687800+ entries in 0.394s
mircea_popescu: and in
that context, a large capital base works you no harm.
mircea_popescu: this is why i introduced
the bitcoin gambling
thing.
to point out
that
the world is a snowglobe whether you are big enough
to notice or not.,
mike_c: ok :) fine. so if you assume
the people worth
talking about all have an enlarged capital base,
then we can scope
the conversation
to
that.
mircea_popescu: but would be
the opportunity of a lifetime for a random girl off
twitter.
mircea_popescu: like you know, a dribblet of cum i spilled on
the floor is something my well sated slaves ignore
mircea_popescu: it's a waste of everyone's
time, just, others don't have
the luxury
to notice.
mike_c: it is
the opportunity of a lifetime for
the guy with 100k.
mike_c: because it is a waste of yoru
time.
mike_c: with $200b in equity you ignore
that shit.
mike_c: with a huge capital base you don't even consider
the pizzerias
mike_c: well,
this is kind of my point.
mircea_popescu: or,
there's benkay's ocean mining conglomerate, which will gain 10% over
the same decade
mircea_popescu: mike_c well,
there's
this chain of pizzerias, which will be doubling each year for
the next decade, yielding a bunch of pizzerias.
BingoBoingo: Hauling
trash can offer great returns, but it isn't very fun or glamorous.
mike_c: i am failing
to map
that metaphor onto our financial discussion.
mircea_popescu: to put it another way : behind door A
there's a bacterium. in
the proper agar it doubles every half minute. behind door B
there's a naked buxom beauty. you can pick either door,
the prize will be entirely yours
to dispose as you please.
mike_c: why would i expend effort on something
that may significantly increase 1% of my base instead of something
that will only moderately increase 20% of my base? it would be unprofitable.
mike_c: only so much
time in
the day. it is unprofitable
to spend it on endeavors
that can't return a reasonable percentage on my enlarged capital base.
mike_c: but, not
to sidetrack if
that wasn't
the main point.
mike_c: it is not profitalbe
to spend my
time making 50% on 2m instead of 2% on 100b.
mike_c: removed from
the world of "profitable options"
mircea_popescu: the fact
that you don't want
to do it doesn't mean it's been removed.
mircea_popescu: as a smart guy you can still say all
thestupid shit you may want
to say
mircea_popescu: as a hot guy you can still fuck all
the ugly chicks you want
mike_c: not sure i give you
that. different deals are exposed. some are removed.
mircea_popescu: this is precisely why i said earlier 200bn isn't
the concern.
the bigger you grow,
the more deals are exposed
to you.
mircea_popescu: EXCEPT if you're worth ~7 mn btc.
then
the deal is actually fair for both ends.
mircea_popescu: in fact,
the poorer you are,
the further your fair deal is forsanity
mircea_popescu: mike_c now obviously as fair as
this deal would be
to you, it's still not particularly fair
to jd.
TheNewDeal: but even your 2/3 chance of a 2X payout, kelly says
to bet a fraction of your stake
mike_c: you mean 100 vs 20999900?
then yes.
mircea_popescu: but if you were proposed
to either lose all your btc or win all
the btc
there are,
then it'd be a fine shot ?
mircea_popescu: mike_c now, could we say
that since you're proposed
to either lose all your money or win 100 btc
this deal isn't very good,
mike_c: mircea_popescu: and i mean of course not on
the betting or investing side.
TheNewDeal: its a place
to dump btc
that you no longer wish
to own
mircea_popescu: consider all you have is 100 btc, and jd offers you a shot at 200 btc. would you
take
the deal ?
mircea_popescu: the more a % of your stake
the income is,
the more risk you
take.
TheNewDeal: i just read your article about kelly
the other day
mike_c: so,
TheNewDeal: kelly says in
the simple case (1:1 bet)
to bet your edge.
TheNewDeal: in reference
to
the mike_c 95% invested
TheNewDeal: MP, so what's
the magic number of % assets invested for us young guns
benkay is on
tenterhooks, goes back
to
the editor
mircea_popescu: actually
that's not particularly concerning,
the size.
mike_c: i wouldn't want
to be him because he's
trying
to grow a capital base of $200B.
mike_c: he owns lots of companies outside US, and
the US companies sell more product outside america
than inside. US could get wiped off map, and as long as Omaha was left standing he'd be ok.
mircea_popescu: i wouldn't want
to be in his shoes. he's saved by old age, and by
the fact
that business cycles used
to be slow.
mircea_popescu: the class risk is exactly
that. he's now stuck derping about how "america will prevail"
mike_c: let's
take a fiat example. warren invests in good companies with durable competitive advantages and global footprints. what's
the class risk? he only invests in good companies?
mircea_popescu: the class risk is
that in general, all
the fashionable stuff in any space
tends
to go belly up
together a lot more
than a "unrelated" model would seem
to indicate.
mike_c: so
the class risk is
that all BTC bizness could go belly up?
mircea_popescu: ie,
they're not likely
to be unrelated, whether you know
this or not.
mircea_popescu: the reason
the
theoretical you wants
to buy "shitty" investments is
that buying all
the good investments and only
those exposes you
to a class risk
mike_c: i'm not saying put 95% of your cash in pirate. or in a variety of investments
that are all actually putting
their money in pirate.
mike_c: lots of investors jump off buildings during every crisis cuz
they are dumb.
mircea_popescu: recently killed himself, over
the net results of
the wrong answer
to
that question
mircea_popescu: french aristocrat from a family
that had been doing banking for centuries
mike_c: why sit around with a huge cash balance
that isn't growing when
there are good investment opportunities?
mircea_popescu: anyway, what i had in mind just got shot because i wasn't expecting you
to be
this reckless :D
mike_c: no, you're invested because no reason not
to have your money out working for you
mike_c: my
theoritcal model would be 95% invested, yeas
mike_c: to be clear (for
the last
time) we aren't
talking about me, but what I would recommend.
mike_c: ok. seems like a broad definition, but
then yes, i suppose
the
theoritcal me is invested in securities.
mircea_popescu: doesn't have
to be
the personal you.
the
theoretical you, as described by must always eat cake
mike_c: hypothetically what do you call panacea?
that's not stock and shit
benkay: ;;later
tell fluffypony frisky.holdings lol you can use
that for your future fund
benkay: and was paid
to deliver
this message
bitcoinpete: mircea_popescu benkay
tallits also bulk up
the shoulders nicely, hiding
the kind of scrawniness
that can only come with paper pushing
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla: <frankenmint> like if
the market goes sideways
then use arbitrage otherwise play swing
trades < yes make it so if
the market goes sideways
then use arbitrage otherwise play swing
trades <<
the humour of
this has not been lost on me.
mircea_popescu: frankenmint: why couldnt i simply pass on
the link directly
to
the cli << you could open
the link in a browser and past
the contents directly
to
the cli
assbot: BtcAlpha.com F.MPIF
Tracker estimated NAV per share: 0.00021703 BTC (Total: 434.08 BTC). Last
trade for F.MPIF on MPEX was at 0.00021725 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: benkay just sayin', you never know what
the REAL purpose is.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Generally in
the US baseball caps are used
to hide bald spots and
thinning hair. I kind of
though
tthe concept was cribbed from
the Jews.
benkay: tallit's an important gift
to
the newly adultified.
benkay: leastaways
that's how i've always read it. odds of me being wrong on a
thing are like 9:1