190000+ entries in 0.075s
mircea_popescu: i really don't care what they cost. i am taking them all.
mircea_popescu: for instance : when i put 1 btc on the theory that ethereum dies by the end of the year, i got liquidated 5:1 within hours.
mircea_popescu: now, suppose i make a bet that tomorrow will be a solar eclipse.
mircea_popescu: but as to the experiment : suppose your coin exists. suppose it has a total issued volume of 1mn coins. suppose i own them all, because i'm an asshole and i buy them all.
mircea_popescu: i mean srsly nobody cares if you came up with it or clark gable did. that's not at issue. and in general "original research" is even a topic only among the wikitards. it's not a legitimate consideration.
mircea_popescu: i'm kinda puzzled why the problem is not directly obvious.
mircea_popescu: or you could keep it simple, and explain why your excel spreadsheet isn't hard at work finding boyfriends for all the very fat lonely feminists out there.
mircea_popescu: whence in the everloving fuck will you summon into existence counters for all the solo traders trading with no one ?
mircea_popescu: fiat, delta knowledge on valuation. i doubtr you'll find anyone who even will entertain the approach, within finance. but moving on :
mircea_popescu: uhm. what ungodly sort of post structuralist lacanian approach to finance is this supposed to be!
mircea_popescu: and you're like, almost there, and all i do is recite that and laugh. you're out on your ass.
mircea_popescu: suppose you're in a VC office trying to close a deal. and i drop by to take the guy out to golf.
mircea_popescu: because if i want to sink your chances, understand, all i need is to quote this and snicker.
mircea_popescu: "My design was able to solve a few other PM-problems as well. Any user can create a market about anything, removing the dual-requirement that a PM-administrator must not only be trustworthy, but also share your prediction-interests. Market scoring rule technology ensures that trading volume is irrelevant, and traders will always be able make a trade updating the price to their estimation (even if they are the only trad
mircea_popescu: ok, sure, for a given level, as long as that level is very high, they are in fact cheaper.
mircea_popescu: it's ironclad, sure. but a tank has not very good fuel economy.
mircea_popescu: the entire "bitcoin is efficient" thing is very 2010s naivete. it is anything but.
mircea_popescu: ement device is BY FAR the most expensive, cumbersome and unwieldy mechanism for settlement ever devised. it was not even feasible to contemplate before computing and major bandwidth was available.
mircea_popescu: "Although Bitcoin does not solve our PM problems, it demonstrates that a blockchain can provide scalable, censorship-resistant, and trustless solutions. Blockchain solutions also generate efficiency by cutting out middlemen and avoiding overhead costs (no brick-and-mortar, compliance, administration, etc.)." << this is miserable. what exactly is "solutions" supposed to mean ? and more importantly : the blockchain settl
mircea_popescu: the only thing "proofs" will do is make people optimize for the exam. that is all.
mircea_popescu: the notion that "proving" "solvency" which is to say, having money may somehow buy character, and on it trust.
mircea_popescu: "Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it...Because a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom."
mircea_popescu: anyway, the jpm thing is more important, so let's get back to that for a second. the matter was put to him, in a congressional hearing, "Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?"
mircea_popescu: much to the disbelief of the entire collected "foundation" & assorted jesuses, captains of industry and whatnots.
mircea_popescu: anyway : consider that when mp said mtgox goes away, mtgox actually went away.
mircea_popescu: but no, the various hanger ons trying to insinuate themselves in bitcoin do not by this desire actually become part of the thing.
mircea_popescu: these claims must be novel. ever since they forgot to mention how shockingly little they processed for "black friday"
mircea_popescu: well, for starters, they priced bitcoin in dollars not dollars in bitcoin.
mircea_popescu: you don't think walmart is a tide business for instance, do you ?
mircea_popescu: the proposition that mtgox was a bitcoin business is tenuous.
mircea_popescu: (do you happen to be familiar with the exchange i'm referencing there ?)
mircea_popescu: "Although businesses can prove their solvency, proof of future-solvency is impossible, and even solvent Bitcoin PM-businesses would be able to steal funds by trading on and then reporting incorrect prediction outcomes." << this is a feckless misstatement of the situation. a centralized business is predicated on the trustworthyness of its living owner. whose word is, to repurpose a JPM quote, "worth more than all the bo
mircea_popescu: now, feel free to generalize on the remainder 10%, but it is not unlike saying "men are evil and should be locked up".
mircea_popescu: together these make up a good 90% of bitcoin busiensses.
mircea_popescu: "The Bitcoin businesses that oppose this intent by holding customer funds (for example the currency exchanges) lose those funds regularly." << except mpex never did. and bitbet never did. and so on.
mircea_popescu: as the saying goes around here, you might not be interested in fungibility, but that doesn't prevent it from being interested in you.
mircea_popescu: this is why money is important, this annullment of a perceived difference.
mircea_popescu: whether each pays his own each time in silence, or you buy one round and he buys another round is nil.
mircea_popescu: and thje best example to verify this is, a situation where you and another guy sit in a bar for the space it takes to drink two drafts each.
mircea_popescu: im sorry. the DIFFERENCE between the two situations is imaginary is what i mean.
mircea_popescu: there's nothing magical about money being "your own". the situation where you own house A, and live in house B which is identical but you rent ; and the situation where you own house A and live in house A is imaginary.
mircea_popescu: i disagree with the notion that whether bitcoin was designed for people to hold own money or opm follows from bitcoin being p2p ; that there is a way to differentiate between opm and yom. and other things
mircea_popescu: or at least shore it up past the nude declaratory thing ?
mircea_popescu: "Bitcoin is P2P software. It was not ever designed for other people to store your money; it was designed for you to store your own money." << can you prove this ?
mircea_popescu: "i once got formed an idea while in front of the tv ergo tv has a gift" ?
mircea_popescu: ok, indulge me. give me an example of an idea that was so communicated by television.
mircea_popescu: " Television has a gift for simplifying and communicating ideas" << o lordy.
mircea_popescu: but leaving aside the entire "prediction market" thing, lemme try and find the actual coin discussion.
mircea_popescu: none of this stands to actual scrutiny, but hey, peopel got enamoured with whatever that irish thing was called, and it got to die a hero's death so we'll hear about it like we wouldn't have heard if it just died naturally.
mircea_popescu: info-sources in a way that is consistently and unanimously acceptable." << like that.
mircea_popescu: "When anyone can trade, no source of information is overlooked, and market forces balance
mircea_popescu: careful what and whom you steal from, lest you get poisoned.
mircea_popescu: you're perhaps unfamiliar with the saying "traduttore, traditore".
mircea_popescu: "The current market price of these tradable predictions can then be interpreted as the likelihood of the prediction coming true." << because, why ?
mircea_popescu: suppose i read this in 3030, at which point no fucking body knows what $ is, and we decide it stands for "trustcoin"
mircea_popescu: why would it be a magic number and why would the number reference an undefined concept.
mircea_popescu: ""Whereas a stock market is a place to buy and sell shares of a corporation’s earnings, a Prediction Market (PM) is a place to buy and sell predictions. Valid predictions entitle their owner to $11"" << this, foir the record, is horrible writing. do not mix things so far apart the abstraction scale, it confuses idiots and it gives smart people the impression your abstractor really has very little breadth.
mircea_popescu: the question is whether the animal so obtained will quack.
mircea_popescu: in any case, the question here isn't whether you could stuff the heart of an ox, the guts of a pig and the lungs of a horse inside the skin of a skinned goose.
mircea_popescu: but you will notice you downloading porn and the functioning of a market are unrelated.