997600+ entries in 0.704s
mircea_popescu: volume is reported by a fixed
time interval. like a month, or a day.
_Fireball: they are
time limited, you know. It expires in a month
_Fireball: total since
the introduction of
this contract
_Fireball: you can check it if you make a
trade,
the
total volume would be updated.
_Fireball: "Their volume is listed as 320k USD, which makes absolutely zero sense" - all
trades are logged, however obviously it's not daily volume, but
total volume of a contract.
mircea_popescu: an easy mistake
to make, everyone
thinks his kids are
the smartest.
mircea_popescu: i
think he just got blindsided. he
thought bfl is
the greatest business in btc
_Fireball: honestly, by reading your blog post, I see
that you have little idea how futures exchanges work
mircea_popescu: it possibly gives you a profit
through
the mechanism delineated at
the end of
the article,
mircea_popescu: then do some fake
trading,
then reopen
the book 10 seconds after 20:00
mircea_popescu: not really.
the allegation is
that you close
the book for customers at 30 seconds before 20:00
_Fireball: if you imagine
this is ICBIT's own actions,
they could be done at any other
time of a day
mircea_popescu: but if one suspects
that
the sellout happening just before closing is not legitimate
_Fireball: a
typical limit order can be put in at any
time
_Fireball: it just
transfers variation margin, nothing is lost during
that
_Fireball: pardon, what's
the point
to place orders before clearing?
_Fireball: we don't *guarantee*
that your ISP maintains perfect connection
to
the website
_Fireball: why placing orders in
the last minute btw?
mircea_popescu: this would naturally lead
to an inference against your site.
_Fireball: we are quite careful not
to cause
too much of a flash-crash effect, so
this is a managed process
mircea_popescu: but again,
the point of most concern is
that on
the 15th
the book was closed
to some participants, but not others.
_Fireball: so if
the market is going down,
the position would be gradually liquidated well before it reachs 5 on sunday
_Fireball: this position *could be* forcefully sold if and only if
the balance (money in
the account + profit/loss in
the current
trading session) is less
than or equal
to 75% of
the
total maintenance margin requirement for
the open positions
mircea_popescu: whether my position was closed or not is besides
the point.
the part of
the article you're discussing is refering
the mechanics of
the
thing, not my own position.
mircea_popescu: monday someone deposits 100 btc, price is 10.
they buy 5000 contracts (cause of 5x margin)
_Fireball: otherwise manipulators could bring it down
to 1 and crash
the market
_Fireball: so profit/loss within a
trading session is limited by
the
trading range
_Fireball: it can't be 5 because
there is a
trading range for every session, which is a measure
to prevent such situation entirely
mircea_popescu: the 100 btc deposited are not enough, are
the contracts closed or no ?
mircea_popescu: but in
the example i gave
there would not be enough money in
the account.
_Fireball: this goes on until
there is enough money in
the account
_Fireball: nope, variation margin is
transferred,
that guy experience loss, but he still has 1000 contracts at 5
mircea_popescu: um. so suppose someone buys 1000 contracts at 10, deposits enough margin for just
this
_Fireball: "At 22:00 20:00 UTC
the site arbitrarily enforces an even lower price, wipes his margin, closes his contract and
that’s
that, random user was scammed out of his few BTC."
_Fireball: I'm referring
to
the specific line in your blog post:
_Fireball: ah, so you're
talking about
the day before.
There were no scheduled maintenance back
then, order entry was working as expected
mircea_popescu: 15NOV12 19:59 At 30 seconds until close, I saw
the expected sell order. It was larger
than I had expected, leaving about 450 contracts on
the book at 10.025. Notwithstanding
the fact
that his order would not overcome
this, I dutifully placed
the order Mircea had asked me
too.
_Fireball: mircea_popescu, - I warned
that
to prevent manipulation we are delaying clearing for half an hour and will perform some maintenance during
that
time
_Fireball: clearing is just
to
transfer variation margin
mircea_popescu: the point of most concern is smickles' report
that he could not place bids
_Fireball: it's not closed, and it was not forcefully closed yesterday
too, even considering
the massive sell off
_Fireball: I read your report, and I
think you judged your conclusions of
the fact
that
the futures contract position is closed each day after clearing
mircea_popescu: a, welcome
to
the pit. so what exactly is
the story with icbit ?
kakobrekla: mircea_popescu,
that can be done instantly while i smoke.
kakobrekla: imma gonna do it just
to prove you wrong.
thestringpuller: ive never heard a story about someone getting high, going home and beating
their wife
mircea_popescu: kuzetsa in
truth
tho, after a product matures, guarding against feature creep is
the main responsibility of
the maintainer.
kuzetsa: it's like
torvold's main
thing.
kuzetsa: I guess linus
torvolds REALLY wants
to put everything on hold until 3.7.x is out
kuzetsa: interesting... 3.7-rc6
today, but still no 3.6.7
kuzetsa: yeah, my boyfriend has
that... he uses
tumblr
though not
twitter lol
EskimoBob: I want
the full list, not some shitty 140 char. messages
kuzetsa: isnt'
that
the one
terrorists use?
jurov: inaba recovered from aneurysm.. with some lasting damage,
tho
jurov: we don't even have Attorney General for like, more
than a year.. cause president just refused
to appoint
the elected one, for basically "no reason".
jurov: i looked forward
to seeing slovakia
there
jurov: bah,
that's just 'merica
mircea_popescu: if it's la plus fresh air
then
that'd mean bucharest has fresh air. quite
the contrary
jurov: and yes, i heard rumors about bay area smog,
too
jurov: if
there are any around
mircea_popescu: stylistically
this implies
that compared
to bucharest, la has fresh air going for it.
jurov: bucharest is LA minus fresh air?
that means in bucharest
there's fresher air or vice versa?
mircea_popescu: apparently
the difference is lost on most of
the population.
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla yeah, bfl pays forum ppl
to put
them in
the signature. i pay forum ppl
to put "fuck you sec" in
their signature.
mircea_popescu: inaba sitting around explaining how he doesn't have
to learn
to use
the wot
Chaang-Noi: im pretty sure nefario did
that all by himself...