log☇︎
719900+ entries in 0.376s
alexsanjose: but wait it s not 4 am there
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose bets as in propositions get rejected, because not everything can be bet on. see the faq on bitbet, it details it.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: Because MP, kakobrekla and MP's slavegirls don't think it is interesting is the big rejection reason
alexsanjose: u still there?
mircea_popescu: anyway, spent some time in san jose, originally landed there planing to stay a week, ended up staying like 3 years.
alexsanjose: is there a min or max for the bets?
alexsanjose: y tu?
BingoBoingo: Thanks to Overstock.com replacing Roger Ver as used electronics Bitcoin Jesus I am kinda confident I am BAC 0.257 drunk
mircea_popescu: eres tica ?
alexsanjose: was just there covering elections but back in mexico city
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose is that san jose as in san jose, cr ?
alexsanjose: this is the best interview ever :)
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: I bet there and I submit bets to there. More than half of my submitted bets have been rejected. I' a regualr in this channel though.
mircea_popescu: he just likes talking to girls.
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla your bitcoin wallet thanks you for your loyalty.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Well not this decade.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: They really can't. Even mircea_popescu can't affect when the world series ends.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Of course it is. And the best practice for this is plato when he is modeling a drunk crowd in the dialogues.
alexsanjose: haha! and do u deliberately try to space out the bets so a tricle of them are coming due every week month etc?
kakobrekla: not more than bitcoin wallet
alexsanjose: for example there is a way to say "my" when u mean "myhusband" and a different "my" for "my bitcoin wallet" cuz humans matter more
asciilifeform: today i lined up a bunch of inglischers and had them try reading Ro street signs, menus, etc. from photographs.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: Sometimes they come up with bet, sometimes assholes like me write bets http://bitbet.us/bet/769/crimea-2-electric-boogaloo/
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo you know it occurs to me it's probably like a particular cognitive skill, being able to follow irc convos. "disentagle a skein of thought" as the expression went.
alexsanjose: no its just interesting. for english speakers romance languages sorta open your world view when they teach u subjunctive and then the african languages is like a whol different kettle of fish
mircea_popescu: this is irc, we got time.
artifexd: I want something more push-y than pull-y
mircea_popescu: what do you mean where they come from o.O
kakobrekla: artifexd rss feeds are linked on right side, if that is what you need
alexsanjose: and where do the bets come from? is that something you guys come up w ?
BingoBoingo: much of the profit comes from infrequent, but increasingly frequent massive bets
mircea_popescu: i think it's about 10% as a degree of magnitude
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose you know it's in the reports, there's a special line for advertising
BingoBoingo: It varies month to month
alexsanjose: so what is the breakdown on profit -- rake v advertising?
mircea_popescu: artifexd better pull from the feeds tho. kakobrekla what were the feeds again /
artifexd: Hey, look at that. There's even a twitter feed that I can pull from.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: That bet I linked http://bitbet.us/bet/34/an-asic-unit-from-either-bfl-avalon-or/ gives a good dataset for understanding how successive bets affect bitbet winnings
mircea_popescu: http://www.alexalper.com/resume/ << check it out, the luddite has a dedicated website.
asciilifeform: i notice that the folks who are innocent of python et al can still work a spreadshit. somebody maybe post a spreadshit for them.
mircea_popescu: artifexd no there's feeds.
artifexd: Is there a feed or would I have to continually poll?
alexsanjose: and does that account for 100 pct of the profit?
alexsanjose: and what s the rake?
mircea_popescu: TestingUnoDosTre bounce artifexd mike_c and the rest of the supermath python gurus : maybe write a script that takes a bet and spits out the moving odds as the bets come in ?
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: I dunno if you parse python much, but the math for calculating winnings is all in here https://bitcointa.lk/threads/is-bitbet-us-buggy.86712/#post-1492473
BingoBoingo: If you lose you lose. That part is simple. Winning is the complicated part.
alexsanjose: its february, 2015. obama has overlooked a growing trend and failed to mention those two syllables -- i lose 100 pct of the bet i placed, no?
BingoBoingo: If you win though, it really depends on what happens to the pot after you place your bet. You could win more or less.
alexsanjose: wouldnt i tho?
alexsanjose: if i lose i lose the entire 1 btc i bet, correct?
alexsanjose: but on the mechanics of it, kust to be simple, assuming the odds dont change -- i put in 1 btc and get out 1.24 if i win
BingoBoingo: asciilifeform: And that is what decay's sanity. Not the stress, but the roundworms
BingoBoingo: And bets are committed until the bet's resolution.
asciilifeform: other fun feature, in my eyes, is that a prediction market has an... action market, 'inside, wiggling to get out.'
alexsanjose: the odds shift as the numbers of players and amounts of bets shifts the balance on either side?
BingoBoingo: To guarentee odds you may need to place multiple bets.
BingoBoingo: The thing is mutual betting so it is pile of money and weight versus other pile of money and weight.
BingoBoingo: Large bets can move the pot considerably.
alexsanjose: and the odds below lay out your earnings should u win
alexsanjose: so u bet the sum that u wish
alexsanjose: prolly some sort of ethics violation there. i ll ask tho
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: You can place any amount. It may be easier if you go through the process of placing a position on BitBet. I can give/lend you a balance to do this depending on your agency's ethic's rules.
asciilifeform: this'll be like yeltsin, standing on tank, saying '-former- soviet union.'
alexsanjose: it costs me 0.22 BTC if i want to bet yes?
alexsanjose: so if i bet that obama is going to say bitcoin before 2015
BingoBoingo: Through a respect for the immutability of actual history
BingoBoingo: Instead of accounts everything is merely a ledger balance, forced into the right place
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: They way Bitbet works is everything is tied to addresses
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose that'd be part of the great power of bitcoin. you don't need accounts.
alexsanjose: transfer money from their wallet
alexsanjose: i was just surprised because i know the sites i m familiar with require custoemrs to set up an account
BingoBoingo: Currency died in the 1970's it is all about assets nao
mircea_popescu: not all that useful these days.
mircea_popescu: well because without bitcoin you don't exist. also because you need it to bet on bitbet.
BingoBoingo: Heads is Multibit, tails is Electrum
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: We're going to flip a coin.
alexsanjose: why s that
mircea_popescu: well then we got problems.
asciilifeform: alexsanjose: it takes about the same titanic intellectual effort as operating... a lift.
alexsanjose: so i read the faq on the website, but can you walk me thru placing a bet?
ozbot: Portret al artistului la tinerete pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
mircea_popescu: i'm also worth a few million atc, i guess, which is a similar problem. what sort of business opportunity did i see there ?
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose i'm worth about a million give or take.
alexsanjose: but when u earn 1.19395524 BTC in March, a portion goes to shareholders, a portion to operations and a portion to u no?
asciilifeform: 'Fairy Tales are blamed for teaching children that there are such things as monsters. Children already know that there are monsters. What Fairy Tales really teach is that monsters can be killed.'
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose i don't do business per se. i tend to provide critical infrastructure pieces for bitcoin finance is all.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: The erstwhile competitor to BitBet was betsofbitco.in (Operator has since disappeared)
alexsanjose: but what made you decide in jan 2013 that this would be a good business to get into?
mircea_popescu: it's a pattern, this.
mircea_popescu: at the time we made bitbet, there also existed a "competitor", i forget the exact thing
mircea_popescu: you're missing a lot of history. at the time i made mpex, there existed a "competitor", glbse. it was basically a scam, and has meanwhile died
asciilifeform: (for some reason i always thought of this situation as 'rotor/stators')
asciilifeform: mircea_popescu: rick and morty do timisoara << lol! morty is 'rotor'!
mircea_popescu: this is supposed to be ostentatious ? since when is russian paper worth anything ?
mircea_popescu: "He’s ostentatious – he once folded up paper airplanes made of money and threw them from Vkontakte office windows."
BingoBoingo: Plz tell me it was thissun http://www.thedrinkingrecord.com/
alexsanjose: so, mircea_popescu, what drove u and your cofounder to set up bitbet
alexsanjose: I saw it on a website that was evaluating bitcoin gambling sites
alexsanjose: wow lots of info thanks