log☇︎
232700+ entries in 1.819s
asciilifeform: jurov: i have this crap set to 'interrupt', not 'poll', so i might be a little behind.
Mats_cd03: Back to Bataan i haven't seen in some time
blackwhite: not sure I understand
blackwhite: Denmark i mean
asciilifeform: this reminds me of an idea that i (and probably everybody) had at one point - a betting engine with auto-resolution using google (or some other mechanical process)
mircea_popescu: as opposed to, "how do i make money ?" "like this"
asciilifeform: i was assuming that the proposal is about bitbet as it currently exists - where bests in the style of 'boxing match' are heavily represented
mircea_popescu: sort-of like saying "i have no need to use computers because i already know what 2+2 comes to"
asciilifeform: i was thinking of a far more mundane aspect, where the best source of info re: the outcome of, say, athletic match, isn't 1000 googles, but the boxer who can decide to 'throw' the match
asciilifeform: if 'watch' is a west german tank engine, and i'm 'gru', then it is worth 100x the price, no?
blackwhite: i.e. with me design work
blackwhite: so regarding the bitcoin as property. What does that mean if I get bitcoin for the work I am doing?
asciilifeform: perhaps i'm thick, but it still seems to me like the biggest winners on bitbet ought to be folks sitting on the right side of an information asymmetry.
thestringpuller: that's one of the best trilema articles I've read
wao-ender: I suggest it as milion dollar idea w/o one dollar, that one dollar you already have in your pocket
mircea_popescu: course, i think they were talking of something else. inasmuch as there can be "something else" in the swamp.
Duffer1: this will end well i'm sure
ThickAsThieves: well more that i respect you have better ability to discern proper rng, crypto, etc than i
asciilifeform: ThickAsThieves: i do hope that you don't think me to be some sort of rng hero
asciilifeform: freedos, last i checked, wasn't 'bug for bug compatible' with msdos.
pankkake: I didn't know the AP style guide existed, I've been meaning to read the Economist one
BingoBoingo: It's what I've been trying to do.
El3k0n: I didn't made that
ThickAsThieves: so if i trade you intellectual proprty for bitcoins, a black hole forms?
novusordo: that's how i've understood it
mircea_popescu: i dunno who'd live in a jurisdiction that takes any other tack to the problem, or why.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform the difference between cement and btc is that i can hit you over the head with the cement.
wao-ender: but yeah, I can imagine, it could work.
mircea_popescu: wao-ender yeah i guess so.
mike_c: yeah, right after i said that i second thought it. lot of the big profits comes from unexpected results.
mircea_popescu: 99.94% i say!
mircea_popescu: a well, i tried.
mircea_popescu: ha! the house clears 10% ? i had it pegged at about 8%
mike_c: i wish
mircea_popescu: i guess im one of the major market foreces there
mircea_popescu: so i bought like a piggy
mircea_popescu: now i look at the market, prices fell an average of 40% across all product classes.
mircea_popescu: also in the news, i took about a week off because of all the press nuttery, during which i stopped buying raw materials
ThickAsThieves: hmm i dont see "detail" anywhere
pankkake: I suppose I should blame the hardware… though both are raid6
pankkake: I am transferring my data from old to new drives, and I started a checksum verification of the tranferred files, for fun. turns out, a lot weren't transferred correctly
kakobrekla: i guess we need some ?json on /browse/
benkay: and i'm not seeing any pagination handles in the 'resolved' rss
BingoBoingo: Still doesn't fit with risk profiles I find betable. You never know who has Bitcoin.
BingoBoingo: I'm still iffy on the whole NBA thing. Might as well open a bet on who wins the whole Wrestlemania thing.
BingoBoingo: mike_c: I Mr. Stern still the commissioner?
BingoBoingo: mike_c: You know I dun really do the basketball thing http://www.thedrinkingrecord.com/2014/03/13/an-overview-of-betable-sports-part-2-basketball/
ozbot: My wife was raped my four men. I can't live or be with her with that on my mind. I have to leave her
mircea_popescu: i dunno.
asciilifeform: novusordo: what prompts? last i saw, 'trezor' had no keyboard
novusordo: so apparently the trezor has a better recovery system than I thought
rithm: i'm just glad my computer works today
asciilifeform: http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2014/03/24/color-rotsnake_custom-d48b779a38b868da75a48c9b1e7e5515a0a644cd-s40-c85.gif << what does it say about me brain if i can... make it stand still
mircea_popescu: i like big women too, but these seem big in all the wrong ways in all the wrong places.
mircea_popescu: i believe the guy never saw a russ meyer film.
nubbins`: mircea_popescu: for that matter, i don't think the chemist generally lays the blotter at all
nubbins`: Mats_cd03: i haven't been keeping track of the clones at all
nubbins`: mircea_popescu: as it happens, the best i've tried has been white-on-white (no design at all)
Mats_cd03: as i understand it, the best market are the sr clones
mircea_popescu: davout well i can't find it now. some kid from the "community" of self-proclaimed experts wrote some sort of article/"white paper" on how bitcoin exchanges should do x y z to get their risk of blowing up in line with the risk of the average 20yo getting hit by a bus
mircea_popescu: novusordo yeah, i believe this is a mpex innovation.
asciilifeform: i suppose it also matters what is meant by death. i.e. many fiat corps would become fiat corpses, and rather indistinguishable from gox, if disconnected from usg printer.
novusordo: i'm having trouble with coming up with any good examples of non-asset holding corps preceding bitcoin
mircea_popescu: davout from what i recall, some random idiot opining was claiming that getting the average bitcoin exchange at the safety rate of the average human would be a great gain in security.
davout: i agree with that
davout: but i do agree that the improvement of natural selection is a good thing
Neil: I want to understand better what can happen.
Neil: I'm not disputing the setup, I actually like it.
Neil: Trying to understand what's "in-scope" and what isn't. I personally don't think it's clear. I respect your desire to run a clean, auditable (via blockchain) operation. But the future isn't clear at all, to me anyway.
Neil: So as a prospective investor, given the terms, I'm thinking "Where can this go, how can it expand?" And it seems limited. Which may not be a bad thing.
Neil: Sure. I respect you believe that.
Neil: mircea_popescu: So, somehting I've wondered. Do the "bitbet" terms at MPEX prevent bitbet branching out into other revenue streams?
Neil: Clearly the market is thin. No, I have no idea either, but clearly there are limits in our fun little world. Which is good :)
mircea_popescu: but i can't dispute the facts on the basis of my own opinion either.
mircea_popescu: i have no idea.
mircea_popescu: what am i, god ?
mircea_popescu: you could, but i'd shrug
Neil: Friction of trusting a dude with the initials MP, friction of knowing the bet exists and the odds, friction of knowing the odds can change underneath you, friction of tying your money up for 1 year, ... I could go on.
Neil: The Berkshire bet is another example, I think. The odds are higher that 3% (perhaps 15%) but friction prevents realization.
mircea_popescu: but i mean what's in a belief
Neil: (i.e. no new bets have come in to counterbalance). I don't believe the "market" odds moved that much overnight. Friction is high.
Neil: But I'd also support anyone's right to bet that...
Neil: Not so smart. I wouldn't bet that.
mircea_popescu: i suppose in a way it was a gamble, guy risked 2 btc on the theory "bitbet bettors are idiots"
Neil: mircea_popescu: Though I think he actually got some contra bets late in the game, which meant he came out near break-even, by luck of said coin toss!
Neil: I think my point stands though - anyone who has bet 2-ways for "decent" size has lost. I have several examples and haven't seen a single counterexample.
Neil: nubbins`: I'd prefer more evenly weighted. The 0.5 was to eliminate trash.
Neil: mircea_popescu: Happy to entertain any other bet, of over 0.5 BTC per side, where someone has bet both ways. I'm not holding my breath, given the performance so far...
mircea_popescu: so just because he went on long odds you're telling me bitbet is broken ? dude wanted the long odds, what can i say
mircea_popescu: i'll take even odds on the proposition that 1k4fs makes money *irrespective* of result
mircea_popescu: but then i'd have to hedge it somehow because clearly it's contingent on how the bet plays out.
Neil: But I'd want to bet 5 BTC against reasonable odds, and bitbet doesn't offer that. Only you can.
mircea_popescu: i dun see the problem with it, seems a legitimate controversy.
mircea_popescu: i suggest you make a bitbet, as you describe it, and ima bet a little myself.
Neil: mircea_popescu: So regarding http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/ and our friend 1K4Fs, I'd be happy to bet real BTC that 1K4Fs loses money regardless of outcome. It's extremely likely (>90%) and given an integral of payoff against probability, I think it's clear betting both ways is a losing proposition. Well, to me at least, which is all that matters.
jurov: yes i put that here yest, complete with map
asciilifeform: 'ever-amusing Russian Liberal Democrat leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky has proposed dividing up Western Ukraine between Poland, Hungary and Romania. Poland quickly responded that it has no interest in annexing former Eastern Poland. I can't blame them.'
mircea_popescu: VanCleef i dun see why it'd be useful.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i recall a us that'd have just laughed.
Neil: I'm trying hard to understand somehting that doesn't exist. Waiting for proof.