log☇︎
407700+ entries in 0.138s
mircea_popescu: well ya
mircea_popescu: benkay conspiraci!
mircea_popescu: apparently even posting pics takes > 1 week and even so it's mostly selfouting
mircea_popescu: talking about benkay's eternal secrecy.
mircea_popescu: i wonder how long it takes till everyone is identified
mircea_popescu: lol
mircea_popescu: this after me asking her if she knows about picture taking which i think she misunderstood as being asked whether she;'d like to pose for us
mircea_popescu: and she got all blushed up
mircea_popescu: jurov actually when i paid on saturday i left a tip saying "and this is for excellent photographic services" poiting at the little cute girl that took pics
mircea_popescu: haha
mircea_popescu: what do you need romanian lawyer for anyway ?
mircea_popescu: lol
mircea_popescu: money girl.
mircea_popescu: anyway, girl next to the lawyer is the cfo
mircea_popescu: jurov lol. he's not very english friendly
mircea_popescu: crop that for instance.
mircea_popescu: http://polimedia.us/dtng/c/src/134679696766.jpg
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla you need a better forum avatar.
mircea_popescu: wait what ?
mircea_popescu: lmao. basically people think cheek equals business nao
mircea_popescu: e product to 75,000 and then to 50,000 units (for a more targeted customer base). Birchbox only wanted to pay for a purchase order of 400 units after receiving 50,000 units for free.
mircea_popescu: “Birchbox requested 300,000 units of a product for free; in return, they said that could offer a conservative purchase order of 400 units for that product if it was received well by their sampling audience.” Birchbox also requested a special sample size, which Ms. Chan would need to create, that would yield at least 3 uses of the product. After Ms. Chan negotiated with them, they lowered the amount of requested fre
mircea_popescu: fear, greed, cleverness
mircea_popescu: ya well, sometimes those curves meet
mircea_popescu: that'll make you money in that scenario
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves so then sell short puts/calls
mircea_popescu: (if these numbers are worth a shit at all)
mircea_popescu: the call side cost to hedge the bond is then 7%
mircea_popescu: so they cost like 70 btc.
mircea_popescu: i mean 1000 these
mircea_popescu: O.USD.C302T for instance will make about .25 each if price goes there. so you need 100 these
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 132*3
mircea_popescu: 132*3
mircea_popescu: ;;ticker
mircea_popescu: and puts that make 250 btc if price goes down 60%
mircea_popescu: so then you need calls that will make 250 btc if price goes up 3x
mircea_popescu: if past data is any indication, say a 200% upswing or 60% downswing causes losses of about 25%
mircea_popescu: no but let's run a model here. so, 1k btc bond.
mircea_popescu: i am suspecting the bot is exactly right because everyone agrees price is making them lose money
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves well listen you can't BOTH be losers.
mircea_popescu: yeah i know...
mircea_popescu: course all this is becoming rather complicated.
mircea_popescu: as in, buy some options on the same package as the bond. maybe everyone buying shares gets to vote which way to go, calls or puts
mircea_popescu: jurov maybe an idea is to get a limited hedging involved.
mircea_popescu: that's it, one full year of dividends ftw.
mircea_popescu: nope
mircea_popescu: lol
mircea_popescu: yeah.
mircea_popescu: not how long it works
mircea_popescu: well other than that i was answering the q of how long im doing something
mircea_popescu: it may be true, but it may not help you.
mircea_popescu: just making the point that information will leak is this proposition of statistics
mircea_popescu: ya, eventually all information will leak which is why you know who killed kennedy or w/e
mircea_popescu: some people met in person lol. some haven't. each his cup of tea
mircea_popescu: it's infinity.
mircea_popescu: since i'm doing it it's not 0. unless some sort of obvious 1 hits me over the head
mircea_popescu: 0/1/infinity is the rule
mircea_popescu: other than that, some people don't care, which is why you get the names/mugs of some people.
mircea_popescu: now, the coders are often uninterested in talking to the public.
mircea_popescu: that's as to why you will likely never know who's on my short list of people i talk to / scream at / with on macroeconomic topics, finance etc.
mircea_popescu: which is, secretly.
mircea_popescu: ws people were involved since 2011/early 2012, in the only way they could be.
mircea_popescu: so, to round this up : for all the bullshit "we're getting ws involved" coming out of purely puff style start-ups like coin-whatever,
mircea_popescu: so if it's dubious, then it's not gettiong ok.
mircea_popescu: now. the compliance officer is NEVER going to ok something like "bitcoin". because he only ok's on positive factual knowledge it's ok.
mircea_popescu: people (actual people in this chan) have been sacked for nonsense like, telling a reporter they make a lot of money and are living the life.
mircea_popescu: this includes things like giving interviews even.
mircea_popescu: w/o clearing it with the compliance officer.
mircea_popescu: the rule - simplified - is that nobody can get involved into ANYTHING related to their day job even vaguely
mircea_popescu: benkay basically, it's a team of people with various types of licenses, a boss, a compliance officer and some more sdupport roles.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves naivite.
mircea_popescu: do you know how this profession is organised ?
mircea_popescu: so what now /
mircea_popescu: i talk to these people. well... they can't get involved.
mircea_popescu: no listen. the year is 2011. i get excited about this new btc thing. i know what it needs to have a chance. i know i need help. i know whose help i need.
mircea_popescu: benkay consider bitcoin. in their head.
mircea_popescu: benkay indefinitely in principle. unless something happens to show me the model is fundamentally flawed, i think it will carry on forever.
mircea_popescu: which would never happen etc.
mircea_popescu: this because being a financial professional is highly regulated, they'd have to get an ok from their compliance officer,
mircea_popescu: is if you swore on dead saints you will never release their name
mircea_popescu: it's an issue here, i mean : for years the ONLY way you could get anyone with any sort of license to even consider bitcoin
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves some care more than others.
mircea_popescu: well at least make some motherfucking sense
mircea_popescu: i'm giving a slightly different approach a go.
mircea_popescu: hey, it's btc you know ?
mircea_popescu: yeah.
mircea_popescu: not really, no. but anyway. it isn't/never was a matter of "do some research child". in the sense that i answered if asked, but in general stuff is known.
mircea_popescu: yeah i thin kthere's some conflation at work here.
mircea_popescu: i don't follow benkay ?
mircea_popescu: if he doesn't trust me that's pretty much of no import. if i don't trust him that's a serious impairment on his future.
mircea_popescu: trust is this directional affair.
mircea_popescu: he is proving himself to me.
mircea_popescu: after all, i'm not proving myself to random unknown noob on the forum
mircea_popescu: whereas being an upstart would not ?
mircea_popescu: you do see why dominant position would ensure one such luxury
mircea_popescu: in other words : none of this is a secret, it's known by people who care to know as it were.
mircea_popescu: guy's name is florin cristescu, it's all over that.
mircea_popescu: the famous court proceedings where i beat back the romanian govt had been amply linked but i guess you never saw that.
mircea_popescu: for instance.
mircea_popescu: http://lists.w3.org/Archives/Public/w3c-wai-ig/2002JulSep/0110.html