388000+ entries in 0.14s
mircea_popescu: a measurement is when you measure it. not when you guess what it might have been by some circumstantial evidence.
mircea_popescu: it reminds me a lot of that character with the bitfury bet.
mircea_popescu: im not even sure whence this delusion of majority on the bunko science camp stems from.
mircea_popescu: i suspect it's just "thinking is hard and why bother" rather than "snarky is cool".
mircea_popescu: which is exactly the problem with "washing" data, such as trying to extract temperature records from soil samples.
mircea_popescu: wehen you say things like "if x bombs go off at the samer time" you're displaying exactly the misunderstanding of sampling in question : nobody guarantgees you that second is going to be exactly the second when the bombs go off.
mircea_popescu: lewicki it's a sampling problem. the same problem you eschewed earlier, as i was about to ask you if you know enough math to model the average concentration of gas A in the top tenth of a recipient holding a mixture of A and B where A is 10x as heavy as B.
mircea_popescu: guess what ?! CFC became very bad a thing just as patent on them was expiring.
mircea_popescu: since i'm reading up on this : "In 1928 they improved the synthesis of CFCs and demonstrated their usefulness for such a purpose and their stability and nontoxicity. Kettering patented a refrigerating apparatus to use the gas"
mircea_popescu: so people all over the world could trade their and their friends' carbon with each other.
mircea_popescu: nope. that'd be the strawmaning part of the entire thing i glossed over, but i guess you can add it to appeal to authority and social proofing.
mircea_popescu: dub recall the 50 / 150 year problem ? TomServo picked up on it. you failed to do so.
mircea_popescu: lewicki if you're not working with molecular sciences with me you can go read whatever you wish wherever you wish to read it.
mircea_popescu: you construct appeals to authority and attempts at social proof. i shrug and point at numbers.
mircea_popescu: lewicki well let's start with something basic. what's the atomic mass of a cpc molecule ? (any one, at your choice)
mircea_popescu: lewicki i don't consider the epa an authority in any field.
mircea_popescu: its contents broadly matches my own memory of the entire debacle.
mircea_popescu: same thing being done with lighbulbs currently, god forbid poor africans end up with homebrew industry and do the whole azn thing.
mircea_popescu: nevertheless, it got 1. everyone to buy a new set of fridges and acs, narrowly avoiding a depression and 2) rube countries that were just edging itno the tehcnology to compete were knocked back off the block.
mircea_popescu: and dense that little, if any, ever made it into the upper atmosphere. In fact, chlorides from wind-driven salt spray are a far larger constituent of atmospheric chlorine than CFCs ever were. Also, over the US where much of the CFCs were being released the amount of UV reaching the ground was decreasing during the same period (as the “ozone hole” was being fear-mongered).
mircea_popescu: The “ozone hole” is a naturally occurring result of atmospheric dynamics over Antarctica. Mainly the result of lack of sunlight in winter (remember ozone is made from O2 by UV light). The reason it was worse and has gotten smaller is that the scare was during the eruption of an antarctic volcano that was blasting enormous amounts of chlorine into the upper atmosphere. CFCs had nothing to do with it, being so stable
mircea_popescu: since it was mentioned, in case kids at home are using this to supplant their government-funded-therefore-absent education :
mircea_popescu: use dots rather than lines anyway, and postfix rather than prefix
mircea_popescu: i don't recall any tenured professor being canned for not being competent. apparently the only way to get offed is fucking a student or something.
mircea_popescu: "As soon as AGW mutated to Anthropogenic Climate Change the whole show should have been laughed off the stage and all the players terminated (tenured or not)." < now this is the case.
mircea_popescu: "No self-respecting scientist would ever utter a phrase like “the science is settled” or try to demonize dissenters." << this is kinda lulzy, seeing how i seem to recall 1900s physics being "A settled field"
mircea_popescu: no, it's a lie because stupidity. it is being promoted because money.
mircea_popescu: dub no, they're unrelated. the science is wrong ; there is unscientific interest to make it stick anyway.
mircea_popescu: "You will never go wrong betting against Paul Ehrlich. " ahaha ok.
mircea_popescu: hitler can not be possibly far behind, i've yet to see worhtless shits with delusions of grandeur simply bowing down into the dirt without a fight.
mircea_popescu: VanCleef a generation of kids that grew up being told they're special at home, at school and on tv moves on to be told it's "exceptional" by the politicians.
mircea_popescu: If you don’t have a generative account of why your formulas and coupling constants look the way they do (a generative account which itself makes falsifiable predictions), you’re not doing science – you’re doing numerology.
mircea_popescu: pankkake inasmuch as that is emphatically not science.
mircea_popescu: dub your objection just was that some random dork doesnt LOOK like a scientist ?
mircea_popescu: anyway, i quoted the paragraph on its own merits, irrespective of author.
mircea_popescu: i have no idea, i don't noprmally follow the nonsense.
mircea_popescu: hm. is this some recognised party in the entire dispute ?
mircea_popescu: which is why i even bother pointing out the obvious re "global warming".
mircea_popescu: the thing is this : stupidity should be dispersed. when stupidity concentrates, intelligent people feel the vauge cramp of "we shoulsd maybe try help these idiots ?"
mircea_popescu: i could certainly do with a different set of pretend-scientists reaching "consensus"es
mircea_popescu: and move on to aids epidemic or the nigger violence gene or w/e
mircea_popescu: well by that rationale the best solution to this entire global warming junk science rthing would be getting the media to stfu about it already
mircea_popescu: dub it is. the problem is you're the flat earth "scientist"
mircea_popescu: if the problem isn't solved, and it's genuinely what it was presented to be, why have we moved on ?
mircea_popescu: dub so basically... why are we not working on that then ? i recall the exact rethoric from the exact people twenty years ago about the ozone layer.
mircea_popescu: when the proponents start implying other people are the jesus freaks it's pretty far gone.
mircea_popescu: this is pretty good. any sort of eschatology is outright and for that reason not science.
mircea_popescu: g rather than focusing on the quality of the evidence for theory X."
mircea_popescu: "Rhetoric that mixes science with the tropes of eschatological panic. When the argument for theory X slides from “theory X is supported by evidence” to “a terrible catastrophe looms over us if theory X is true, therefore we cannot risk disbelieving it”, you can be pretty sure that X is junk science. Consciously or unconsciously, advocates who say these sorts of things are trying to panic the herd into stampedin
mircea_popescu: dub is your estimation that we have managed to save the ozone layer through concerted effort of industry, regulators and consumers over the 80s and 90s ?
mircea_popescu: pankkake not a bad read. remarkable how we don't hear anything about the ozone layer these days.