
cads: when they were spun out in 2011 they started with 20 mil, and they have been operating the popular online social forum and news syndication site with
a "very lean staff"
cads: can you guys suggest
a business model for reddit that would actually make money?
cads: hmm,
a year ago reddit raised
a million dollars an
a 400 million dolar valuation
mircea_popescu: the girl you love today has but
a cunt just like your ex
cads: blah I hate how easy hard math turns out to be after
a couple years of study. That makes you feel like you were an idiot 2 years ago.
Mats_cd03: i wouldnt mind running
a node if i knew what i was contributing
mircea_popescu: if one day btc-e pulls
a vircurex and lists itself as an asset, and pumps the price like they do
mircea_popescu: " make billions of market captilization / acquisitions, and all they do is hold onto content that users have put there willingly under
a license that gives"
mircea_popescu: you have
a large number of mistaken assumptions baked in, tho.
cads: not
a lot, but enough to be worth studying
mircea_popescu: cads so basically you'd like this to be worth
a lot is what igather.
cads: to them they don't even notice if I get slashdotted. For me it might take me out of business for
a day.
cads: if I was making
a revenue stream the latter sounds ideal, but of course I understand that my revenue stream would be even _bigger_ if I syndicate my content with youtube.
jurov: cads, where would you put
a video you suspect may get mildly popular? on your adsl? pay for
a webhosting?
cads: So these billion dollar valuations are all due to the fact that people are too stupid to run distributed media channels or protest
a bad contract clause and are willing to sit through advertisements.
cads: The big social media aggregators - facebook, twitter, youtube, tumblr, basically make billions of market captilization / acquisitions, and all they do is hold onto content that users have put there willingly under
a license that gives the corporation full rights to the content until it is deleted by the user.
cads: I mean, youtube was acquired in 06 for 1.5 $bn of google stock. In the mean time google has grown to from 400 to 1200
a share. Suppose youtube grew proportionally with that and it's valued at $6bn. However youtube has grown far beyond what most people imagined.
A 2012 boast from google values youtube at around $56bn.
jurov: and wants to be
a president
jurov: hahaha what wikipedia has to say: According to Margaret Loesch, CEO of The Hub, revisiting properties that had worked in the past was an important programming decision, influenced to an extent by the opinions of the network's programming executives,
a number of whom were once fans of such shows.
mircea_popescu: so the owner made like 400mn total, and they sell
a lot of crap other than this stale meme.
cads: Well like pageviews -> $s it's hard to quantify. It's
a non-monetized time waste with leeches sucking at each juncture, so I'm not sure where to begin speculating on the profit
jurov: i do remember them, it was
a biggie for some time. fortunately i was not allowed much tv then
cads: _maybe_ it's
a sort of childhood brand recognition
cads: I've got another friend and she has
a brother that has an actual pony stamp tattoo.
cads: Namworld: one of my exes has
a 17 year old brother who is
a brony. Kid is
a robotics genius, and
a ... pony genius.
mircea_popescu: which is how i got to hear about it, the anthropologists keeping track of the decay of the us cultural space noticed that it's not just that holywood can't make
a film that's not either
a very bad socialist tract or else
a drug chain
cads: My little pony was
a failing toy brand that was rebranded by the hasbro corporation into
a moe cartoon series called My little pony: friendship is magic. It was aimed at little girls but featured good writing and character design and pretty soon had
a huge fan base of "bronies"
cads: mircea_popescu: so 'moe' is
a style of anime synonymous with "cute" and "budding" charachters that you want to lovingly "protect", and it's very popular with young girl audiences and middle aged male audiences.
Namworld: Hmm... BTC.sx has
a clear lack of capital.
cads: to see
a man fawning over cute animated My Little Ponies
cads: In the chat room (which is
a regular IRC chatroom operated by twitch.tv) the broadcaster placed
a bot that would interpret messages from players as key presses: players may register to the site to go on the chat and type "up" "down", "
a", "b", etc.
cads: It's
a completely absurd social experiment. Someone created
a video feed of
a pokemon game, and fed it to
a well known distributor of live videogame video feeds, Twitch.tv.
cads: today it reached
a new high - 75 thousand people mashing buttons desperately trying to get past what would normally take two minutes for
a single player.
cads: Wow these poor pokemon bastards have been stuck in
a maze for 24 hours now.
mircea_popescu: (which again is proven by the diff curve, with its attendant problems, and by the fiat/btc prices, and by
a thousand other glimmers)
mircea_popescu: the value of the only asset which yields
a + is pretty muchj... infinite
mircea_popescu: and obviously, "dude it's
a scam through and through" is
a third.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids there's no compelling reason to believe the price of mpoe isn't derived from its value as
a currency.
mircea_popescu: wherein
a number of large players keep pushing back and forth holdings of s.mpoe as tokens of credit
mircea_popescu: such as for instance as roughly the equivalent of
a discounted us fed
mike_c: the havelock market implies
a lot of things
mircea_popescu: another : maybe s.mpoe is becoming monetized in
a particular manner,
ThickAsThieves: i think it's like
a currency rate burdened by indeterminable inflation rates
mike_c: herbi, have you done
a dcf on mpoe?
Bugpowdurr: Well... my little crafty experiment is
a fail.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i am totally fine with valuing MPOE on
a book value basis. so what is the current P/B multiple?
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: i thought the article ...i just wrote...makes it pretty clear? if youre buying one asset based on the 6 month historicals, then the future has to play out in
a certain way for your investment to not underperform.
mike_c: hm, try this. would s.mpoe returning 1%
a year be the same to you as 7C returning 1%
a year?
mike_c: well you are
a quant :) (don't get mad now)
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: if im dependent on the ask price at end of life then its
a speculation not investment
Bugpowdurr: Also damn, I'm on
a network that doesn't let me send BTC.
Bugpowdurr: I was thinking that someone could deduce whether the whale short the puts had been stopped out by MKOPT / EXERCISE
a number of options and see how many were assigned to him vs. other.
Bugpowdurr: "Bear in mind that whenever someone exercises options of your symbol you will be allocated
a portion of the executions corresponding to your total share of created contracts for that symbol. Thus if you create 100 O.BTCUSD.C50T and someone else creates 150, in case there's an execution of 50 contracts you will be assigned 20 of those."
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: if the price i pay today for MPOE is more than the total amount of gains that MPOE can bring in over say, 10 years, then it is
a bad investment for people looking for assets to invest in for 10 years
Bugpowdurr: And in theory,
a 3rd party could force exercise of someone else's short position by mkopt -> exercise chains?
Bugpowdurr: If there are 3000 contracts of an option outstanding sold to bot, then another user creates another 500 contracts, and then exercises them without selling them, does that force the exercise of
a fraction of the previously sold options?
mircea_popescu: in short... this is
a complete nonsensical mess of wires sticking out.
mircea_popescu: no other business in the history of business sits in this position of "can only turn
a profit"
mircea_popescu: mpoe is so structured shareholders can only make
a gain. thus Y > 0, X =0.
mircea_popescu:
a pmb will reward X% per interval, and decay Y% per interval, with Y > X for all cases.
mircea_popescu: but i suspect this is the overarching point here : 1% gains over
a century are immense,
mike_c: plus inflation. bitcoins in the sofa will shrink on
a % basis.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: why do i need to buy
a security then? the rate of conservation for holding bitcoin is 100%
mircea_popescu: so inasmuch as google is worth 1% of all dollars today and 1% of all dollars in 2050,
a high price of google stock is warranted at all points because google is important
mircea_popescu: to make eps etc comparisons between btc and fiat, fiat must first be converted on
a % of m3 basis.
mike_c: you gotta thicken your skin
a bit. you get riled too easy.
mircea_popescu:
a high price in btc does not reflect an expectation of that thing to grow.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: well it depends i guess. mircea_popescu was telling me something about 1% being the natural RoR in bitcoin under one calculation but in
a different calculation 1000s of %
benkay: your opinion is what differentiates you from
a calculator
mike_c: so you have no opinion on the price? you are just
a calculator?
herbijudlestoids: "This premium over normal fair values (compare to our earlier SPY example) assigned by the market under assumptions that EPS growth will be very large. Investors who pay the premium today will be rewarded with reasonable returns only if the actual future EPS growth averages at or above this level for
a significant period of time. Otherwise the investment can reasonably be expected to provide
a poor long term retur
mike_c: "We are talking
a range of 126% - 170% here" << i read into this
a tone saying it was too high. not what you were implying?
herbijudlestoids: theres nowhere that says its overvalued. the point is, you get paid
a decent long term return if the implied EPS is <= actual future EPS. if its > then you dont.
herbijudlestoids: guise, i setup
a page to grep the log.bitcoin-assets for mentions of my name