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mircea_popescu: (such as, for instance, if the company goes bankrupt you can't be clawbacked
mircea_popescu: but out of the bank savings you can buy a lot of options insurance.
mircea_popescu: cutting out the (significant) bank fees for letters of credit
mircea_popescu: FabianB_ would most definitely be worth it in that scenario.
mircea_popescu: so baked in is a convenience cost too. people don't seem to be doing nearly enough of their own offering, much prefering the instant execution of bot offer.
mircea_popescu: an important point tho is that you don't HAVE to take the bot offers
mircea_popescu: this has happened like i dunno, a dozen time in btc this year
mircea_popescu: you don't often see eur gaining 5% over usd in 24 hours
mircea_popescu: but in general : big price swings are better served by long positions. fine price movements are better served by short positions.
mircea_popescu: sgornick i guess you have a point. i recently switched my blog from romanian to english, so i kinda intend to make it the source for results. but i guess a link can't hurt anything.
mircea_popescu: but in what you say is implicit you do care which way prices go. that's why buying insurance for price changes makes sense.
mircea_popescu: if you expect price to rise then you want either long puts or short calls
mircea_popescu: "I also just got off the phone with Philip Moustakis. Nice guy. We chatted for about an hour."
mircea_popescu: Maybe Phil will even sign up and answer your questions (but that may be a conflict of interest for him).
mircea_popescu: spent about a day and a half in airport detention. maybe he pulled a nefario, it's unclear yet.
mircea_popescu: Diablo-D3 roger ver was detained in macau airport. apparently is on his way to hk atm
mircea_popescu: i mean, if you believe this you can go put your own CALL offers in there, neh ?
mircea_popescu: the rational thing for people to do is go in the midmarket imo
mircea_popescu: what you're saying does make sense, in general. just, btc is yet too low volume and i don't trust half the quant analysis results
mircea_popescu: then i'd prolly prefer adding more capital than following the mkt
mircea_popescu: atm i have the capital to anchor. if it becomes a problem and the bot is too often sold out
mircea_popescu: how would it know what's more time-resistant neutral position ?
mircea_popescu: if it's one of the people who sold a lot in the dump it makes sense
mircea_popescu: inasmuch as if they would have otherwise sold/bought on the mtgox market for sure.
mircea_popescu: people keep fearmongering re the us government, but my intel shows the chinese govt will be our real enemy.
mircea_popescu: the plain stat is scheduled for an overhaul, but this won't happen for a while yet to give people who are using it atm to provide 3rd party services to migrate to statjson first
mircea_popescu: ya, mpex is not doing your accounting, you have to do that part yourself.
mircea_popescu: or if you never issued a stat in october, issue one and it's there
mircea_popescu: but the point is, two things take out usd from mkt, one thing adds more btc
mircea_popescu: some people added significant hashpower and are probably selling the btc
mircea_popescu: bitinstant closed down ; some other service closed down
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller ask him to get rid of css on coinbr :D
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller in general the capital is the key criterion. if you plan to do k's of btc you probably want mpex. if you plan to do 10s of btc you prolly want coinbr. if hundreds it's messier.
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller the declared limit is 2 days. it usually takes significantly less.