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mircea_popescu: dexX7 the volatility part is true but also very problematic in btc
mircea_popescu: well... like any garage sale, people like the crap buckets.
mircea_popescu: actually you should probably have 3 : i. large ; 2. small ; 3. scam (or w/e, politely named, "no income yet")
mircea_popescu: but anyway, here are your problems : put am, mpex (and used to be sdice) in there, you've got 2 mn+ btc wiping everyone else into irrelevance. you don't put any of them well... it's weird parade. (which is wjhy i suggested making two categories)
mircea_popescu: yes, it's a compromise, but what are you compromising and on what basis ?
mircea_popescu: smidge you can't arbitrarily cap things out, it makes no sense.
mircea_popescu: i think maybe in the 90s irc was bigger in europe than in the states
mircea_popescu: it'd seem to me this is an explanation not a hand-weaving.
mircea_popescu: the 2nd was decided on "whether it trades or doesn't trade" not on whether it's 0 or isn't 0.
mircea_popescu: the 1% theory is also weak, as the site charges the same total no matter who wins.
mircea_popescu: but i think the drama theory is weak. seems going the other way would have generated more.
mircea_popescu: well, as a matter of fact i can't see such a contradiction.
mircea_popescu: but anyway, the text : "S.DICE on MPEx will trade at or below .0016 BTC before October 2013."
mircea_popescu: right. so anything is higher than 0, so there yo uhave it.
mircea_popescu: well the idea is that undefined variables are nil. if there's no X trading on Y, the correct value for X on Y is 0.
mircea_popescu: s.dice used to be the bitcoin dice site, but seems justdice stole that crown
mircea_popescu: looky : s.mpoe is the bitcoin stock exchange. bitbet is the bitcoin betting site.
mircea_popescu: frb that's often the case actually. like with the josh-zerlan.com bet
mircea_popescu: actually 6 months ago sdice closure was completely off the books.
mircea_popescu: well if it makes you feel better i didn't have a bet in there.
mircea_popescu: and yes. bitcoin is what it is. you either trust or watch.
mircea_popescu: i mean people made a lot of hay about bfl delivery in may bet, but... bfl STILL hasn't delivered so.
mircea_popescu: well, the people resolving the bets are not betting. i occasionalyl make bets, but i don't think theres to date been an actually contentious one.
mircea_popescu: in principle it could split 101/102 or some shit, as unlikely as that may be. in which case 101 would go to proposer. but in no case wil lproposer be assigned more than half the house bet.
mircea_popescu: sometimes it splits 5/6 in which case 5 goes to the proposer
mircea_popescu: if the bet is even the person makes about half, roughly.
mircea_popescu: if the bet is a crapshot, the person usually makes nothing but sometimes makes a bunch.
mircea_popescu: it's simple. whenever someone makes a bet, the house splits a dime among yes/no ands puts the lower ammt on the name of the person that proposed the bet.
mircea_popescu: they're not +ev except in the perspective where you expect to lose 50%.
mircea_popescu: in general house makes about 50% back of what it bets.
mircea_popescu: Neil_ nowhere. atm it's cheaper to just eat them than account for them tbh
mircea_popescu: that's about as far removed from NUDE as it could be ozbot
mircea_popescu: granted it's only a few btc per cycle they lose, but i imagine a few btc hurt a lot in scamistan.
mircea_popescu: lmao by the look of the trades teh btcgarden people are getting raped.
mircea_popescu: dandate2 on the short term the market is a nutty machine
mircea_popescu: much like spamming is still going 20 years later in spite of the avg spammer making a loss.