117300+ entries in 2.435s
thestringpuller: lol "You're the guy who wasn'
t good enough to sling dope."
davout: yeah, but i wouldn'
t try to build it in, i'd make a separate app
mjr_: lol, i wouldn'
t understand
davout: mjr_: some folks want to do the same in paris, talked about your project too, you probably don'
t read the french sub fora though :-)
furuknap: The thing is, my analysis shows AM being a good invesment (meaning beating NASDAQ by a bit and countered for the risk weight) at 1.50 tops, maybe a bit more because I could be swayed to bet on delays from competitors. However, I wouldn'
t pay 1.8 for this share, and I don'
t do bubbles.
furuknap: Sorry, even that is too risky for me. Besides, I don'
t have that much liquid.
mircea_popescu: people like to pretend this isn'
t the case, but it is.
louong: you can'
t see how many orders they are getting
aknap3: I didn'
t expect it to move so soon -- I managed to save them all
thestringpuller: you shouldn'
t be underwriting calls so low when the price is moving
mircea_popescu: i don;'
t think that can work as an automated thing. i think it has to be curated
mircea_popescu: well 10yo people aren'
t particularly jewish or anything else. just kids.
mircea_popescu: one of the chief points thereof being that if you ain'
t laughing you ain'
t got it.
mircea_popescu: you know, the one annoying thing hitler did was... he didn;
t simply kill all the jews he could get.
thestringpuller: ThickAsThieves maybe he just wants to tell me random insane shit i said x time ago finally made sense to him. << pretty much, i don'
t want to spam the channel. mp is good people for this very reason.
deadweasel: i don'
t want to carry a whole computer around all the time
jurov: not sure how much, can'
t find better charts
aknap3: means we don'
t get sniped later
deadweasel: jcpham: i respect that. guts often know things our conscious minds don'
t.
saulimus: can'
t you lose usd also? thieves can just buy coins with your usd and transfer out
deadweasel: don'
t worry, I'm all cash except cold storage, i won'
t steal your cheap things
mircea_popescu: why don'
t options get their own mpsics like in NORMAL SANE PEOPLE LAND
aknap3: oh come on, don'
t pretend you don'
t know those are my options :)
deadweasel: no, not yet, I downloaded the first few, but GF was frightened so didn'
t get through 5 minutes of first one.
mircea_popescu: might explain why actual ws types aren'
t as worried about it as the forum variety seekrs.
kakobrekla: >Don'
t worry about me. This is normal (for me, at least). Finland is a good country as regards the treatment of nuts.
ericmuys_: truffles: most programmers don'
t touch circuits.
dub: spun out on hairpin, got
t-boned by kart behind
dub: they can'
t double hashrate
ericmuys_: unless he bought at >= 2.2, I wouldn'
t call it a loss because cashing out early != losing, but it's a very similar analogy in that *the math* is correct, but the logic is twisted, just like his article.
furuknap: Thus you demonstrate your lack of understanding my using an analogy that doesn'
t work.
furuknap: You analogy is completely irrelevant in that you don'
t retain your hours for later resale at a higher value.
furuknap: You are quite free to demonstrate your lack of understanding by using different analogies. It doesn'
t change the math.
furuknap: I'd be happy if someone could point out flaws in the math. Right now it's mostly "but I want this to not be true!" which isn'
t really doing anything for anyone.
ericmuys_: buying a few machines that do nothing but hash sha256 don'
t warrant more than one company. the existing company and new company have one purpose: sha256. would not touch with 10 foot pole.
furuknap: It seems to me, at least on the surface, that GOG.F is a reasonable purchase. Timing is actually less important if the manager is reasonable (like Chaang says). 2.5 BTC invested in mining is 2.5 BTC invested in mining regardless of when it happens. If the investment is sound, it doesn'
t really matter when that happens.
ericmuys_: parseval: or the speculators won'
t be happy with the dividends and end up bailing
parseval: I thought they hadn'
t ordered that yet and were wavering on whether to go to AM for the next one
furuknap: I don'
t see why they couldn'
t used the raised funds to make purchases already, though. I mean, if a great deal comes up and they're short a few bonds, they lose out even if they have the funds at hand.
furuknap: I did, but it wasn'
t entirely clear when the orders were placed.
fiat500: If there isn'
t enough demand to purchase a single bitcoin miner after a week of the first sale of a COG.F contract, COG.F purchases will be refunded."
furuknap: eric: You probably don'
t understand something in that article. The GPOU and BTC is irrelevant. Difficulty is irrelevant. Mining is irrelevant. USD is irrelevant. Hence the A, B, and C in the first part of the article.
ericmuys_: furuknap: this article makes no sense. if it takes 1 GPU 1 week to mine 1 BTC it doesn'
t matter how much the GPU is worth in USD. what 1 BTC is worth is what matters. higher is always better unless you consider the difficulty decreasing as the price decreases. otherwise common sense is pretty good here. "When the price of Bitcoin rises, our value denominated in Bitcoin drops drastically. When the price of Bitcoin
furuknap: Nah, I don'
t gamble, and that applies to my investing too. Boring, yeah, but I sleep well with open positions.
furuknap: I don'
t play pokwer so I have no idea what that means :-)
furuknap: Then you're no longer a miner, but a coin holder, and the argument doesn'
t apply.
furuknap: Doesn'
t really matter. A price drop is still more favorable for miners.
furuknap: The counter-intuitive thing that miners miss is that they're arguing that they want to pay as much as possible for their coins and then sell for the same price, which doesn'
t make sense when you think about it.
furuknap: It isn'
t, any more than the dollars fate is tied to yen or euros or ximabwean dollars.
ericmuys_: why can'
t the dividends continue? this thing didn'
t just start rising, it's been rising for months with consistently good dividends. what are you going to pull out and put it into? sdice? the funny thing about the dividends is friedcat could cash out as the price is rising and pay that as a dividend and it would be insignificant. 150 BTC * $125 = $19000. once a week, cash out 20k and pay it to the growing herd to
mircea_popescu: "My partner and I had reservations for 6:45. By 9:30, we still hadn'
t received our pizza."
furuknap: Oh, I know. The herd thing is dangerous. I just hope it doesn'
t taint BTC assets in general as bubble shares. I fear the train may have left for AM.
furuknap: Actually, I hope this buyer doesn'
t get burned more than they can survive.
furuknap: I hope this buyer has a lot of spare money and really, really doesn'
t mind losing it.
furuknap: This isn'
t going to end well...
furuknap: ASICs is a specialized piece of hardware that doesn'
t really have any resell value after a relatively short time. GPUs on the other hand has resale value, can be fixed, tuned, and easily replaced, and in some cases, it can even make sense to have a few spares laying around because unused cards don'
t depreciate much and thus isn'
t an asset cost.
mircea_popescu: it certainly wasn'
t well presented seeing how nobody got it at the time.
furuknap: I'm not sure it is as random as that. I wrote the article based on a lot of questions asked on the Reddit forums and people universally tended to completely ignore the effect of price fluctuations of their gear. One miner had just bought around 50 GPUs and hadn'
t realized that when the price of LTC dropped, he actually earned more from just having that gear than from mining.
furuknap: Ah, you're arguing about the wording. That's fine. The article is trying to show that in the case of a price drop, a miner gains more coins by holding gear. Difficulty isn'
t relevant here because mining isn'
t part of the equation.
inhies: your blog post is not well presented because mircea_popescu didn'
t write it
furuknap: inhies: Mining isn'
t actually part of the scenario at all, but is elaborated in the questions at the end.
furuknap: I'm trying to understand what I did wrong, definitely. Talking about getting married as an investment doesn'
t do that.
mircea_popescu: i can'
t discern if your motivation is to understand what you did wrong or to show the world how clever you are. which is it ?
furuknap: That doesn'
t follow at all. Getting married is not an investment that can be resold.
mircea_popescu: buying mining gear isn'
t a bet on some contingent future event.
mircea_popescu: ok. inasmuch as getting married isn;
t a bet on some contingent future event
furuknap: You mean by using unrealistic numbers? The case presented is intended to simplify the scenario because it is easier to see when you don'
t need to argue with stuff like "well, my postage is cheap so selling yields more profit than that" etc.
mircea_popescu: nevertheless, it doesn'
t follow that people going on blind dates are betting on sluts.
furuknap: Can'
t really argue against math, but damn, people keep trying.
parseval: I've been planning to add one, I hadn'
t thought about adjustable periods yet, but I like the idea
parseval: It doesn'
t run on Linux anyway
furuknap: Ah... Sierracharts has some nice analysis features. If you do C++, it shouldn'
t be too hard to map that there. I've been pondering writing a BTCT trade engine module, but I realized it's 20 years since I wrote C++, so I skipped it :-)
jurov: don'
t really see any pattern other than the spread
furuknap: TAT, what do you mean, you don'
t ahve a chatbot to represent yourself while you sleep?
ThickAsThieves: How do we know you aren'
t using income to bet into the game yourself?
BitHub: right, plus bfl and avalon aren'
t exactly building a farm right?
furuknap: That's why one of the things I asked friedcat to start publishing is financial reports. Once a quarter is fine, more frequent isn'
t really necessary.
furuknap: I've tried to understand that, but I haven'
t found anything. It's mostly "we retain some money" but nothing solid about expenses, running or expected.
furuknap: True, but they announced them two weeks ago. If they get the revenue paid out as dividends in two weeks, then it takes a month to sell ฿20K, or ฿5K per week, which isn'
t enough to sustain 0.036 per week.