log☇︎
242600+ entries in 1.772s
mircea_popescu: it has a lengthy tradition i nthe ip business.
mircea_popescu: cads i just did.
cads: Well like pageviews -> $s it's hard to quantify. It's a non-monetized time waste with leeches sucking at each juncture, so I'm not sure where to begin speculating on the profit
Namworld: I didn't have cable until like 2000 and I don't know when we got Internet... probably so late.
jurov: i do remember them, it was a biggie for some time. fortunately i was not allowed much tv then
cads: jurov: I dunno, ponies were never in the male culture growing up, at best I would have seen commercials
cads: I myself know entirely too much my little pony stuff to not be afraid.
cads: I've got another friend and she has a brother that has an actual pony stamp tattoo.
jurov: i guess these males got it inflicted upon them in the 1990s when original ponies aired
Namworld: jurov, I thought bronies were mostly little girls under 10 and guys 30-50.
cads: jurov: I'd hope the mass majority are teenagers
mircea_popescu: which is how i got to hear about it, the anthropologists keeping track of the decay of the us cultural space noticed that it's not just that holywood can't make a film that's not either a very bad socialist tract or else a drug chain
jurov: bronies are middle age? i thought it's teenagers
cads: that's about it, except behind the scenes of course there's all sorts of disgusting pony porn and yeah, I think you hit it on the head
mircea_popescu: that i heard of.
Duffer1: i don't know if there's support for that statement caz hehe
mircea_popescu: cads i know little girls ride them, occasionally...
cazalla: yeah but i don't have the time for mmos anymore like wildstar
cazalla: i need to finish the latest one that came out
herbijudlestoids: anyway. i cant stick around. i just came because mike_c said i said MPOE was overvalued.
herbijudlestoids: i like the ngram viewer much more than google trends
herbijudlestoids: if you tell me something i dont understand, i will question. not to defend my existing view, which im happy to discard given evidence.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: like i said earlier. i dont view this as an argument, when i question it is just to learn. i am always willing to consider an opinion or formula or whatever, even if i dont accept it in the end.
mircea_popescu: i imagine they;'d be sexier.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids i r sorry but it is. pretty much any assumption of market efficiency in any bitcoin market is touched in the head.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c originally said that i assumed the market was efficient and therefore MPOE was overpriced. i did not saythat.
herbijudlestoids: i am not.
mircea_popescu: which is why i love you.
herbijudlestoids: so? still waiting to understand how my notion of "growth" is imported from fiat and why i should focus on the "rate of conservation"
KRS-One: http://i.imgur.com/pU2lyce.jpg
mircea_popescu: for that matter, the other angle i can't reduce or disprove is "very small certain income > any other alternative, seeing how all other assets are -EV so far"
mircea_popescu: right. that's an angle i can't reduce or disprove.
ThickAsThieves: i just dont see how you could possibly isolate anything useful
ThickAsThieves: i contemplated reinstallation...
herbijudlestoids: ok maybe i am making some assumptions, but i think those assumptions: 1. that the price of MPOE is derived from something, 2. that MPOE is an economic entity 3. that the price of MPOE is derived from that economic activity
herbijudlestoids: how do i know what...that the price of MPOE is derived from economic activities?
mircea_popescu: (don't get me wrong, i get the ample wtftude involved here. i humbly submit it's not because of me but because of fundamental issues stemming from the nature of btc)
Duffer1: mike_c ah thanks i misread conservation
herbijudlestoids: ps: we arent arguing, i am questioning, to understand
herbijudlestoids: cos you said some bullshit about my focus on growth coming from fiat and that i should focus on the rate of conservation
mircea_popescu: well i don't see i could disagree with that.
ThickAsThieves: i think it's like a currency rate burdened by indeterminable inflation rates
ThickAsThieves: i dont think it can be
mircea_popescu: basically the lot of what i'm saying is that there are no acceptable models to valuate here.
herbijudlestoids: i have some experience with the same concept re gold
herbijudlestoids: ok, i dont disagree with any of those statements
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i am totally fine with valuing MPOE on a book value basis. so what is the current P/B multiple?
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i said *asset*. any of them, it doesnt matter.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: i thought the article ...i just wrote...makes it pretty clear? if youre buying one asset based on the 6 month historicals, then the future has to play out in a certain way for your investment to not underperform.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: no i wouldnt value shit based on historical data alone?
mike_c: i said the same historicals. obviously no one "knows" the future rate of return.
herbijudlestoids: sure, if so, i would value them identically
mike_c: no, i'm talking about with the same historicals (price and eps for last 6 months)
herbijudlestoids: i must be a complete moron
mike_c: i'm not claiming that.
Bugpowdurr: Also damn, I'm on a network that doesn't let me send BTC.
Bugpowdurr: I was thinking that someone could deduce whether the whale short the puts had been stopped out by MKOPT / EXERCISE a number of options and see how many were assigned to him vs. other.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: if the price i pay today for MPOE is more than the total amount of gains that MPOE can bring in over say, 10 years, then it is a bad investment for people looking for assets to invest in for 10 years
ThickAsThieves: that;s what i took from it as well
ThickAsThieves: i did
herbijudlestoids: ThickAsThieves: dude. i did not say MPOE was expensive.
mircea_popescu: from what i gather in this chan most do.
herbijudlestoids: im asking. you said focus on rate of conservation...i fail to see why i would invest in any security in that case, rather than investing in good wallet practices etc
herbijudlestoids: so are you gonna explain it or do i just wallow in my retardedness
mircea_popescu: but i suspect this is the overarching point here : 1% gains over a century are immense,
chetty: well mine has this silly habit of growing when I don't look too often :)
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: why do i need to buy a security then? the rate of conservation for holding bitcoin is 100%
herbijudlestoids: if the price of S.MPOE does not include growth, then why am i paying more than its dividend value for it?
herbijudlestoids: there is no fiat involved and i explicitly state so at the end of the article
mircea_popescu: fwiw, i don't think the entire "growth" bs is worth two shits.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: see that is useful feedback which i appreciate. your earlier comments just get my grill.
herbijudlestoids: i do but its not bitcoin related Duffer1
herbijudlestoids: if we are operating under assumption of bitcoin economy, i would say its fairly priced, not undervalued
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: well it depends i guess. mircea_popescu was telling me something about 1% being the natural RoR in bitcoin under one calculation but in a different calculation 1000s of %
herbijudlestoids: you guys sure are weird sometimes. benkay, the point of the article is to highlight things that people might not know about. if i had some info or opinoin that MPOE was undervalued or overvalued, why would i put it on the blog for morons to see instead of just buying or selling MPOE?
mike_c: ok, so forget the article. i am curious what your opinion is.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: whether or not i have an opinion really has shit all to do with the article
herbijudlestoids: i love people who love quants
mike_c: i don't care if you are saying it was too high, you are entitled to your opinion.
mike_c: "We are talking a range of 126% - 170% here" << i read into this a tone saying it was too high. not what you were implying?
herbijudlestoids: i said, if we assume, for the sake of an experiment, that the market has priced efficiently, then this is what its implying as EPS growth
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: if what you quoted is what you took away from the blog post, i guess i must suck at communicating.
herbijudlestoids: guise, i setup a page to grep the log.bitcoin-assets for mentions of my name
mircea_popescu: <mike_c> i love quants. "if we assume the market is correctly pricing this stock, then we can derive that this stock is overpriced" :) >> pretty much it.
mike_c: i love quants. "if we assume the market is correctly pricing this stock, then we can derive that this stock is overpriced" :)
asciilifeform: http://i.imgur.com/z5OXztS.jpg
nubbins`: not what i was expecting you to do. d6
mircea_popescu: http://i.imgur.com/UBbKmto.png
mircea_popescu: i dunno anyone actually did this, may make for a good blogpost
nubbins`: i mean uh, half of that
pankkake: and until I have a mail-to-comment gateway, I'm sticking to wordpress
mircea_popescu: i bet that's how disqus was born, some ycombinated heads were sitting around and one went
mircea_popescu: i dunno dood. say by putting a link TO THEMSELVES on your shit.
mircea_popescu: so if i rape you with a door open that's good enough.
pankkake: herbiju*: I'll provite leet hosting for a 5% cut of the prize
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids> hullo guys, i wrote a new blog...because i was reading teh log.bitcoin-assets and saw i could earn teh nobel -assets price <<< lawl
pankkake: I would never open a mysql server to the world, always use a tunnel
pankkake: and yeah, authentication on the protocol level is usually useless, redundant, and a liability (i.e. "can you really rely on it")
benkay: i keep a repl in production
pankkake: I use tunnels for a lot of things