256000+ entries in 2.009s
Neil: "You" talk about the dynamic of bitbet settling to reasonable odds, but
a counterpoint is the example fo the recent 200 BTC bet on the 10k USD bet.
mircea_popescu: i suppose in
a way it was
a gamble, guy risked 2 btc on the theory "bitbet bettors are idiots"
Neil: The dude betting 100 BTC both ways on some coin toss was
a great specimen of how not to make money on bitbet.
Neil: I think my point stands though - anyone who has bet 2-ways for "decent" size has lost. I have several examples and haven't seen
a single counterexample.
Neil: Where the minimum is 0.5 and where larger size is no more than double smaller size, with > 1 month to go sounds OK, but would like
a concrete example before finally comitting
nubbins` rolls
a garbage can around -assets collecting amounts < 0.5
mircea_popescu: but your claim mostly consists of
a large "bitcoin wont be over 10k" leg with
a tiny "this other thing" leg
mircea_popescu: i dun see the problem with it, seems
a legitimate controversy.
Neil:
A bitbet on
a bitbet?
mircea_popescu: i suggest you make
a bitbet, as you describe it, and ima bet
a little myself.
Neil: mircea_popescu: So regarding
http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/ and our friend 1K4Fs, I'd be happy to bet real BTC that 1K4Fs loses money regardless of outcome. It's extremely likely (>90%) and given an integral of payoff against probability, I think it's clear betting both ways is
a losing proposition. Well, to me at least, which is all that matters.
ozbot: ClubOrlov: Ukrainians on the verge of
a nervous breakdown
Neil:
A bettor other than bitbet. Bitbet gives one side to the originator of course, so I don't even understand your example. Of course, you may have smart decision makers who decide whether
a given proposition is more likely to turn out + or -, but that's beside the point. Real-life non-bibet bettor in size (say > 0.5 BTC each side)? Just one example?
mircea_popescu: obviously if bitbet house simply kept both addreses it'd actually be ahead by now. which makes it
a fine example of how you can make money betting both sides early.
mircea_popescu:
a) bitbet house bets both sides on all bets, always ; b) in spite of giving away one of the addresses, bitbet house still actually makes bank some months, and overall is just about even ; c) ergo, double betting can be productive.
Neil: mircea_popescu:
http://bitbet.us/bet/619/bitcoin-difficulty-at-or-above-2b-before-feb/ 16tA0 (apologies for remebering wrong above) bets 11 and 8 (19 total) gets less than 14 back. I claim that is typical, and can support with more examples. Can you give me even one example of
a two-way bet like this, for similar amounts in size, that was
a profit for the bettor?
nubbins`: "i'd love to turn my peanut into
a banana" etc
nubbins`: asciilifeform: i always questioned why spammers thought I'd consider an email hawking "v1agr4" as
a legitimate source for prescription medication
Mats_cd03: dude can handle running
a bidness but cant hire
a fluent english speaker
Neil: mircea_popescu: But of course. I'm not stupid. The 16% is
a good example: the house wins the more people rationally take all that is available "for (near) free".
nubbins`: The bet resolves as YES if the man in the bank is wearing
a green shirt
Neil: Is it Atoi or something similar has done similar both-way bets on bitbet quite
a lot? Each one lost, which is to be expected, given my claim that waiting pays.
Neil: mircea_popescu:
A big, and time-dependent, "if".
Neil: He paid
a 1 BTC gratiuity to bitbet to let later bettors enjoy some free beers.
Neil: I'll just say that, watching bitbet for
a while, as I have, I feel waiting pays. It is my belief that it would benefit from faster decay.
mircea_popescu: obviously in
a case where
a 3 month bet was resolved in 4 days waiting pays o.O
Neil: So I happily await
a refutation.
mircea_popescu: much akin to saying "i've never seen anyone in
a green tshirt depositing more money in the bank than they were taking out"
Neil: I haven't seen
a single example of anyone (same output address) betting on bitbet making money. There are numerous examples to the contrary.
mircea_popescu: inasmuch as we're asking the same thing lol, youcan do both at
a time
Neil: Which part? One at
a time.
mircea_popescu: “Assuming that insight will work with people who are unmotivated to change is
a colossal misunderstanding."
VanCleef: Is Russia ready to cut up its plastic? After Visa and MasterCard stopped processing some Russian transactions in response to U.S. sanctions, Moscow says it could launch
a homegrown payment system that could be ready in as little as six months
MisterE: imagine if it was
a black woman chetty :p
ozbot: Gerry Images | F.
A.T.
MisterE: it's great to see for
a change
VanCleef: so Putin opened
a new account at Rossiya and his monthly salary to be transferred there instead. lolz obama pwnd
nubbins`: ^ what
a problem to have, hey?
nubbins`: buddy of mine is
a big horror/creepshow buff, threw it on for me once
nubbins`: i think that last one is
a 6, anyway
cazalla: i thought it was going to be shit but it was
a pleasant surprise
cazalla: oh, there is
a 2012 movie with the same name
MisterE: horror / thriller is not usually
a genre I consider
Apocalyptic: <nubbins`> heard it's
a piece of shit << it's way worse actually
benkay: robo combat's
a bit of
a trope at this point, the20year
mircea_popescu: there's
a us base in constanta, which i guess the us will have to defend
mircea_popescu: roughly the equivalent of mpoe-pr going tyre kicking around berkshire with stuff like "o this is
a good investment you bigmouth ?!?! what sort of odds do you give bitcoi nbeats you ? 100:1 ? "
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves check it out, this dood would like to make
a bet provided mpoe-pr doesn't pay for it in bitcoin and she agrees that no bet can be made.
the20year: The property we just bought for $70k has
a rebuild value of something like $275k
the20year: Well , it's half
a mill per occupant, then premises of no less than 80%. best thing on earth would be for
a house to be burnt to the ground without anyone hurt :D it's amazing to me how much they insure our properties for
the20year: We on the otherhand carry half
a million dollars on each property, and then are applying for
a $2m-$3m blanket for the company itself
the20year: Well , gave up on being
a landlord
the20year: I have to take
a look at it, we might be able to get it for $20k or so. they bought it in 2006 and managed it quite poorly. tenant burnt down
a garage and they gave it up
the20year: Yes, very helpful , we've got
a few great announcements coming up. Still have 100ish BTC left in reserves for another property
the20year: Yeah, definately. really would like to do
a flip here soon but i don't have
a any good candidates for that right now. Got
a few duplexes I'm looking at, one is $27k the other is $39.9k
benkay: give it
a year, the mindfucks slow down eventually but don't stop.
moiety: fed bought abrin off
a teenager with btc
moiety: it is
a big channel, it was perhaps just all the eyes
radan: let's say the payout for yes on
a given bet is 1.5
duduqa: gotta go, folks, have
a goof day/night
moiety: python can just go slither away until i have
a dev chained to
a raditor somewhere
benkay: pretty sure that's the first thing i learned when i started working with javascript as
a matter of fact.
radan: it's like
a license to print money
MisterE: I do remember briefly reading the site and what exactly
a yes or no could mean was very difficult to determine sometimes
MisterE: you have
a fee so you're always out then
ThickAsThieves: I have
a celendar reminder to review bitbet every 3 days
mircea_popescu:
a good policy is perhaps to never bet the day you discover
a bet
radan: and use it like
a club to beat on anyone who's not following their "recommendations"
radan: in
a perfect world, yea
ozbot: More Than 30% Of Americans Haven't Visited
A Bank In The Last Six Months