787600+ entries in 0.455s
koin3d: its about
time it gets flushed
koin3d: called what?
that
turd was floating for a year
mircea_popescu: Apocalyptic what's even funner is
that in another coupla weeks everyone will have called it months ago in
their own estimation :D
Apocalyptic: mircea_popescu, funny
thing is
that you called it months ago
koin3d: im pretty sure most of
the volume on gox was karpeles
koin3d: so what do mtgox
traders do considering both btc and usd are now locked
koin3d: oversold readings on gox worse now
then silkroad
Chaaang-Noi: kako
there was some clearification on
the laws it was seen as anti btc and really making btc illegal in russia, however it was moistly FUD as it was an old law
koin3d: last few weeks were
trending down on no volume = bad sign
Chaaang-Noi: kako
that and
the russian news and
the apple
thing and
that we need
to go lower anyway
KRS-One: its certainly fueling
things
though
Chaaang-Noi: im waiting and ready
to buy back in if i need
to
KRS-One: Like mircea_popescu said a few weeks back
there will be lower prices, capitulation and a slow and steady rise
to
the next bubble again..Seems reasonable.
KRS-One: it will be
time
to start buying kakobrekla
kakobrekla: KRS-One whats with
the btc, we are poor again
KRS-One: maaaaaaaaan everybody's buggin about
the market prices going down.
davout: we used
to have a bitcoin charts dedicated api point, which i haven't re-enabled since we relaunched
davout: because i haven't bothered
to look into it since we relaunched
Namworld: He might be sleeping at
this
time
tho
mircea_popescu: i guess people misunderstanding
the large option play.
herbijudlestoids: anyway, going for a long walk... if youre around when i get back i wouldnt mind askin you about
the huge volatility spike on MPOE
herbijudlestoids: its not zh content, repaste from FT, i used
the zh link cos most people dont have a FT account
Namworld_AFK: No, I don't. I worked at BitVPS for a while
tho
Chaaang-Noi: never
thought id buy more crypto but if we get low enough
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids if only press mattered, all
these doge/maxkeiser/go/blablacoins would be oh so important.
herbijudlestoids: i had never heard of it, but in
the last few days iv seen articles about
them landing some high profile sounding clients
Chaaang-Noi: i like bitpay but im glad
there are other options
herbijudlestoids: gocoin appears
to be a payment processor competing against bitpay
assbot: !bash <lines> (desc: bashes last <lines> lines
to bash) {short: !b}
assbot: !mp <signcrypted dpaste.com url> (desc: returns
the response from MPEX order)
assbot: !ticker <exchange> <ticker> (desc: returns current
ticker values, supported: MPEX, HAVELOCK, BTCTCO) {short: !t}
benkay: maybe i better dig into
the satoshi emails or something.
benkay: leastaways horribly specified on
the wiki
benkay: do you know what's a horrible protocol?
the bitcoin network protocol.
that's a horrible protocol.
herbijudlestoids: is
the market so locally inefficient
that price forecasting ability plays no role in alpha generation?
herbijudlestoids: well in
the case of MPex options are you saying
there is no rho?
herbijudlestoids: lemme know how your IV only model works if MPBOR decides
to move or whatever
mike_c: IV is
the only variable
herbijudlestoids: nubbins`: one last point is
that you can build positions
that are much more dependent on IV
than price, for example if i buy a call and buy a put for
the same strike and expiry
mike_c: nubbins, options are entirely about volatility. option pricing is "known", with volatility being
the only variable in
the equation.
nubbins`: ah, like
the Scientific American of finance
herbijudlestoids: nubbins`:
there is
this awesome blogger bill luby, he does vixandmore.blogspot.com ...hardcore options geekery explained for
the masses.
nubbins`: herbijudlestoids,
that clarifies
things a bit, but i
think what i really need is
to visit
the library
dexX7: matches one
to one
dexX7: it's
the old one from 2011
nubbins`: and
to answer your question, no, i don't have an account at gox
sypher_: there's a kinda bad news I'm reading on
the
troll box
herbijudlestoids: i.e. shorting a $2000 call has
the same/similar payoff profile (at settlement)
to long $2000 put
benkay: sometimes a heavier factor
than other
times.
benkay: yes.
that is a core valuation principle.
nubbins`: is it fair
to say
that
the price of a given option indicates not only an expectation of price, but of volatility?
herbijudlestoids: for example, if
the option is far OTM (e.g.
the price of BTCUSD is $1 and
the call is for $2000)
then
the value of
the option will consist mostly of vega and
theta (which is decaying as
time goes on)
herbijudlestoids: depending how far ITM/OTM (in
the money or out of
the money)
the option is depends on what
the market price of
the option actually consists of
herbijudlestoids: some of
the greeks are numeric values
that you can simply calculate, like
theta, which is
the
time value of
the option.
herbijudlestoids: the forecast isnt just for where
the price of BTCUSD will be relativeto $2000 in a years
time
herbijudlestoids: so
the market is implying, forecasting,
trying
to get
the best price for what
they
think
the options are worth
herbijudlestoids: does
that make sense?
the market price of any given option might be very far away from what your model reckons it should be
herbijudlestoids: the market price of
the options "imply" what
the market is considering
the value of
those greeks will be at settlement
herbijudlestoids: now aside from all of
this,
there is
the current market price
that
the options are worth
herbijudlestoids: there is no set in stone method
to calculate
the value of an option.
there is
the black scholes model which has its proponents and detractors. regardless of which model you use,
there is a bunch of standard inputs called
the greeks
sypher_: nubbins`,
think about how i feel; knowing
that you're a whole 2 legs over my head. :-)
nubbins`: you're
talking about a foot above my head here, but
the failing is mine, not yours