232800+ entries in 1.774s
Neil: A bettor other than bitbet. Bitbet gives one side to the originator of course, so
I don't even understand your example. Of course, you may have smart decision makers who decide whether a given proposition is more likely to turn out + or -, but that's beside the point. Real-life non-bibet bettor in size (say > 0.5 BTC each side)? Just one example?
Neil: (
i.e. where yes and no bets were simliar in size)
Neil: mircea_popescu:
http://bitbet.us/bet/619/bitcoin-difficulty-at-or-above-2b-before-feb/ 16tA0 (apologies for remebering wrong above) bets 11 and 8 (19 total) gets less than 14 back.
I claim that is typical, and can support with more examples. Can you give me even one example of a two-way bet like this, for similar amounts in size, that was a profit for the bettor?
nubbins`: "
i'd love to turn my peanut into a banana" etc
nubbins`: mouth-breathers of the world, meantime, think "hmm,
i could use d1ck p1ll5..."
nubbins`: asciilifeform:
i always questioned why spammers thought
I'd consider an email hawking "v1agr4" as a legitimate source for prescription medication
Neil:
I don't have anything against bitbet.
I like the site. Just saying it how
I see it.
mircea_popescu:
i think you'll have to re-read this later because
i can't produce examples if you randomly reject examples.
Neil: mircea_popescu:
I'm still waiting for your counterexample to my claim.
Mats_cd03:
i just read the copy on rockminer.com
Neil: mircea_popescu: But of course.
I'm not stupid. The 16% is a good example: the house wins the more people rationally take all that is available "for (near) free".
VanCleef: erm
i thought rockminer was ipoing tomorrow noon china time and they just announce that the ipo is already over and all shares have sold
mircea_popescu: the trouble is that
i'm not disagreeing with you,
i'm discussing those facts.
Neil: mircea_popescu: Given your stake in the process
I don't expect you to agree with me. But
I think the facts speak for themselves. If someone believes 2-way betting pays they're welcome to continue doing it.
Neil:
I don't think it matters what happens. No way is he winning 100 BTC.
mircea_popescu: which...
i have no idea what that's supposed to prove ?
Neil: Let's wait and see.
I'm quite happy to do so.
mircea_popescu: unless
i'm doing this badly, should the bet come out as yes he's making ~300 btc
Neil:
I am willing to bet an insane amount that 1K4Fs will lose on his two-way bet. And big-time.
Neil:
I'll just say that, watching bitbet for a while, as
I have,
I feel waiting pays. It is my belief that it would benefit from faster decay.
mircea_popescu: "footwear should be made to support taller women because you should see this swede
i'm dating"
mircea_popescu: no lol.
i'm claiming that on the basis of picking some outliers you can't make general statements.
Neil: So
I happily await a refutation.
mircea_popescu: but
i'm just saying, "same address" is an irrelevant selection here.
mircea_popescu: much akin to saying "
i've never seen anyone in a green tshirt depositing more money in the bank than they were taking out"
Neil:
I haven't seen a single example of anyone (same output address) betting on bitbet making money. There are numerous examples to the contrary.
Neil: mircea_popescu: MisterE no actually, betting both sides is the way to play. <<
I think, judging from the public histories on bitbet, that this is very poor advice. It seems that waiting pays;
I think bitbet probably needs harsher time decay than linear.
jurov: or
i remember badly?
gribble:
I have not seen tiberiusv.
gribble:
I have not seen tiberiusxii.
gribble:
I have not seen tiberiusxi.
nubbins`:
i can only assume people click on them, but
i'm not sure why
ThickAsThieves:
i like when jiggly butt girl is there to greet me at kat.ph
nubbins`: they remade it (the original is austrian) but
i've only seen the original
nubbins`: so silvergoldbull (canadian bullion dealer) now accepts btc, but
i can't figure out where they're getting their rates from
nubbins`:
i think that last one is a 6, anyway
cazalla:
i thought it was going to be shit but it was a pleasant surprise
MisterE: horror / thriller is not usually a genre
I consider
ThickAsThieves:
i watched gravity last night, that was actually pretty good
mircea_popescu: and
i very much doubt romania cxan be bothered ot invade either moldova or cernauti
mircea_popescu: there's a us base in constanta, which
i guess the us will have to defend
MisterE:
I guess nobody will do nothing without EU / nato
the20year:
i thought they began mobilization last week
mircea_popescu: but on the heels of the jimmothy O
I BET YOU !!11 10 bitcents!11
the20year:
I'm gonna bet they didn't carry insurance
the20year:
I have to take a look at it, we might be able to get it for $20k or so. they bought it in 2006 and managed it quite poorly. tenant burnt down a garage and they gave it up
mike_c:
i'll take the duplex for 27.
the20year: One of the candidates we barely miss was just re-listed. They bought it for $52k,
I imagine put $10k or less in it and have it on the market for $119k
the20year: Yeah, definately. really would like to do a flip here soon but
i don't have a any good candidates for that right now. Got a few duplexes
I'm looking at, one is $27k the other is $39.9k
mike_c:
i think you can build source control into an altcoin.
moiety:
i thought
i always wanted decentralized on everything?
the20year: mike_c:
i'm not sure where hte last update was here. We have 6 total properties either purchased or in contract. closed on #4 today, supposed to close on #5 any day now. #6 closes the 7th of next month
moiety: its specifically for giving remote ssh access to one domain only rather than the whole hosting account.
i can use git for that?
moiety:
i can serve cosmopolitans and offer to burn bras at the door if required
radan: if some newbie reads the log and thinks he can print money based on what
I said 10 mins ago,
I'd like to help him out by telling him it's impossible
moiety: ah, lol
i did see that :P
benkay:
i scared her off, moiety
moiety: what name? how did
i miss that :/
moiety: python can just go slither away until
i have a dev chained to a raditor somewhere
benkay:
i'm out here trying to kill some bison to feed my people and my damn gun just won't stop pointing at my foot
moiety: not hard, just tedious benkay .
i think
i have the fucking javascript up part totally down
benkay: pretty sure that's the first thing
i learned when
i started working with javascript as a matter of fact.
radan: then
I win either way
MisterE: benkay:
I understand that as the first few people who are in share the winnings
MisterE:
I do remember briefly reading the site and what exactly a yes or no could mean was very difficult to determine sometimes
benkay:
i still don't actually understand how to actually play parimutuel odds
MisterE: the more
I hear you guys chatter about it the more likely will though heh
MisterE:
I'm afraid to look into it another time sink!
ozbot: BitBet - May
I suggest 9B difficulty?
duduqa: mircea_popescu:
I said "ban" exactly because of that
mircea_popescu: duduqa
i had no idea colombia actually can ban things. didn't they fail with cocaine ?
radan: maybe
I'll invest the same amount in the other direction to cancel it out
ThickAsThieves:
I have a celendar reminder to review bitbet every 3 days
radan:
I thought betting yes would return 28x