799400+ entries in 0.555s
jurov: one would have
to simulate
the players,
too.
they do
trade options more when
the rate is volatile, but how much more?
mircea_popescu: course
the results will be dubious on
the face, cause of possible bias, but still, it's research.
mircea_popescu: if you like math, one
thing you can do is define
this game as a GM construct and play a billion rounds
jurov: the problem is,
there seems
to be a correlation between loss and exhaustion of bondholders' capital
jurov: if it's >= 60
then it gets same result as all
the other bonds
jurov: and
then
they receive
the interest with
the same amounts
jurov: moment, all considered,
then 30 btc gets first removed from
the principals
mircea_popescu: is your argument
that
the average provably converges away from
the center ?
mircea_popescu: jurov now,
these are more or less
the edges of
the space.
mircea_popescu: let
the prospective issuer get
the ok of someone who knows what
the fuck
they're
talking about first.
mircea_popescu: issuance of assets is not something
that should ever be public facing.
Dimsler: but what about
the issuance of an asset
Dimsler: i've read a bit about
this
ozbot: Why I nixed p2p, colored coins and all
that jazz pe
Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
mircea_popescu: again, net. on paper in fact
they get 5 btc, of which 4.5 btc comes out of
their capital, so
they are left with 5.5 on
the books,
Dimsler: i'm hoping on some of
the eastern european development
teams push multi sig and colored coins
mircea_popescu: jurov i was waiting for you
to ok it as i had a 4th month
jurov: um, so we modelled
the mpoe extremes and claim problem solved?
mircea_popescu: Dimsler
the idea is
to replace institutionalised investors with mpex, not
to shittify bitcoin by having it look more like something dimon might easily wrap his head around.
Dimsler: the bitcoiner of 2012-2013 is hopefully going
to disappear with
the
tier 2 development
Dimsler: why
they are being replaced with real developers
mircea_popescu: Apocalyptic pretty much everyone
that knows me won't, for one.
mircea_popescu: people with no money and no brains don't count in
this world.
Apocalyptic: in other
terms, how many people woud actual not blindly run
to bitcoin.org
to update because
they heard
they should
mircea_popescu: Apocalyptic extremely widely accepted. here's a secret of polychinelle : starting with about 6.0,
the versions of bitcoin fromn
the so called "dev
team" have just about zero support.
Apocalyptic: what would be interesting
to know is
that if at some point
they would go for it, how widely accepted would be a fork
that preserves
the actual model
mircea_popescu: you just can't
take your own money out of your own bank anymore, is all.
Dimsler: well
the problem with
the main fiat economies is usury
pankkake: it doesn't change
the bitcoin protocol
though
mircea_popescu: they're
the people we wish
to kill, and
they're
the reason we even work with bitcoin in
the first place
Apocalyptic: part of
the beauty of
the bitcoin protocol resides in how simple it is
to just have an address and like mircea said
this is a solution
to a non-problem
mircea_popescu: and
that periphrase does not only name mike hearn, even if it fits him so well. in fact,
there's a legion of
this sort of scum floating about.
mircea_popescu: unless you're an impotent fuckwit with delusions of self-importance who imagines
that if he's eaten catered food under enough cheap false ceilings he now has something
to say on
this - or any other -
topic.
pankkake: well women should wear collars, but I disagree on
the collar implementation
mircea_popescu: as if
this is a problem
that actually needs a solution at any point.
mircea_popescu: "because
this way
the woman can't lie about when she feels like getting laid"
mircea_popescu: pankkake what is your definition of "better way" ? like, instead of a woman
telling you when she's ready
to fuck, she wears a collar sold in a shop which beeps ?
mircea_popescu: jurov yes,
the point of modelling is
to go
through
the extremes
jurov: so
then
the
total loss attributed
to bonds is 55.5 BTC... rather extreme example
pankkake: I just see it as a better way
to do <a href="bitcoin:whatever">
pankkake: I said it's OK except for
the reliance on CAs :)
Apocalyptic: pankkake, you said earlier
the payment protocol looks fine
to you, did you know Hearn pushes for SSL
to be part of it with all
the centralized cert authority issues it implies ?
jurov: my opinion is
that it's extremely unlikely
mircea_popescu: i don't know right off, but are you proposing
that
two years of mpoe covers
the entire universe of possibilities, and nothing new will ever happen in
the future ?
jurov: won't
the 40 get 15%
too?
mircea_popescu: 10 gets 1.5, 40 gets .75,
the remainder 2.75 goes
to shareholders.
jurov: this requires your bond be bigger
than sum of all
the others
jurov: i rather would like
to see how you can get
touched at
that rate and *not* end up with a loss.
mircea_popescu: jurov basically you seem
to me
to proceed on
the
theory
that "large capital needs" necessarily means "mpoe makes a loss".
this seems baseless.
benkay: suggesting
that you wouldn't get
touched at
that rate
jurov: actually, because if you ask 50%,
then EVERYONE, even people who asked 4% will get it
mircea_popescu: however,
the capital needs as a volume of btc and
the losses as a % are not necessarily correlated
too well.
mircea_popescu: his
theory is
that when shtf and bonds get eaten up you may lose.
jurov: 20% (or dunno how much it was) isn't
terrible lot?
benkay: you won't make any money, but you won't lose a
terrible lot either
benkay: har arguably
the best
thing
to do with 100 btc is put it on deposit as a bond with MPOE at like 50%
benkay: chasing return on btc is a great way
to loose btc
Apocalyptic: I still don't get wtf Hearn is doing at
the foundation's head position
mircea_popescu: well, unless mpoe makes 25% profit on a stable month and
there's nobody else
there, in which case you walk away with 25%
jurov: and when
there is loss you cover it alike with all
the other bonds
jurov: if you ask 30%
then you get nothing while btc rate si stable
jurov: and end up actually worse in
total
than people who asked 4%
jurov: that would work if
the bonds did not eat
themselves.
mircea_popescu: the stats as reported are overall, and moreover
they misrepresent data in a sort of implicit leveraging
benkay: just don't chase rate around. leave bond deposit requested premium nice and high. forego interest during periods of low interest, capture
the high interest periods after
the bot gets hammered in a given month.
benkay: right? unless i misread
that spreadsheet
jurov: benkay did you see
the stats?
benkay: it's a good fleecing of
those who're willing
to settle for .45 or whatever it was hovering at before
the last hammering
benkay: it's profitable for
the bondholders who insist on a good rate
jurov: i mean, outside of
that. and it's still far from profitable (for bondholders)
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [KCIM] [PAID] 2.17250000 BTC
to 86`900 shares, 2500 satoshi per share
benkay: well
the mpoe bot for one but i dunno if
that counts for people
mircea_popescu: you don't realise it now, but in a decade being able
to point
to a verifiable 10 year history will mean you can have any job you want.
cads: yeah, earlier on I figured
that I could probably do some awesome research in finance just by reflecting on bitcoin and continuing
to learn math
mircea_popescu: cads seriously now : it's a vast field, it's by far
the most important
thing happening on planet earth for now,
the majority of people "involved" are carpenters by
trade, if not professional welfare leeches.
cads: mircea_popescu: I'd imagine
there are people
that have already adapted models for
things like
the
the bitcoin options
trading house