Neil: mircea_popescu: I'm not even going to ask which god you pray to. I think the answer might scare me.

Neil: You can thank me for one thing. Every diagnostic I wrote in my work on GCC was crystal clear. Unlike most GCC diagnostics.

Neil: Explains why their getting anything done takes 10x longer than a normal person I guess

Neil: mircea_popescu: True, that one is better written "Incorrect credentials"

Neil: Diagnostics that give alternatives are a sign of extreme laziness and totally suck. For example: "Note: Trade completed and/or posted!"

Neil: PR for some definition thereof

Neil: jurov: Interesting, thanks!

Neil: What I'm not clear on is given difficulty increases, how much of hash power is GPU miners, and what their dropout rate will be. That'll be a drag on difficulty until most of them are flushed out.

Neil: I never thought the bitbet about 25m by end-of-June would happen, but now it's starting to look like it will. I suspect there is hashing power / ASIC development that isn't publicized.

Neil: Was curious about the -O and -E meanings. I guess if you're recycling they don't have any.

Neil: What fundamental reason do you have to be short this stuff?

Neil: What do you get out of any of this?

Neil: Sell a bit higher than you expect?

Neil: How do you cover that?

Neil: I saw there's a listing charge of 5BTC?

Neil: Yeah; bitfunder is interesting. But there's credit risk right? (Yours?)

Neil: (by drag I mean that the next fixing of difficulty in about 5 days, is based on the previous 2016 blocks' speed, and therefore in periods of increasing hashpower includes the slower days in the first few hundred blocks; that's the drag. The reverse-drag is the added hashpower not yet online that will speed up the hashing over the next few hundred blocks)

Neil: And they don't fix it.

Neil: bitcoincharts.com is the worst. Dunno what they do, but they always start of really slow, and accelerate tremendously in the last couple of days before re-fixing difficulty.

Neil: No, just keep track myself in a spreadsheet, and add a little human knowledge. Nothing complex at all. If I were better at stats I'd do something statistical, but I doubt it gives much advantage.

Neil: Current (instantaneous) mining power is about 21m difficulty, perhaps a tad more. But because of the drag from the last few days, plus the reverse-drag over the next few days, I reckon it about evens out.

Neil: I've started doing my own thing re difficulty. I don't trust anything you get online; they all lag. And bot's don't know what humans know.